A miracle in Iowa
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  A miracle in Iowa
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Poll
Question: Should this go on?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
#3
Hell no!
 
#4
It's awesome!
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 28

Author Topic: A miracle in Iowa  (Read 22646 times)
Jerseyrules
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« on: January 03, 2012, 10:10:03 PM »
« edited: January 03, 2012, 10:12:41 PM by Jerseyrules »

"And yes, we can project a victory for Senator Edwards has won in Iowa tonight, narrowly beating out Barrack Obama, and putting Hillary in a very sad third place..."

John Edwards: 34%
Barrack Obama: 32%
Hillary Clinton: 30%

"No, we aren't gonna quit fighting for change, change we can believe in!"
- Senator Obama on the night of the Iowa caucus
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2012, 10:53:25 PM »
« Edited: January 03, 2012, 11:43:05 PM by Jerseyrules »

Blue = Edwards
Red = Clinton
Green = Obama

Clinton wins New Hampshire; Senator Edwards comes in a tight second, while Obama trails in a distant third.

NH:

Clinton: 39%
Edwards: 34%
Obama: 18%

Obama drops out of race; endorses Edwards!

MI:

Clinton: 45%
Edwards: 40%

Edwards wins Nevada!

Edwards: 50%
Clinton: 44%

The primary map as it stands now:

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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2012, 08:42:54 PM »

Are people still interested in this?
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retromike22
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« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2012, 11:31:55 PM »

I really don't think Obama would have quit so soon. I think he would have gone to at least South Carolina. I think what would have happened was:

New Hampshire:
Clinton 39
Obama 32
Edwards 28

Michigan: (which remember Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot)
Clinton 52
Uncommitted: 45

Nevada:
Clinton 40
Edwards 36
Obama 24

South Carolina
Obama 40
Edwards 32
Clinton 28
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2012, 04:16:04 PM »

I really don't think Obama would have quit so soon. I think he would have gone to at least South Carolina. I think what would have happened was:

New Hampshire:
Clinton 39
Obama 32
Edwards 28

Michigan: (which remember Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot)
Clinton 52
Uncommitted: 45

Nevada:
Clinton 40
Edwards 36
Obama 24

South Carolina
Obama 40
Edwards 32
Clinton 28

Obama dropped out because he faded really quickly after NH and in MI; ITTL I had all candidates keep their names on the ballot.  He saw he wasn't getting anywhere, and was hoping for a VP pick (unlikely if he stayed in for a long time.)
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2012, 04:57:25 PM »

Hannity: "Senator Edwards has clearly bounced back, after being the underdog since day one.  What do you think, Alan?"
Colmes: "Well he's on his way to the nomination.  He's recruited Obama as a crusader, and the African American vote is turning out for him almost as much as it did for Obama early on.  I really think this guy could be our next president."
Hannity: "Well, I just hope he keeps the nomination in deadlock long enough to damage the eventual nominee.  Monica, what's your opinion of...."

Florida:

Edwards: 49.2%
Clinton: 48.7%

"Yes, we can now project that Senator Edwards has narrowly won the Florida primary, thanks to excessive campaigning and Senator Obama's barnstorming over the past several weeks.  The popular vote total is so close, however, that Senator Clinton will receive the same number of delegates as the North Carolina populist..."
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2012, 05:04:05 PM »

One tidbit - at this point in 2008, Florida was not giving any delegates. Smiley
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2012, 05:16:29 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2012, 05:19:11 PM by Jerseyrules »

“Going into Super Tuesday, the primary map thus far looks like this, where a blue state denotes a victory for Senator Edwards and a red state shows a win for Senator Clinton:”




Super Tuesday:

“Good evening, I’m Bret Bair.  Today is the all-important Super Tuesday primaries, which will truly test both candidates and their endurance in this race…”



Bill O’Reilly: “Thanks to Senator Obama’s tireless campaigning for Edwards, the African-American vote, coupled with Edwards’ southern roots, helps him to carry many southern contests; what do you make of Obama’s devotion to the campaign?”

Dick Morris: “Well, I think that he’s clearly looking for the VP spot.  Otherwise there’s no reason why he would’ve dropped out so soon-”

Bill: “Well, yeah, but come on, I don’t think he’s in it for that reason only.  Clinton represents the establishment, which Obama opposes so vehemently, does she not?”

Dick: “No, Edwards is pretty establishment himself.  We’ve seen the same thing with Mitt Romney for Republicans this year, Bush the Elder and Reagan a while back, Bob Dole in the thousand times he ran for president; he wants the VP slot.  Now whether Edwards is going to give it to him, provided he wins the nomination, is anyone’s guess.”
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2012, 05:17:56 PM »

One tidbit - at this point in 2008, Florida was not giving any delegates. Smiley

I know, but they're still competing, because both campaigns want to seat the delegates from MI and FL (which, if I'm not mistaken, is decided at the convention by pledged delegates.)  Correct me if I'm wrong though.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2012, 05:29:10 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2012, 05:35:26 PM by Jerseyrules »

Hannity: “With the Democratic nomination still up in the air, the next president is anyone’s guess.  However, there’s no way that Senator Clinton is doing as well as she should.  So the question is this: will Clinton be able to make a comeback and cement herself as the presumptive nominee once again?”

Colmes: “There’s no way she’s doing as well as she had hoped.  She wanted this to be done by Super Tuesday.  Now the clock is ticking, with McCain the presumptive nominee, on whether the Democrats are going to be able to pull it together in time to win in November.”

Hannity: “Hopefully not [smiles].  Now Senator D’Amato, what’s your opinion of the Republican field?”

D’Amato: “Well I was really hoping for a better nominee.  But I’ll tell you something, he better pick a VP who’ll look good to the rest of the country, or else he’ll be in real trouble come November, and so will congressional Republicans…”


O’Reilly: “Welcome back, Dick.  So what do you make of the sweep through ‘mini-Tuesday’ Edwards made today?”

Morris: “Well, it means a lot.  It shows he’s picking up steam, and that he’s not just a southern candidate or a progressive candidate.  Of course, the nomination is still up in the air with neither Clinton nor Edwards having a majority of delegates, although Edwards pulled ahead for the first time in a while with his wins today…”

The primary map thus far:
 
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2012, 05:39:05 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2012, 05:42:48 PM by Jerseyrules »

The primary season ends, and still, neither candidate has a majority of delegates.  The unpledged delegates will determine the nominee this year.



Senator Edwards wins nomination on third ballot; Democratic Nominee!  Chooses Obama as running mate![/size]

Senator McCain Chooses Mitt Romney as running mate; both campaign in Florida[/size]
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2012, 05:51:59 PM »

The Major Party Tickets in 2008:

John Edwards (D-NC) / Barrack Obama (D-IL)



John McCain (R-AZ) / Mitt Romney (R-MA)



Electoral map according to polling:



Red = Safe Democrat
Blue = Safe Republican
Gray = Tossup

“Jesse Ventura announces third-party bid for MN Senate seat!”
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2012, 11:14:59 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2012, 07:50:46 PM by Jerseyrules »

10-09-2008:
A woman claming to be Senator Edwards’ mistress speaks out on Good Morning America, stirring up great controversy.  She will also be interviewed on Hannity and Colmes and The O’Reilly Factor among other prominent news shows; this causes Edwards’ poll numbers to plummet, and DNC funding shifts from congressional races to damage control, causing the GOP to gain momentum in many races otherwise sure-fire Democratic pickups.

Polling / Summary of Senate Races, 2008:

Alabama:

Safe R

Jeff Simons vs. Vivian Davis Figures (D)

Alaska:

Lean R

Sen. Ted Stevens vs. Tony Knowles (D)

52% vs. 47%.  Although Governor Knowles is the most high-profile Democrat in Alaska, incumbent Senator Ted Steves remains popular with Alaskans.  This will be a closely watched race, however.

  

Arkansas:

Lean D

Fmr. Governor Mike Huckabee vs. Sen. Mark Pryor

  

47% vs. 52%.  Governor Huckabee made a last-minute entry after failing to win the South Carolina primary, and was widely seen as the only Republican who could beat the popular Democratic incumbent.  Although he still trails in the polls, he has gained ground significantly in recent weeks, and pundits agree he could beat Sen. Pryor narrowly come election day.  This will be a narrow and closely-watched race.

Colorado:

Lean R

John Elway vs. Mark Udall

51% vs. 46%.  Former Broncos quarterback John Elway jumped into the race at the last moment, (citing few high-profile Republicans joining the race and “they’re all neoconservative bastards”), and easily won the GOP nomination.  He will face off against Congressman Mark Udall, and is heavily favored to win.  Many older Republicans remember with nostalgia Congressman Jack Kemp, another famous football-loving Republican.

Delaware:

Safe D

Activist Christine O’Donnell vs. Sen. Joe Biden



Georgia:

Safe R

Sen. Saxby Chambliss vs. Jim Martin.

Idaho:

Safe R

Jim Risch vs. Larry LaRocco

Illinois:

Strong D

Mark Kirk vs. Dick Durbin.

44% vs. 55%.  Although Rep. Mark Kirk has made up significant ground in polling throughout these past two months, he is still far behind incumbent Sen. Dick Durbin.  He will need to gain significant traction with Illinois voters if he has any hope of victory in November.

  
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2012, 11:16:05 PM »

Iowa:

Safe D

Businessman Christopher Reed vs. Sen. Tom Harkin.

Kansas:

Safe R

Sen. Pat Roberts vs. Jim Slattery.

Kentucky:

Lean R

Rand Paul vs. Bruce Lunsford

 

52% vs. 47%.  After defeating Senator Mitch McConnell in the GOP primary, Rand Paul (son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul) is locked in a tight race with Democrat Bruce Lunsford.  He is favored to win, however, due to youth turnout, as well as the increasingly slim number of undecided voters, however it remains a competitive race, and will be closely observed by political junkies.

Maine:

Strong Republican

Susan Collins vs. Tom Allen

 

57% vs. 41%.  Senator Collins’ Democratic opponent has attempted to tie her to President George Bush, however this tactic has largely failed.  Her image as a moderate independent of party ties has held up well in Maine, and she remains very popular in her very anti-Bush state.

Minnesota:

Tossup

Fmr. Gov. Jesse Ventura (Independence Party MN) vs. Sen. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken

   

37% vs. 34% vs. 27%.  This will be one of the closest-watched races in the nation; with Former Governor Jesse Ventura coming out of retirement, citing his discontent with both candidates; “It’s a match between a carpetbagger and a chicken hawk.  God has spoken to me, and I’m in it to win it!”  This will be a rematch between Coleman and “the Body,” who ran against each other in the 1998 gubernatorial election; although the polls favor the former governor, the race could change at any time due to the unpredictable nature of this three-man race.

Michigan:

Lean R

Fmr. Gov. John Engler vs. Carl Levin

 

52% vs. 43%.  Popular former three-term governor John Engler announced his candidacy for the Michigan senate seat, easily winning the Republican primary.  He is heavily favored to win against lackluster incumbent Carl Levin.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2012, 11:17:06 PM »

Mississippi:

Safe R

Thad Cochran vs. Erik Fleming

Mississippi Special (Class I):

Safe R

Roger Wicker vs. Ronnie Musgrove

Montana:

Safe D

Bob Kelleher vs. Max Baucus

Nebraska:

Strong R

Chuck Hagel vs. Scott Kleeb.  Hagel will be re-elected; his position as an anti-Bush Republican and his populist image make him very popular in his state.

New Hampshire:

Tossup

John Sununu vs. Jeanne Shaheen

  

This race will be closely watched; candidates are virtually tied in the polls, and it will be interesting to see who comes out on top.  Shaheen and Sununu are both former governors, and Sununu may run into the same problem that fellow northeastern GOPer Al D’Amato did in 1998: he is very conservative despite the moderate-to-liberal tilt of his state.

New Jersey:

Lean R

Fmr. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman vs. Frank Lautenberg.  Lautenberg will be fighting an uphill battle for re-election against popular two-term governor Christine Todd Whitman, who filed just before the deadline; privately, her original goal was “to save the NJ GOP from the brink of destruction,” however polling shows her with a tight but consistent lead over unpopular incumbent Sen. Lautenberg.

 
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #15 on: January 15, 2012, 11:19:00 PM »

New Mexico:

Lean R

Gary Johnson vs. Tom Udall

Despite registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans 2-to-1 in New Mexico, the former two-term governor remains very popular in his state, and his libertarian, pro-decriminalization leanings make him a strong opponent.

 

North Carolina:

Lean R

Elizabeth Dole vs. Kay Hagan

51% vs. 46%.  Another race to keep your eye on; Hagan has gained momentum in recent weeks but Dole remains above the 50% threshold.  Her husband and Mitt Romney campaign for her, and she appears to be ready for an albeit narrow re-election.

 

Oklahoma:

Jim Inhofe (R) will be re-elected.

Oregon:

Lean R

Gordon Smith vs. Jeff Merkley

Smith leads consistently in polling, and is very popular among moderates and independents in Oregon.  He will likely be re-elected.

 

Rhode Island:

Jack Reed (D) will be re-elected.

South Carolina:

Strong R

Nikki Haley vs. Bob Conley.  Conley is consistently behind in polling, though has been far outspent by his opponent.  He is considered by many to be a libertarian/conservative Democrat, and even voted for Ron Paul in the GOP primaries.  Paul has made several trips up to campaign for him, and has held several highly-publicized events for him.  He has stated that if he loses, he will run for a house seat in 2010.

 

South Dakota:

Tim Johnson (D) will be re-elected.

Tennessee:

Lamar Alexander (R) will be re-elected.

Texas:

John Cornyn will be re-elected

Virginia:

Governor Mark Warner will defeat Jim Gilmore.

West Virginia:

Jay Rockefeller will win re-election.

Wyoming (special and regular):

Safe R’s.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #16 on: January 15, 2012, 11:30:38 PM »



Fmr. Senator John Edwards (NC) / Sen. Barrack Obama (IL): 49.7% PV; 277 EV
Sen. John McCain (AZ) / Gov. Mitt Romney (MA): 48.9% PV; 261 EV

Towards the end of the campaign, Senator McCain realised he didn't really want to be president anyway; he was getting too old, and thought he would be a liability.  He had VP nominee Mitt Romney focus most of his efforts on congressional races; the election was very close, and the deciding states were Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #17 on: January 15, 2012, 11:42:11 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2012, 11:52:32 PM by Jerseyrules »

2008 Senate elections:



Republican: 53 (+4)
Democratic: 46 (-5)
Independence MN: 1 (+1)

Incumbent Majority Leader: Harry Reid
Majority Leader-elect: John Kyl

United States House of Representatives elections, 2008:

Republican: 217 (+15)
Democratic: 218 (-15)
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #18 on: January 15, 2012, 11:50:36 PM »

Good! Did nohing more surface about the affair?
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2012, 11:53:10 PM »

Good! Did nohing more surface about the affair?

No sir.  More to come though... (mischeivous face)
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2012, 12:04:13 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2012, 12:16:58 AM by Jerseyrules »

The Presidency of John Edwards, Part I:



[tips chair over]  "GOD DAMMIT BARRY!  THESE GODDAMN REPUBLICANS ARE USING THEIR 3-SEAT MAJORITY LIKE ITS A SUPERMAJORITY!  I'M A LAME DUCK IN MY FIRST TERM!  ALL 'CUZ THAT BITCH HAD TO GO ON TV AND RUN HER F****ING MOUTH!  GOD F****KING DAMMIT!"
"That's a dollar in the swear jar daddy."
"Go to bed pumpkin, daddy's yelling at Uncle Barry...."

02-11-2009:
John Stossel: "President Edwards is alleged to have fathered an illegitemit child with his mistress, all while his wife was on her deathbed..."
Bill O'Reilly: "This guy's a scumbag, and he doesn't deserve to be in that chair..."
John Stewart: "Vice President Obama was supposedly involved in coverups for Illinois Gov. Rod Blagoyjevich..."

03-09-2009:
"I vehemently deny any form of extramarital affair with that woman.  Can we get back to the real issues now?"

03-17-2009:
President Edwards removes 10,000 troops from Iraq and Afghanistan by executive order.  Despite Republican protests, violence in Iraq does not increase.

03-21-2009:
President Edwards removes an additional 20,000 troops from both nations, and will reduce troops in Iraq to 0 by January 2010 and to 0 in Afghanistan by June 2010.  Though popular, a set of special elections to the House of Representatives to the GOP, with John Boehner becoming Speaker.

04-7-2009:
Vice President Obama is impeached by the House of Representatives by a vote of 241-196 on corruption charges due to pay-for-play in filling his senate seat.  He is expected to be impeached by the Senate as well.

04-08-2009:
President Obama is impeached by the Senate by a vote of 59-41, found guilty on all charges.  He is the first vice president ever to be impeached by the Congress.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2012, 01:07:53 AM »
« Edited: January 16, 2012, 02:54:39 PM by Jerseyrules »

04-29-2009:
President Edwards appoints Secretary of Health and Human Services Howard Dean to replace Obama as Vice President.  He will be confirmed by a vote of 54-46, mainly because of his controversial political positions.

05-14-2009:
President Edwards removes another group of soldiers from Iraq.  60% of American boys are out of Iraq, and 40% are out of Afghanistan.

06-11-2009:
Edwards meets with Congress to discuss a bipartisan health care reform bill.  He refuses to reduce taxes, but considers Senator Paul’s proposal to allow interstate purchase of health insurance as a method to reduce cost.

07-21-2009:
The President sings the Bipartisan Health Care Reform Act of 2009, which passed Congress easily.  This results in a significant, albeit temporary, drop in medical expenses.

08-25-2009:
Progressive icon Senator Ted Kennedy dies peacefully in his sleep at the age of 77.  His senate seat will be filled by a special election to occur in February.

09-17-2009:
Under fire for his sexual antics, President Edwards once again issues a statement that “Under no circumstances will I resign from the presidency.”  His approval rating has hit an all-time low of 37%.

10-30-2009:
The GOP picks two new House seats in off-year elections.  The balance of power now stands at 221-214; many expect a Republican landslide in 2010.

11-09-2009:
In tonight’s gubernatorial elections, New Jersey Attorney Chris Christie defeats Governor Jon Corzine for re-election, and former Virginia Governor and Senator George Allen defeats Creigh Deeds in Virginia.  Interestingly, Republicans will take over both state legislatures as well, something not accomplished in years.  This appears to be a foreshadowing of the 2010 elections.

Tonight’s victors:

Governor-elect Allen



Governor-elect Christie



01-14-2010:
Former gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell announces his candidacy for the open U.S. Senate seat in Virginia in 2012.  He is widely considered to be the GOP frontrunner.

02-08-2010:
Former Governor Mitt Romney wins the senate election (with 54%) to fill Ted Kennedy’s senate seat.  His victory is credited with his grassroots campaign strategy, and State Senator Scott Brown’s relentless campaigning (Brown is running for Governor of Massachusetts this year.)

04-26-2010:
Governor Sarah Palin announces her intention to run against incumbent Lisa Murkowski in the GOP primary for her senate seat up this year.  She is widely expected to win.

05-13-2010:
All U.S. troops are out of Iraq.  President Edwards celebrates this victory, savoring it as he fears it may be his administration’s last hurrah.  80% of U.S. troops are out of Afghanistan.

07-24-2010:
All United States military personnel has been removed from Afghanistan, a major triumph for the Edwards administration.  However, the black storm cloud of the midterms is still lurking ominously….

10-22-2010:
President Edwards is brought up on charges of campaign funds misusage, and will face impeachment by the United States Congress.



President Edwards after his testimony.

11-09-2010:
The Republicans gain a massive victory today; 700 seats in state legislatures, 13 senate seats, and 73 house seats, including that of senator Charles Schumer (D-NY), which has not gone GOP since Warren G. Harding’s GOP landslide of 1920.  Even Secretary of Commerce Joe Biden’s senate seat falls to Mike Castle and the GOP (BY 20%!), as does that of Sec. State Hillary Clinton’s to Fmr. Governor George Pataki.  In California, Fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell defeats Senator Barbara Boxer, and Tea Party activist Sarah Palin wins Lisa Murkowski’s senate seat.  The massive gains by Republicans are widely thought to be a result of public anxiety over President Edwards’ corruption and infidelity charges.

House Elections, 2010:

Republicans: 294 (+73)
Democrats: 140 (-74)
Conservative NY: 1 (+1)

Senate Elections, 2010:

Republicans: 67 (+13)
Democrats: 32 (-13)
Independence MN: 1

These results will culminate in the largest number of overridden vetoes since Andrew Johnson and Gerald Ford…more to come
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Pingvin
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« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2012, 07:03:47 AM »

Jesse Ventura in Senate?
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2012, 02:50:02 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2012, 02:53:15 PM by Jerseyrules »


Haha I'd hoped for that kind of response Wink.  Next update this afternoon.
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Jerseyrules
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« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2012, 03:06:08 PM »

Did I mention that Joe Lieberman is now caucusing with the GOP?
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