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| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread
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Author Topic: Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread  (Read 16643 times)
Lief
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« Reply #900 on: January 04, 2012, 01:33:26 am »
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Romney just took the lead on Google, apparently.

...but no change in precincts. Weird.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #901 on: January 04, 2012, 01:33:48 am »
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Keokuk - Sigourney Plank Van Buren had 38 Republican votes in 2008: 19 Huckabee, 7 Romney, 6 Paul, 3 McCain, 2 Thompson, 1 Giuliani.

Clinton - Clinton W2p2 had 122 Republican votes in 2008: 44 Romney, 31 McCain, 22 Huckabee, 13 Thompson, 8 Paul, 4 Giuliani.

Not looking great for Santorum.
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« Reply #902 on: January 04, 2012, 01:33:59 am »
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Is the entire CNN team drunk right now?
Was thinking the same thing. Guess they figured nobody would be watching at 1:30! Tongue
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #903 on: January 04, 2012, 01:34:25 am »
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Taylor County 2008
Huckabee 33.9%
Romney 27.7%
Thompson 20.0%

Union County 2008
Huckabee 38.2%
Romney 20.6%
McCain 13.6%
Thompson 12.3%

Taylor 2008
Clinton 35%
Edwards 35%
Obama 20%
Richardson 10%

Union 2008
Clinton 34%
Edwards 32%
Obama 25%
Biden 8%

I guess these are the weird maverick counties...
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #904 on: January 04, 2012, 01:34:28 am »
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Romney just took the lead on Google, apparently.

...but no change in precincts. Weird.
^^^What I was thinking.
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« Reply #905 on: January 04, 2012, 01:34:52 am »
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If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.


You start with Romney 386+73=459, Santorum 321+92=413. That's Romney +46.
After adding the two precincts those counties would be Romney +47.
That's a net gain of only 1 for Romney.
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« Reply #906 on: January 04, 2012, 01:35:09 am »
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"Sigourney Plank Van Buren" likely includes parts of the city of Sigourney and Plank and Van Buren townships.  I suspect it might be a slightly larger precinct for the county.

EDIT: Sigourney seems to be slightly more Romney-friendly, for the county.

The other missing precinct is a ward in the Mississippi river city of Clinton, Iowa.  Romney won 4, Santorum 2 and Paul 1 of Clinton's precincts.

By the way, the city of Keokuk isn't in Keokuk County just as Des Moines isn't in Des Moines County.  
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« Reply #907 on: January 04, 2012, 01:35:19 am »
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If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.


Oh, God.

There is a slight problem with those maths.
The reported precincts are already added to the current total!

Yeah, I screwed up...
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ag
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« Reply #908 on: January 04, 2012, 01:35:33 am »
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Romney up by 1. Tie, for god's sake!!!
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Lief
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« Reply #909 on: January 04, 2012, 01:35:47 am »
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Santorum better win, I want my two points in the prediction thing.
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J. J.
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« Reply #910 on: January 04, 2012, 01:36:05 am »
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Keokuk - Sigourney Plank Van Buren had 38 Republican votes in 2008: 19 Huckabee, 7 Romney, 6 Paul, 3 McCain, 2 Thompson, 1 Giuliani.

Clinton - Clinton W2p2 had 122 Republican votes in 2008: 44 Romney, 31 McCain, 22 Huckabee, 13 Thompson, 8 Paul, 4 Giuliani.

Not looking great for Santorum.

It could be a tie.  Smiley
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J. J.

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« Reply #911 on: January 04, 2012, 01:36:10 am »
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According to David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, the outstanding precinct in Clinton County, which has slightly favored Mitt Romney tonight, had 422 John McCain voters in the general election of 2008. Based on the ratio of caucus-goers tonight to the number of votes for Mr. McCain in 2008, that would imply it has about 75 caucus votes outstanding.
 
By the same method, the outstanding precinct in Keokuk County, which has the wonderfully Iowan name "Sigourney Plank Van Buren" and which might favor Mr. Santorum, should have about 30 caucus-goers.
 
- Nate Silver
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jfern
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« Reply #912 on: January 04, 2012, 01:36:14 am »
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Romney just took the lead on Google, apparently.

...but no change in precincts. Weird.

Romney up 1 on CNN!
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« Reply #913 on: January 04, 2012, 01:36:35 am »
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Romney leads by 1 vote on CNN.
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« Reply #914 on: January 04, 2012, 01:36:45 am »
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Santorum is ahead on the Google
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Scott
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« Reply #915 on: January 04, 2012, 01:37:33 am »
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One vote... one vote...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #916 on: January 04, 2012, 01:38:15 am »
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One vote. I've seen it all now.
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Lief
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« Reply #917 on: January 04, 2012, 01:40:14 am »
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Santorum is ahead again after Keokuk comes in. Now we just need Clinton's precinct.

And apparently there was a change in Storey county where Romney leads again.
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cinyc
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« Reply #918 on: January 04, 2012, 01:40:15 am »
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According to the State Republican Party, the outstanding are in Clinton and Lee counties, not Keokuk as the politico map suggests.

No, it's definitely Clinton and Keokuk Counties that are missing a precinct.  The confusion arises because the city of Keokuk is in Lee County.

Keokuk County's precinct just reported.  So it's just Clinton - Clinton W2p2 now.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #919 on: January 04, 2012, 01:40:14 am »
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According to the IA GOP precinct-by-precinct results, it was the Clinton county precinct that came in, with the Keokuk precinct still out.
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« Reply #920 on: January 04, 2012, 01:40:15 am »
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KeoKuk has reported, Santurum is up by 24 there.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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tmthforu94
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« Reply #921 on: January 04, 2012, 01:40:16 am »
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Good lord....
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« Reply #922 on: January 04, 2012, 01:43:13 am »
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Santorum up by 4!
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« Reply #923 on: January 04, 2012, 01:43:25 am »
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Santorum is ahead again after Keokuk comes in. Now we just need Clinton's precinct.

And apparently there was a change in Storey county where Romney leads again.

At the risk of sounding like a Paultard conspiracy theorist, what happened to the "no recount" rule?
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #924 on: January 04, 2012, 01:43:50 am »
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Google says Santorum gained 12 and Romney 7 in Keokuk, but CNN has Romney leading...
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