Who will win Lebanon in 2012?

[Simfan34]

Today is Lebanon's first-in-the-nation primary race.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Commentary/2012/Jan-03/158621-the-republicans-best-bet-may-not-be-whom-you-expect.ashx#axzz1iMldFaWt

This marks his second overseas endorsement.

[N.i.K.]

GAME CHANGER

[Keystone Phil]

What time do the polls close in Lebanon tomorrow night?

[Free Palestine]

Maybe if an Israeli newspaper endorsed them.  They are the 51st state afterall.

[Lief]

Unfortunately only Ron Paul was able to make it on to the ballot in Lebanon.

[CathKhan]

Lebanon's a caucus, right?

[Vasall des Midas]

Maybe if an Israeli newspaper endorsed them.  They are the 51st state afterall.

No.

[Simfan34]

Lebanon's a caucus, right?

I'm sure it's a primary.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I expect Maronites, Muslims and Druzes voting sharply across religious lines.

[Simfan34]

New Poll: Lebanon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-02

Summary:

Romney:	22%
Santorum:	21%
Huntsman:	18%
Paul:	12%
Other:	5%
Undecided:	22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Look at those cross tabs- it almost seems strictly religious- Santorum's support is 92% Marionite.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Lebanon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-01-02

Summary:

Romney:	22%
Santorum:	21%
Huntsman:	18%
Paul:	12%
Other:	5%
Undecided:	22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Look at those cross tabs- it almost seems strictly religious- Santorum's support is 92% Marionite.

PPP now polls in Lebanon as well ? Their phone bill must be sky-high !

Unless it was an Internet poll (but if this were the case, Ron Paul for sure must be leading).

[Simfan34]

Why? Everyone knows Lebanon is a state just like any other. Their primary is known for being rather important. It foreshadowed Giuliani's downfall in Florida when he preformed worse than expected here. It gave then-native son Émile Lahoud a bump in 2000 before being beaten by Bush on Super Tuesday. Then, cross-sectarian voting existed. Can we see it this year?

I really think Huntsman can gain the support of the Sunnis as well.

[Tender Branson]

What time do the polls close in Lebanon tomorrow night?

In 2 hours, which is 8pm Beirut time. Exit Polls can be expected as well. Turnout was moderate.

[You kip if you want to...]

Thought you meant the UK's Daily Star for a minute there. Would've been funnier.

[Simfan34]

Santorum has been to all six governates!

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Any word on turnout in Druze areas?

[Mr. Morden]

Any word on turnout in Druze areas?

And how about the turnout among Polaqi refugees?

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Any word on turnout in Druze areas?

And how about the turnout among Polaqi refugees?

Don't worry. I already urged my cousins to support Santorum.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

[Simfan34]

Santorum only has the Maronite vote secured, other Christian groups are strongly leaning Romney.

Did they allow expatriate voting? I know they were dithering on that issue, Lebanese abroad are heavily Maronite and that would greatly affect the results. I've also heard that Huntsman was making some inroads into the few Orthodocs. Paul has had the most mixed support, but he's still largely Sunni-backed.

[TheGlobalizer]

I *heart* this thread.  Please continue.

[Simfan34]

Tender, can we sticky this? The first exit poll results should be coming out any time now.

Unfortunately, I'm hearing reports of irregularities in parts of Beirut.

edit: here is a blank map of Lebanon's counties (and Beirut's wards) that can be colored in as the night goes on.



And the source, so we know what's where.

Has Jumblatt endorsed anyone yet? Or is he going to do one of his quixotic third party runs again that gets only 10% in his home state?

[TheGlobalizer]

Tender, can we sticky this? The first exit poll results should be coming out any time now.

Unfortunately, I'm hearing reports of irregularities in parts of Beirut.

edit: here is a blank map of Lebanon's counties (and Beirut's wards) that can be colored in as the night goes on.



And the source, so we know what's where.

Has Jumblatt endorsed anyone yet? Or is he going to do one of his quixotic third party runs again that gets only 10% in his home state?

Walid Jumblatt is clearly the Ron Paul of Lebanon.

By the way, had a fantastic feast at a restaurant in a Druze town (Daliyat al-Karmel, Israel; near Haifa) in 2006.

[Senator X]

Wait...has anyone actually seen Jon Huntsman's birth certificate?

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Significance of Lebanon primary cannot be understated.

Remember when, back in 1972, Muskie cried in Beirut? That changed the entire race.