Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[Meeker]

If this entrance poll is to be believed I think Romney has it in the bag...

[Meeker]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/ia

[Meeker]

I wonder if this entrance poll may be missing the small towns that Santorum is probably going to do best in.

[Meeker]

Ah, interesting. Then yes, it would make sense that the most organized campaigns would lead in the early voters.

[Meeker]

Romney led this poll in the first wave in 2008.

[Meeker]

And past results have shown entrance/exit polls are better for showing demographics than actual results.  What's the MoE for the entrance poll?

Well considering it had Romney leading in 2008 and then he lost by 10, the MoE is pretty damn high.

[Meeker]

Fox is saying that Perry is directly appealing to voters at caucus sites. I'm not sure if this is a smart move or not. Perhaps we'll soon find out.

Every candidate is doing this.

[Meeker]

Does anyone see an overall % reporting on the Iowa GOP/Google map? They have for each county but not overall it seems.

[Meeker]

The Google map is nice but it doesn't tell you how many precincts have come in!

[Meeker]

CNN has Santorum back in the lead! Paul in 3rd

[Meeker]

... and now Romney in the lead

All within 100 votes of each other.

[Meeker]

Paul is leading by 6% in Polk County (Des Moines) with only 27% of the vote in.  

Based on that alone, I really have to think that Paul is going to win this.  Unreal.  

Sioux City's county, Woodbury, is completely missing and could easily offset any Polk County votes.  Sioux City is in the most conservative part of the state, which could help Santorum.

There's also no guarantee that Paul's Polk County lead will continue.  If the entrance polls are correct, there's an urban/suburban divide, with urbanites going more Paul and suburbanites more Romney.  Where the Polk County votes are in from may matter.

Romney actually beat Huckabee in Woodbury in 2008.

[Meeker]

I think Romeny is about to pick up a lot of votes in Polk as the suburbs come in.

[Meeker]

Dubuque still has a lot to report, and Woodbury isn't even reporting. Things certainly aren't even close to being over for Romney. Very happy with how tonight is going.

Woodbury County will go to Santorum

Romney won it in '08.

[Meeker]

Romney wins Polk County 29-22-22

[Meeker]

Santorum is winning Woodbury!

[Meeker]

Obviously Ron Paul had this election stolen from him by the Iowa Republican Party.

[Meeker]

The Google map says Woodbury has 95% reporting when a moment ago it said 59% and no new votes were reported.

[Meeker]

McCain to endorse Romney in NH tomorrow

[Meeker]

Santorum at 10% in NH according to CNN's "flash poll" tonight.

[Meeker]

SANTORUM BACK IN THE LEAD!!!!!

[Meeker]

Holy Crap...someone is about to win this caucus with less than 10 votes.

At that point, neither candidate can call it a definitive win, although a virtual tie helps Santorum much more, since Romney theoretically had a lead in the polls.

I disagree... a tie maintains the status quo which is bad news for Santorum.

Well not necessarily "bad" news but it's not "campaign winning good news".

[Meeker]

Holy Crap...someone is about to win this caucus with less than 10 votes.

At that point, neither candidate can call it a definitive win, although a virtual tie helps Santorum much more, since Romney theoretically had a lead in the polls.

I disagree... a tie maintains the status quo which is bad news for Santorum.

Well, I think Romney will win anyway, but in terms of who can call it a "win" tonight, I think that's Santorum.

I suppose... both can call it a win but I think the result will be more impactful on Romney than Santorum in the end.

[Meeker]

Romney campaign is telling reporters they won by 14 votes.

[Meeker]

The Iowa GOP Chair seems to be pushing back on the 14 votes thing. Could just be trying to build drama for his announcement though.