If Europeans and Canadians could vote do you think Romney could win anywhere?

[mileslunn]

I know in Europe and Canada, Obama has a huge lead.  Do you think he would win even the most conservative parts of the countries such as Bavaria in Germany, Southeast in UK, Alsace in France, or Alberta in Canada?  Likewise do you think there is any foreign country asides from Israel where the majority of the populace want Romney to win?  I don't know if this is true but I have heard the Republicans are more popular in Eastern Europe than Western Europe.  Likewise many have suggested if Canada joined the US, Alberta would be the only red state.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Ex-Canuck here - not supporting Obama.

[Vosem]

I know in Europe and Canada, Obama has a huge lead.  Do you think he would win even the most conservative parts of the countries such as Bavaria in Germany, Southeast in UK, Alsace in France, or Alberta in Canada?  Likewise do you think there is any foreign country asides from Israel where the majority of the populace want Romney to win?  I don't know if this is true but I have heard the Republicans are more popular in Eastern Europe than Western Europe.  Likewise many have suggested if Canada joined the US, Alberta would be the only red state.

Most Israelis support Obama dude. One of those few McCain-Obama areas.

And, as for Alberta, I recall polling in 2004 actually showed Kerry leading everywhere except New Brunswick, which for some reason supported Bush.

The correct answer here is 'no'.

[mileslunn]

I know in Europe and Canada, Obama has a huge lead.  Do you think he would win even the most conservative parts of the countries such as Bavaria in Germany, Southeast in UK, Alsace in France, or Alberta in Canada?  Likewise do you think there is any foreign country asides from Israel where the majority of the populace want Romney to win?  I don't know if this is true but I have heard the Republicans are more popular in Eastern Europe than Western Europe.  Likewise many have suggested if Canada joined the US, Alberta would be the only red state.

Most Israelis support Obama dude. One of those few McCain-Obama areas.

And, as for Alberta, I recall polling in 2004 actually showed Kerry leading everywhere except New Brunswick, which for some reason supported Bush.

The correct answer here is 'no'.

Weird though as New Brunswick is generally a bellwether province not a particularly conservative one never mind Maine which it shares a border voted for Kerry whereas Bush won the states bordering the interior of BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan.  I also recall somwhere saying Bush was ahead in Poland in 2004 but I could be wrong and I believe in 2008 in the Philippines more wanted McCain to win, but I could be wrong on this.

[後援会]

Here's the important distinction. If Canadians and Europeans get to vote in American elections, and that's it, the GOP is doomed.

If Canadians and Europeans have live in the United States as well as vote for its leader, well, we've got a much easier incline there.

[Lief]

If Canadians and Europeans were forced to live in this country, I think they'd be even more adamant supporters of Obama.

[Speaker Dereich]

Here's the important distinction. If Canadians and Europeans get to vote in American elections, and that's it, the GOP is doomed.

If Canadians and Europeans have live in the United States as well as vote for its leader, well, we've got a much easier incline there.

This. If those Europeans who voted chose on the basis of party policies instead of the image they have of the Republican party most of those right-of-centerists would shift into the R column. There is no way the Democrats would win places like Alberta or most of southern England.

[mileslunn]

Here's the important distinction. If Canadians and Europeans get to vote in American elections, and that's it, the GOP is doomed.

If Canadians and Europeans have live in the United States as well as vote for its leader, well, we've got a much easier incline there.

I tend to agree here.  I think the fact neither Canadians or Europeans pay taxes maybe partly why Obama is so wildly popular in those countries still considering both areas are more socialistic in general, I think even if living in the US many would vote Democrat although over time their views may change from influence of others.  Many in both Canada and Europe see government as a force of good rather than a necessary evil thus their more left leaning tendencies.  After all many at least here in Canada cannot understand why universal health care and tougher gun control laws are so controversial in the US.  I have though met a number of expatriates who do vote GOP.  I actually met a Quebec women living in Pennsylvania who plans to vote for Romney and Pennsylvania is hardly a strong red state never mind Quebec is the most socialistic province in Canada, so you maybe onto something about living there.  I also saw a story of a man from Ottawa who lived in Georgia and voted for Bush yet all his family back home despised Bush.  But you are right if Europeans and Canadians could vote the GOP would be screwed even if they were lucky enough to win in a few areas.  

[mileslunn]

Here's the important distinction. If Canadians and Europeans get to vote in American elections, and that's it, the GOP is doomed.

If Canadians and Europeans have live in the United States as well as vote for its leader, well, we've got a much easier incline there.

This. If those Europeans who voted chose on the basis of party policies instead of the image they have of the Republican party most of those right-of-centerists would shift into the R column. There is no way the Democrats would win places like Alberta or most of southern England.

With Alberta you are certainly correct.  Not sure about Southern England.  In both countries I usually assume any area the Conservatives get over 50% would go GOP if they actually lived in the US while areas where the Conservatives win with only a plurality would probably still vote Democrat as in the case of Britain I suspect pretty much all Labour and Lib Dem supporters would go Dem as would NDP and Liberal supporters in Canada.  But certainly I agree the low Republican support has probably more to do with the fact the media portrayal of the party is one of right wing nutbars who want to make the rich CEOs richer, screw the poor, hate women, minorities, and gays and love to start wars; when in reality this represents the more extreme elements of the Republicans not all of them and I should note some Conservatives in both Canada and Britain albeit a minority subscribe to those views.  Off course there are some fundamental differences.  In both countries, the Conservatives support universal health care which the Republicans don't and support tougher gun laws, particularly in Britain, less so in Canada.  Likewise on same sex marriage the parties are more split rather than solidly against it so both are somewhat more centrist but more to be more electable.  Never mind Scotland and Quebec are quite left wing so the fact using the system both countries use and the fact it is tough to win a majority without winning any seats in either probably plays a role too.  In many ways Scotland and Quebec are probably like DC on the political spectrum. 

[後援会]

A lot of the foreigners I know have a highly inaccurate view of life in the United States. As in they think it is far better than it actually is. A family friend was visiting America from abroad and he was absolutely shocked as to how much we paid in taxes.

The idea that the rest of the world is a socialist hellhole/worker's paradise and the United States is a free market utopia/capitalist dictatorship is not true. As a percentage of GDP, the USA actually government spends about the same as Canada and Norway do and more than say, NZ. Though still less than most of Europe. The USA spends a lot more on education than most countries. Abortion laws in the USA are usually more lenient than laws in Europe. Europeans might be more "leftist" on some issues, like gun control and carbon emissions, but they may also be more right-leaning on other issues, like affirmative action, immigration, and nuclear power.

[Senator Snowstalker]

Maybe Georgia.

[mileslunn]

A lot of the foreigners I know have a highly inaccurate view of life in the United States. As in they think it is far better than it actually is. A family friend was visiting America from abroad and he was absolutely shocked as to how much we paid in taxes.

The idea that the rest of the world is a socialist hellhole/worker's paradise and the United States is a free market utopia/capitalist dictatorship is not true. As a percentage of GDP, the USA actually government spends about the same as Canada and Norway do and more than say, NZ. Though still less than most of Europe. The USA spends a lot more on education than most countries. Abortion laws in the USA are usually more lenient than laws in Europe. Europeans might be more "leftist" on some issues, like gun control and carbon emissions, but they may also be more right-leaning on other issues, like affirmative action, immigration, and nuclear power.

I would also argue on state ownership which is seen as a socialistic policy, the US is far from totally free market.  Like most of Europe, they have government owned passenger rail (Amtrak), government owned post office, which Germany and Netherlands have privatized.  With electricity although government owned ones are more common in Canada and Europe than the US, it is a mix in both.  For example here in Canada, Halifax gets their electricity from a private company while Jacksonville from a government one yet I would hardly call Halifax more conservative than Jacksonville.  Likewise a minority states have government liquor stores much like most Canada but unlike most of Europe save the Nordic countries minus Denmark.  I believe New Hampshire has a similiar system to Quebec for alcohol distribution despite the fact New Hampshire is far more conservative.  In terms of airport privatization, Europe and Canada are far further ahead as private airports are quite rare in the US unlike Canada and Europe. 

Off course you are right on the environment and gun control it is more right wing.  On immigration I would say it is more left leaning than Europe, but more right leaning than Canada mind you Alberta which is Canada's most conservative province is quite pro-immigration while Quebec which is Canada's most socialistic province is generally the least pro-immigrant.  The point being as you say a lot tend to have misguided views of the GOP.  I am no GOP supporter myself but I know many people here in Canada who want Obama to win yet their views are far closer to Romney's than Obama.

[後援会]

Well, Canada is open on immigration because almost all immigrants to Canada are relatively educated, skilled, etc. Quebec is only hostile because they get a free pass on racism because they're French.

I agree with what you've written. I've always been bugged by people who say "oh man every American party is right-wing abroad". That's frankly not true. I'd still suggest that Europeans and Canadians would favor the Democrats if they were suddenly transplanted in America, but it wouldn't be anywhere near the 10-1 margins that polling suggest.

That and the obvious fact that both parties would rapidly adjusting their platforms and positions if we suddenly added a huge new voting population into the United States. If we randomly added Canada to the USA, within a decade, I bet 95% of former Tories would be voting GOP and 95% of former NDPers voting Democrat. No clue where the Grits go (but probably mostly Democrat).

I'm personally be interested in what happens if we randomly integrated the voter base of a distinctly non-Western culture into the USA. Like if we threw Kyushu, Shanxi, or Busan into the United States.

Also, the New Hampshire system of alcohol distribution is the WORST. POSSIBLE. THING.

[Boris]

This is a really boring question today, but here are some interesting tidbits from 1988 (unfortunately the only actual poll I could find of any US election before 2000 was a September 1984 poll in Canada showing Reagan and Mondale tied):

Western leaders who were comfortable with Mr. Reagan's conservatism will no doubt hope for a Bush victory - as will Pretoria. . . . If Mr. Dukakis wins then South Africa can stand by in 1989 for the kind of sustained hostility it saw during the Carter years. But it will be more dangerous, because economic sanctions are now a very real factor rather than a remote threat. . . . Exactly what kind of chief executive George Bush would make is unclear. . . . Certainly he is well-versed in foreign policy whereas his opponent has a naive view of the world.

- The Johannesburg Star, Aug. 22.

Michael Dukakis, the Democratic Party's Presidential candidate, certainly sounds as though he appreciates Canadian concerns. He has, after all, heard some of them first-hand at meetings of New England governors and Eastern Canadian premiers. His promise of tough, effective legislation to control acid rain if he reaches the White House is a breath of fresh air to Canadians who never seemed able to persuade Ronald Reagan that acid rain wasn't caused by trees. To a Canadian, Dukakis sounds more like a red Tory than a Liberal, especially in economic and fiscal policy. . . . While he endorses the Canada-U.S. free trade pact, it is a sign that he tends more to freer trade rather than the Democrat's traditional protectionist stance.

- The Toronto Star, July 22.

Only one thing is certain, namely that there will be more government intervention in the job market under a Dukakis administration. . . . In the light of these uncertainties, it is not surprising that many of the Western economic partners are still crossing their fingers for a Bush victory. Some observers even interpreted the recent strengthening of the dollar as one such method to support Bush in the election camp.

- Rheinischer MerkurChrist und Welt, July 29. (based in Bonn, West Germany)

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/09/04/weekinreview/world-sampling-editorial-opinion-world-sees-bush-dukakis-race.html?src=pm

[Boris]

Found a poll! Carter vs. Reagan in Canada, Early June 1980

[mileslunn]

I do remember it was 43% Gore vs. 29% Bush in 2000 in Canada, the last time it wasn't overally titled towards the Dems.  Most Liberals and NDP supporters off course wnated Gore to win.  However amongst Canadian Alliance and PC supporters (the two parties merged to form the Conservatives) it was more evenly split albeit a slim majority of the more centrist PC supporters wanted Bush to win while a slim majority of the more right wing Canadian Alliance wanted Gore to win.  Mind you the PCs were strongest in Atlantic Canada which is the region Bush generally polled the best in, while the Alliance was strongest in Alberta, but after that it was British Columbia which was the province Bush was least popular in save Quebec.

I should add though if one looks at a map of Canada, most of the provinces save Alberta and Saskatchewan border blue, not red states.  In Europe, the population density is much higher so even those in rural areas are rarely far from a major centre and usually the Republican margins tend to diminish as they get closer to a large metropolitan area.  I believe in 2008 more in the Philippines wanted McCain to win than Obama while in India I believe 60% thought Bush's re-election was a good thing.  Although I suspect much of that has to do with outsourcing as the Democrats are far more likely to make it more difficult to outsource which would mean more jobs in the US, but less in India.  Also in Eastern Europe, it was far more mixed than Western Europe which was heavily slanted to the Democrats.  Lets remember during the Iraq war, most Eastern European countries endorsed the invasion whereas most Western European did not.  Off course it is all speculation on how would one vote as when one is on the outside looking in, they will give a different response then if on the inside.  I would suspect if Americans were shown the platforms of parties in Europe or Canada and asked how they would vote, you would probably find most who vote GOP favouring parties on the right and most who vote Democrat favoring parties on the left.

[mileslunn]

I should add I think a more accurate way of gaging others relative Americans would be to show each person surveyed the platform of each party without revealing which party it is and ask how they would vote.  I think when you mention the party name and leader that biases those outside more so than Americans.

[Lief]

I think you guys are underestimating just how far out of the European mainstream the Republican Party is. The Democrats/Obama are not just popular in Europe because it's trendy or whatever (though yeah, that's obviously part of it), but because the Republican Party opposes on a deep and fundamental ideological level many non-controversial and universally accepted tenets of (Western) European political and social life (secularism, the right to healthcare, a safety net, international cooperation, lack of nationalism (probably a better term for this but I hope you understand what I mean), etc.).

[BlueSwan]

I think you guys are underestimating just how far out of the European mainstream the Republican Party is. The Democrats/Obama are not just popular in Europe because it's trendy or whatever (though yeah, that's obviously part of it), but because the Republican Party opposes on a deep and fundamental ideological level many non-controversial and universally accepted tenets of (Western) European political and social life (secularism, the right to healthcare, a safety net, international cooperation, lack of nationalism (probably a better term for this but I hope you understand what I mean), etc.).

True. Amongst my students Romney has a total of one supporter (granted, there are quite few undecideds). Personally, i'm a centrist in Denmark, yet on that online test posted here a few weeks ago, I was in 3% agreement with Romney and 94% agreement with Jill Stein. Amazingly my agreement with the republican party platform was a staggering ZERO percent. In the US I would be considered a part of the far left, yet as I said, I'm a centrist in Denmark and a member of the centrist social liberal party that is left wing on social issues but moderate to rightleaning on economic issues.

[Platypus]

I don't think I know anyone personally, who isn't directly tied to the Liberal Party, who would vote for Romney over Obama. This includes Mormons, multi-millionaires, and racist bogans.

Maaaaaybe my uncle, because he's kind of 1/3 of each of those. But even he probably just wouldn't vote.

[Χahar]

To a Canadian, Dukakis sounds more like a red Tory than a Liberal, especially in economic and fiscal policy. . . .

This is fascinating.

[IDS Speaker Ben Kenobi]

Representing the opinion of Canada with the Star is like representing the opinion of America with the Times.

[Tidus]

If Canadians and Europeans were forced to live in this country, I think they'd be even more adamant supporters of Obama.

This.

[Old Europe]

Do you think he would win even the most conservative parts of the countries such as Bavaria in Germany,

A Romney win? In Bavaria? No way! Bavarians cherish their universal healthcare.

Although we could discuss whether he could win at least certain parts of Saxony or Mecklenburg... because Obama is black, you know.

[Vasall des Midas]

The American parties would be different in that case.