Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[cinyc]

Paul is leading by 6% in Polk County (Des Moines) with only 27% of the vote in.  

Based on that alone, I really have to think that Paul is going to win this.  Unreal.  

Sioux City's county, Woodbury, is completely missing and could easily offset any Polk County votes.  Sioux City is in the most conservative part of the state, which could help Santorum.

There's also no guarantee that Paul's Polk County lead will continue.  If the entrance polls are correct, there's an urban/suburban divide, with urbanites going more Paul and suburbanites more Romney.  Where the Polk County votes are in from may matter.

[cinyc]

FWIW, of the 49 Polk County precincts reporting, Ron Paul won 30, Santorum and Romney 8 each and Perry 3 very small ones.  But 6 of Romney's wins were in precincts with over 100 votes, compared to 2 each for Santorum and Paul.

[cinyc]

Who is "other" in Emmet County, Iowa, that is getting 37%? 15% is going to "No preference"

It's Vote Count-Other in the GOP spreadsheet.   That's other than Paul, Bachmann, Johnson, Gingrich, Santorum, Huntsman, Roemer, Romney, Perry or Cain, who are explicitly listed.  The Johnson column is completely blank instead of all zeros, like Cain and Huntsman.  Something might have gotten transposed (though it's the same way in the Polk results, so probably not).

[cinyc]

Paul's lead is down to 2% in Polk County; Santorum is in second there now.

Much of that was from the town of Ankeny, north of Des Moines in the I-35 corridor.  Santorum did well there.  It's home to a John Deere plant and bible college.

[cinyc]

I can't believe what we're seeing out of Marion and Jasper. Can somebody more familiar with Iowa than I am explain what it is about those counties relative to the rest of the south-and-east-of-Des Moines part of the state?

Jasper County's largest city is Newton, which used to have a big Maytag plant that employed a good percentage of its residents.  That plant closed fairly recently, devastating the city.  That probably doesn't explain the huge Santorum vote, though.

[cinyc]

Although Ron Paul has fallen slightly behind Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney in the vote-counting, he still has a chance of winning - in part because some of his strongest areas, college towns, have been slow to report results.

Story County, where Iowa State University is located, has had none of its 43 precincts report. And only 22 of 57 precincts have reported in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. (Mr. Paul has 36 percent of the votes there so far.)

- Nate Silver

Johnson County's now 91% in.  Romney is winning it by about 5 points.  Unless one or more of the Johnson County precincts is on the Iowa campus, Paul's hopes hinge on Story and the city of Des Moines.

We really need to see some of Woodbury before projecting anything.   If it goes Romney like in 2008, he could win.  If it goes Santorum, Romney probably ends up in second.

[cinyc]

Google Romney-25% Santorum-24% Paul-22%

What!

Almost all of Polk County (Des Moines) came in - and Romney ended up winning it.

[cinyc]

Romney wins Polk County 29-22-22

Yup, Rove was sort of right. Paul was ahead in Polk earlier. I guess the Drake U area came in first.

As you'd expect, smaller precincts came in first.  The more populous ones reported in the last batch.  Romney is winning suburban areas that have the most voters.

Woodbury's largely missing Sioux City precincts.  So far, Santorum won 7 Sioux City precincts to Romney's 3 and Paul's 1.  But Romney won 3 of the 4 with over 100 votes.

[cinyc]

FWIW, Paul won 85 of Polk County's 181 reporting precincts.  Romney was next with 50.  But among precincts with more than 100 votes, Romney won 41 to Paul's 20.  As I pointed out to Torie before, Romney won where the votes were.

[cinyc]

It would seem to me with only 7% reporting in Story and 74% in Dubuque that Romney has this in the bag.

What am I missing that y'all are seeing?

Some rural counties are part out, which tilt Santorum.  Other than that, we'll have to wait and see what Story truly holds.  7% is not necessarily representative.

[cinyc]

Precincts remaining (county name first):

Clayton - Buena Vista
Clayton - Read
Clinton - Clinton W2p2
Hardin - Hardin/Ellis/Jackson Pct
Johnson - Iowa City 22/East Lucas North
Keokuk - Sigourney Plank Van Buren
Story - Story City 1

[cinyc]

Just reported:
Johnson - Iowa City 22/East Lucas North
Story - Story City 1

Remaining:

Clayton - Buena Vista
Clayton - Read
Clinton - Clinton W2p2
Hardin - Hardin/Ellis/Jackson Pct
Keokuk - Sigourney Plank Van Buren

[cinyc]

Where are you seeing what precincts are left?

https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?dsrcid=2475248

Then export the data into Excel and/or click options and use a filter to figure out what is out (NumberCountedBallotBoxes=0).

Out:
Clinton - Clinton W2p2
Keokuk - Sigourney Plank Van Buren

[cinyc]

If the 2 precincts that remain vote in the same proportion as the rest of their respective counties, Romney will win by 30 votes.

Both counties have precincts that Romney or Santorum won.  And we don't know the precinct size, which varies, so....

[cinyc]

"Sigourney Plank Van Buren" likely includes parts of the city of Sigourney and Plank and Van Buren townships.  I suspect it might be a slightly larger precinct for the county.

EDIT: Sigourney seems to be slightly more Romney-friendly, for the county.

The other missing precinct is a ward in the Mississippi river city of Clinton, Iowa.  Romney won 4, Santorum 2 and Paul 1 of Clinton's precincts.

By the way, the city of Keokuk isn't in Keokuk County just as Des Moines isn't in Des Moines County.  

[cinyc]

According to the State Republican Party, the outstanding are in Clinton and Lee counties, not Keokuk as the politico map suggests.

No, it's definitely Clinton and Keokuk Counties that are missing a precinct.  The confusion arises because the city of Keokuk is in Lee County.

Keokuk County's precinct just reported.  So it's just Clinton - Clinton W2p2 now.