Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[muon2]

Is it just me, or is the Forum fu**ing slow again ?

And it's not even General Election Night ...

yes

[muon2]

Perry's tone mislead me. He's staying on.

Perry is dropping out

Agreed. Barring some incredible internal polling from the south he's out.

[muon2]

Frothy up BY 5 VOTES.

So what's left now?

[muon2]

Now Romney up by 41

CNN rolled back to the 98% in list from the 5 vote margin at 99%.

[muon2]

So essentially, it's within the margin of error of counting/voting errors.

100 votes out of 80K is within the margin of error given the type of counting used by caucuses.

[muon2]

Why is this taking so long!?!?!?!

Think of this as 0.1% of the precincts having problems. That's not very much. There can be a phone glitch, car breakdown carrying ballots, or some other problem with those precincts. I've seen dozens of perfectly valid events that hold up one precinct. You won't normally notice it unless the race come down to the last precinct in.

[muon2]

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Might want to check your math...

I rounded wrong... 29.  But what's wrong with that?

If they vote like the rest of their counties, Romney won't net more than a couple of votes.

Clinton: 29/30 reporting.

Romney has 386.  386/29*30 = 399
Santorum has 321.  321/29*30 = 332

Keokuk: 15/16 reporting.

Romney has 73.  73/15*16 = 78
Santorum has 92.  92/15*16 = 98

Romney 399+78 = 477
Santorum 332+98 = 430

Giving Romney a lead of 47.

Santorum leads by 18 now, so 47-18 = 29.

You start with Romney 386+73=459, Santorum 321+92=413. That's Romney +46.
After adding the two precincts those counties would be Romney +47.
That's a net gain of only 1 for Romney.

[muon2]

Santorum is ahead again after Keokuk comes in. Now we just need Clinton's precinct.

And apparently there was a change in Storey county where Romney leads again.

At the risk of sounding like a Paultard conspiracy theorist, what happened to the "no recount" rule?

The results the media reports are unofficial. As such the officials will update with any corrections that come in. I've found that name swaps on the totals are quite common at county tabulations. Until the county officials certify the result to the state it is subject to change.

[muon2]

Suddenly 7 counties aren't at 100% here.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/President/2012/Primary/IA

Sounds like the state party has let it be known that they are getting revisions from those counties.

[muon2]

CNN is interviewing party people from Clinton. The votes were phoned in at 7:48 pm, but it appears that the state didn't record it. Romney 51, Santorum 33 is what they are getting by phone.

[muon2]

The Clinton person's total indicates that the totals I mentioned are yet to be added.

[muon2]

I wonder if the state GOP is holding this precinct back to delay announcing it's complete so they can double-check numbers somewhere else?

That would be consistent with the counties backed off on the state map.