Official Iowa Caucus Results Thread

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

You guys want to get on the Atlas IRC channel?  It was pretty fun last time we had an election night chat.

Let's do it.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Is the IA GOP site down?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I don't see how Romney can win at this point.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I've got another $300 I can put in to the IEM for a candidate (good if they win first OR second). What's my best bet based on the county results so far?

Santorum

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The strangest part of these results so far has been Santorum's weakness in the southern, rural counties that loved Edwards and Huckabee in 2008. It's a mystery as to how Gingrich and Paul are doing so well there.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Oh, Mitt got 33% in Catholic Dubuque. Rick got 26%. So Mitt is running strong in Catholic areas too.

Mitt is actually severely underperforming in Catholic areas compared to 2008.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Romney's base areas are played out for the most part, outside of Sioux City.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Ron Paul is a terrible speaker.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It sounds like Newt will be endorsing Santorum if he continues to do poorly (which he will).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Madison will probably deliver for Santorum, which could help give him the edge.

Nah, Madison (Winterset) is fairly upscale, sort of an exurb of Des Moines, with a most impressive housing stock really (the family farm is a mile to the south, which is my responsibility now, so I know the place well now). Romney should carry it.  

Romney got 16% there last time...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Santorum up by 72 now, 93% in

But Woodbury has shot it's wad now, and what was left came in as those precincts before, with about a 7 point Santorum lead. So that Rick node is out of play now. Maybe it will come down to "my" county, Madison County.  

Madison just gave Romney 17% of the vote, congrats.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

YAY PERRY IS REASSESSING!!!! HE'S OUT!

ON TO SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THE ANTI-ROMNEY FORCES MAKE THEIR FINAL, UNITED STAND.

And Gingrich looks like he's staying in the race specifically to throw all of his money into running attack ads against Romney. This is going to be fun.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

And Gingrich looks like he's staying in the race specifically to throw all of his money into running attack ads against Romney. This is going to be fun.

Wait, Gingrich is the guy who's running a positive campaign and is urging others to make this a positive race. Surely HE wouldn't be running anything negative?

He's bitter because over 50% of the ads aired in Iowa were attack ads against him, I can't say that I blame him. He could have won if he had even half the funds Romney had.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Santorum has a great narrative to use against Romney: he's the working class, cultural warrior running against the elitist, convictionless at best and liberal at worst, Mormon Romney. Santorum's skeletons could easily be spun into strengths.

I think he has a chance.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why did Perry do so well in southern Iowa? Do they speak with a twang and say ya'll in those parts?

After seeing those results, I think that's the case: both Edwards and Huckabee won in a landslide there.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Taylor County 2008
Huckabee 33.9%
Romney 27.7%
Thompson 20.0%

Union County 2008
Huckabee 38.2%
Romney 20.6%
McCain 13.6%
Thompson 12.3%

Taylor 2008
Clinton 35%
Edwards 35%
Obama 20%
Richardson 10%

Union 2008
Clinton 34%
Edwards 32%
Obama 25%
Biden 8%

I guess these are the weird maverick counties...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Random Interesting Results:
Urbandale Precinct 9 (affluent suburban precinct of Des Moines, 75,000 household income)
Romney 49%
Gingrich 19%
Santorum 16%
Paul 12%
Perry 5%

Des Moines Precinct 2 (downscale working class precinct of Des Moines, 38,000 household income)
Paul 26%
Santorum 23%
Gingrich 16%
Romney 14%
Perry 12%
Bachmann 9%

Romney has a working class problem...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Slapped together a quick map with Atlas colors and scale:

Social conservatives need to be brown: