Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread
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Author Topic: Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread  (Read 54284 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #875 on: January 04, 2012, 01:21:42 AM »

Why did Perry do so well in southern Iowa? Do they speak with a twang and say ya'll in those parts?

After seeing those results, I think that's the case: both Edwards and Huckabee won in a landslide there.
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Smash255
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« Reply #876 on: January 04, 2012, 01:22:45 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #877 on: January 04, 2012, 01:22:45 AM »

"Sigourney Plank Van Buren" likely includes parts of the city of Sigourney and Plank and Van Buren townships.  I suspect it might be a slightly larger precinct for the county.

EDIT: Sigourney seems to be slightly more Romney-friendly, for the county.
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muon2
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« Reply #878 on: January 04, 2012, 01:23:42 AM »


Think of this as 0.1% of the precincts having problems. That's not very much. There can be a phone glitch, car breakdown carrying ballots, or some other problem with those precincts. I've seen dozens of perfectly valid events that hold up one precinct. You won't normally notice it unless the race come down to the last precinct in.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #879 on: January 04, 2012, 01:24:35 AM »

From the AP: "Iowa state GOP official Doug Heye said Tuesday there will be no recount, even if Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are exceptionally close when the vote count is finished.

Heye said votes were counted under the supervision of campaign representatives, who certified the totals. He said the numbers were double-checked when they were reported to state officials, and there is no reason to check them again."
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #880 on: January 04, 2012, 01:25:02 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?
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cinyc
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« Reply #881 on: January 04, 2012, 01:25:21 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Both counties have precincts that Romney or Santorum won.  And we don't know the precinct size, which varies, so....
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M
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« Reply #882 on: January 04, 2012, 01:25:55 AM »

Why did Perry do so well in southern Iowa? Do they speak with a twang and say ya'll in those parts?

After seeing those results, I think that's the case: both Edwards and Huckabee won in a landslide there.

There must be some Missouri influence, and Missouri (especially rural Missouri) has more Southern influence than any other Midwestern state.

Good indicator of Santorum's problem - to win, or even make a real go of it, as the stronger conservative, you need to win the South. I'm not sure that Santorum will resonate there. Gingrich and Perry could have been viable, at least as Huckabee/Edwards like sectional candidates.

This nomination is all over but the shouting, barring late entries.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
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« Reply #883 on: January 04, 2012, 01:26:06 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #884 on: January 04, 2012, 01:27:26 AM »

John King on CNN said the two precincts are from Clayton and Lee Counties according to his conversations with the State Republican Party
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #885 on: January 04, 2012, 01:27:34 AM »

Romney's lead from 97% of Clinton is 65 votes. If the remaining 3% is the same ratio of Romney:Santorum isn't that just +2 more votes for Romney?
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Torie
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« Reply #886 on: January 04, 2012, 01:27:45 AM »

Why did Perry do so well in southern Iowa? Do they speak with a twang and say ya'll in those parts?

A bit. And they are the poorest counties in Iowa, with the poorest soil. I would have to look at a map though.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #887 on: January 04, 2012, 01:29:07 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #888 on: January 04, 2012, 01:30:36 AM »

That Steve King endorsement would've had this wrapped up hours ago.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #889 on: January 04, 2012, 01:30:45 AM »

I calculated with the Google table and Excel gives me Santorum leading by 19 right now, not 18.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #890 on: January 04, 2012, 01:31:01 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Both counties have precincts that Romney or Santorum won.  And we don't know the precinct size, which varies, so....

Right, but this is the best we can do Tongue
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #891 on: January 04, 2012, 01:31:06 AM »

Yeah Inks, but Romney already has +46 of that +47. You're double-counting.
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Smash255
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« Reply #892 on: January 04, 2012, 01:31:18 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.


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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #893 on: January 04, 2012, 01:31:28 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.


According to the State Republican Party, the outstanding are in Clinton and Lee counties, not Keokuk as the politico map suggests.
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M
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« Reply #894 on: January 04, 2012, 01:31:43 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.


That math would be correct if all but one precinct were out in those counties.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #895 on: January 04, 2012, 01:32:03 AM »

Romney just took the lead on Google, apparently.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #896 on: January 04, 2012, 01:32:18 AM »

Yeah Inks, but Romney already has +46 of that +47. You're double-counting.

Hehe... I'm a math minor... fail.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #897 on: January 04, 2012, 01:32:23 AM »

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.


Oh, God.

There is a slight problem with those maths.
The reported precincts are already added to the current total!
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ag
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« Reply #898 on: January 04, 2012, 01:32:53 AM »

Check your math again Smiley))

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #899 on: January 04, 2012, 01:33:07 AM »

Is the entire CNN team drunk right now?
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