Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[J. J.]

24/24/23 S

[J. J.]

A lot of those counties where Santorum is running strong are mostly in and Romney is leading in Dubuque.  My guess is Romney does no worse than 2md.  He might win it.

[J. J.]

A lot of those counties where Santorum is running strong are mostly in and Romney is leading in Dubuque.  My guess is Romney does no worse than 2md.  He might win it.

As Dubuque goes so goes Iowa???

It is a heavily Catholic area (60%+).

[J. J.]

Santorum now leading, by less than 100 votes.  Paul is off by about 1,000.

[J. J.]

24-24-22

[J. J.]

Carl Rove just pointed out what may put Mitt in first, although I think it is an uphill battle. Des Moines is only 33% in, and the late precincts are probably big, and middle class, with a couple upper middle class. So if Mitt gets a big lead in a few big Des Moines precincts, that plus what is out in Dubuque, may be enough to offset whatever lead Rick gets in the 5 western counties that are still out, which Mitt carried last time, but he was positioned a bit differently last time. Mitt is trashing Rick in Johnson County (U of Iowa), with Paul coming in first of course, and a fair amount of it is out too I see.

Only 10 precincts out in Dubuque; Romney picked out 1% statewide.

R 25, S 24, P 22

[J. J.]

S 25, R 25, P 21

[J. J.]

S up by 45 votes.

[J. J.]

10 precincts out in Dubuque and 5 in Scott.

[J. J.]

S ahead again.

[J. J.]

Romney is down by 65 votes; there are about 60 precincts out from currently Romney counties.

[J. J.]

49 precincts out.

[J. J.]

They're holding the last 10 precincts in Dubuque to make sure Romney wins this.

I think you might be right.  

[J. J.]

Romney may come extremely first at the end, but it's hardly a success. After almost 4 years as frontrunner, he'd almost lose Iowa to someone, who was nobody just a few weeks ago.

Who thought he'd win?  I was looking at third place above 20% as a success.

[J. J.]

Romney ahead by 62 votes.

[J. J.]

7 out in Harrison; that is Santorum.  Dubuque and Polk are in.  Several of the eastern counties' precincts are out; they are Romney.  One Santorum precinct in Van Buren and one is Hardin are out.

[J. J.]

FOUR precincts out in Clayton and one in Jackson, both Paul counties.

Santorum ran ahead of Romney in Clayton.

[J. J.]

5 precincts out:

2 S

3 R

34 votes

[J. J.]

Two precincts out, Keokuk and Clinton.

[J. J.]

Where are you seeing what precincts are left?

I've just been keeping track on the Google map.

And you are right.

[J. J.]

Keokuk - Sigourney Plank Van Buren had 38 Republican votes in 2008: 19 Huckabee, 7 Romney, 6 Paul, 3 McCain, 2 Thompson, 1 Giuliani.

Clinton - Clinton W2p2 had 122 Republican votes in 2008: 44 Romney, 31 McCain, 22 Huckabee, 13 Thompson, 8 Paul, 4 Giuliani.

Not looking great for Santorum.

It could be a tie.  

[J. J.]

KeoKuk has reported, Santurum is up by 24 there.

[J. J.]

Santorum is ahead again after Keokuk comes in. Now we just need Clinton's precinct.

And apparently there was a change in Storey county where Romney leads again.

At the risk of sounding like a Paultard conspiracy theorist, what happened to the "no recount" rule?

In theory, a recount could be ordered by the caucus goers.

[J. J.]

Possible undercount in Story for Romney.

[J. J.]

It looks they corrected Story. it was off by ten, but that number might have been included.

Just announced.  Romney wins by 14 votes.