Who will win Lebanon in 2012?

[Insula Dei]

Don't count on Jumblatt backing out if his campaign falters outside of the Druze area's, people, because with the scores he's going to rack up in those he'll still be able to secure that all important 4th ticket to New Hampshire no matter what. If he wasn't on the ballot I'd exoect most of his support to coalesce around Romney and maybe Huntsman.

The big question of course is how well Paul is going to do in the Palestinian caucus meetings. If these are among the first to report Paul might be able to spin the evening's narrative in his advantage before the inevitable hammering in the Bekaa valley would come in.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I *heart* this thread.  Please continue.

[Yelnoc]

Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?

Hezbollah, supporting a woman?  You've got to be kidding me.  Last I heard they've stuck with Perry since August.  That oops was a moment Hezbollah could sympathize with.  Everyone knows someone's who's had a suicide vest malfunction, after all.

[Simfan34]

Yelnoc, you seem to be confusing the two branches of Hezbollah. One goes on bombing sprees, fights Israel, yadda yadda. The other is non-military, political, and is the one affiliated with the Tea Party. They're much larger, and have been around since the 20's when the US received the League of Nations mandate over Lebanon. They opposed the 66' statehood referendum and rioted in  67' when Lebanon was admitted into the Union.

Perry's secessionist comments actually were a plus with them, with their whole semi-independentism

Don't count on Jumblatt backing out if his campaign falters outside of the Druze area's, people, because with the scores he's going to rack up in those he'll still be able to secure that all important 4th ticket to New Hampshire no matter what. If he wasn't on the ballot I'd exoect most of his support to coalesce around Romney and maybe Huntsman.

The big question of course is how well Paul is going to do in the Palestinian caucus meetings. If these are among the first to report Paul might be able to spin the evening's narrative in his advantage before the inevitable hammering in the Bekaa valley would come in.

I meant that Jumblatt would run as an independent, but why not?

People often write off this primary, despite its first-in the nation status, because of its radically different demographics and religious/ethnic voting, but I think Lebanon holds a key as to various groups and demographics in back in the other 50 states.

And don't rule out the Bekaa Valley- Paul has been able to draw support across ethnic and religious lines,  and he can at least count on the ~15%-odd Sunni vote there. We'll see how it turns out.

I really don't know why Jumblatt is running in the GOP. He's an outright socialist. He's not going anywhere. I know Lebanon is, like, the only state were all groups are 50% Democrat and 50% Republican, but I see no path for him. He's not in Buddy Roemer-land. He's in Karger-land.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?

Hezbollah, supporting a woman?  You've got to be kidding me.  Last I heard they've stuck with Perry since August.  That oops was a moment Hezbollah could sympathize with.  Everyone knows someone's who's had a suicide vest malfunction, after all.

Hezbollah with Perry? You got to be kidding me, my friend. Perry, with all his talk about border security, cannot appel to Hezbollah for a very obvious reason!

[Simfan34]

BREAKING NEWS: LB GOP Chairman Samir Jaja is announcing that vote count in Bint Jbeil, Marjeyoun, and Bekaa West is being stopped. These are Paul's strongest areas!

Yet again, trilingualism makes these kinds of things difficult.

[ex-Senator X]

Is Hezbollah, as the state's Tea Party branch, still supporting Bachmann?

Hezbollah, supporting a woman?  You've got to be kidding me.  Last I heard they've stuck with Perry since August.  That oops was a moment Hezbollah could sympathize with.  Everyone knows someone's who's had a suicide vest malfunction, after all.

Hezbollah with Perry? You got to be kidding me, my friend. Perry, with all his talk about border security, cannot appel to Hezbollah for a very obvious reason!

It should be noted that Gingrich's poll numbers have been in free-fall ever since he pledged not to appoint any Muslims to government positions if elected.

A portion of Hezbollah has clearly become almost religiously dedicated  to electing Ron Paul due to his opposition to U.S. military intervention in the Middle East and his staunch support for deficit reduction (specifically cutting aid to Israel).  The real question is whether or not undecided Hezbollah voters will be willing to overlook his liberal social views such as his opposition to the war on drugs.

[Simfan34]

Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

[Insula Dei]

Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

So typically Romney to really pander to the Maronite vote. One just has to wonder what his campaign think they are doing by so completely ignoring other crucial voting blocs. With such a complete disconnect with the actual situation on the ground (even among Maronites, surely, a move as transparant as this one must feel very 1980s)I'm hard pressed to see him do better than a distant third.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

[Vosem]

I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

[ilikeverin]

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

Oh, you got me

[Simfan34]

Romney ad in French:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKzezH3-k7c

So typically Romney to really pander to the Maronite vote. One just has to wonder what his campaign think they are doing by so completely ignoring other crucial voting blocs. With such a complete disconnect with the actual situation on the ground (even among Maronites, surely, a move as transparant as this one must feel very 1980s)I'm hard pressed to see him do better than a distant third.

Yet Maronites are clearly with Santorum. This could alienate him with his Orthodox core base. Most of his support comes from non-Maronite Christians.

Perhaps if the 16 million Lebanese (who are virtually all Maronite) abroad come back, it would pay off, but until then he has to deal with the 4 million here.

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

Damn low cell-phone penetration. I would have killed to see that. Syria's primary isn't until super Tuesday, but I really think al-Assad would have made a great president. So stylish, a good record as governor! All these two states are surrounded by foreign countries, and the other 50 of our 52 in North America are... um... why did I say that?

[Lіef]

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

[ilikeverin]

Anyway, I predict Santorum victory due to other candidates splitting Muslin votes.

I don't know.  Bachmann has been seen recently campaigning in Baalbek, wearing a Muslin dress.  I've heard the Muslin-wearing fashionistas in Jdeide were very appreciative, so much so that Perry was seen a couple of days later touring through Baalbek in a Muslin dress of his own.

A common misapprehension, but Obama's Muslin dresses are indeed full-Muslin; he just prefers a wider variety of colors than is typical.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

Assad would end up like Perry.

"If elected, there are 3 things I will do to my opponents : murder them, torture them, and... wait, what was that ? Murder, torture, and... ? Oops."

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

Assad would end up like Perry.

"If elected, there are 3 things I will do to my opponents : murder them, torture them, and... wait, what was that ? Murder, torture, and... ? Oops."

I feel Assad prefers to remain Governor of Syria for life, just like Perry wants to be Governor of Texas for life.

Btw, any thoughts from will Alawites support during Syria primary?

[Simfan34]

I've heard about a movement that encourages to write-in Bashar Al-Assad, because no candidate is "conservative" enough.

I doubt anything will come of it, though. If only Assad had announced his candidacy, he could be dominating right now. It's amazing how many potential Presidents missed out on this nomination-on-a-platter -- Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bashar al-Assad, Chris Christie.

Assad would end up like Perry.

"If elected, there are 3 things I will do to my opponents : murder them, torture them, and... wait, what was that ? Murder, torture, and... ? Oops."

I feel Assad prefers to remain Governor of Syria for life, just like Perry wants to be Governor of Texas for life.

Btw, any thoughts from will Alawites support during Syria primary?

You're far too unkind. The riots this year were led by independentist leftists. It's hard to understand from here. I even heard he wants to institute term limits- no five terms as governor like dad. I think he'd make a great candidate in 2016 for the GOP. He's not a dictator, far less autocratic than Perry or Bloomberg are. This picture sums up how most feel:



Voting in Syria is far less ethnic-based than Lebanon when it comes to national two-party politics. And in any case, al-Assad has endorsed Romney.

All right, all right, we get it, every presidential candidate picks up a few muslin dresses while swinging through the two Levantine States. Back to the primary.

We have a new exit poll from Université Saint-Joseph. They've been fairly reliable.

22%  Santorum
21%  Romney   
21%  Huntsman
17%  Paul
13%  Jumblatt
6%    Others

http://www.usj.edu.lb/en/polling/primary2012/exit/2330poll03012012.pdf

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

All right, all right, we get it, every presidential candidate picks up a few muslin dresses while swinging through the two Levantine States. Back to the primary

We have a new exit poll from Université Saint-Joseph. They've been fairly reliable.

22%  Santorum
21%  Romney  
21%  Huntsman
17%  Paul
13%  Jumblatt
6%    Others

http://www.usj.edu.lb/en/polling/primary2012/exit/2330poll03012012.pdf

Looks like Jumblatt't candidacy hurts Romney.

[Free Palestine]

There's no way any Middle Eastern state would vote for anyone other than Paul.  Since Paul is the only one who doesn't worship Israel.

[Simfan34]

There's no way any Middle Eastern state would vote for anyone other than Paul.  Since Paul is the only one who doesn't worship Israel.

Most people there, being Americans, don't hate Israel. And the polls prove you wrong. His tolerance for Iranian nuclear weapons resulted in a sharp decline in both states- he went from 18% to 7% there in Lebanon.

[Free Palestine]

Well here in Best Korea he's way ahead in the polls.  But then again, he's the only one on the ballot and anyone who doesn't vote for him gets sent to a camp.

[Proud Lieberal from Northeast]

I think Governor Assad would have been a dream candidate for the GOP, had he only ran. Young (46), yet experienced (eleven years as Governor, longer than anyone in the nation). Has attractive wife and is very popular (reelected with 97.6% last time).