Will Michele Bachmann win reelection to the House?

[Governor Scott]

I don't know the demographics of her new district, but I think this campaign probably hurt her more than helped her politically.

[OC]

won't try to run.

[Vasall des Midas]

Nobody knows because the court won't complete mapdrawing til some time in february.

[krazen1211]

That district can really only get more Republican as it is overpopulated and the Democratic areas are on its corners.

[Vasall des Midas]

It won't be redrawn to be a Democratic district, no. (Although it would actually be very easy to do so if anyone wanted to, just split Saint Paul.) Bachmann's home may very easily be drawn into the Saint Paul based district, and if Dems get their way it's drawn so far out of it that she may have trouble holding it in a primary. (The real target of such a map is Paulson.)

[So the Heroes Fall]

That district can really only get more Republican as it is overpopulated and the Democratic areas are on its corners.

Erm, no. MN-03 will need to expand, and that could easily take it into Wright County, that's the closest place. Also the parts of Stearns likely to be removed are not Democratic, St. Cloud will likely remain intact barring something crazy. The parts that border MN-04 aren't likely to be removed, rather MN-04 will probably expand into MN-02 just because that's the cleanest way.

It won't be redrawn to be a Democratic district, no. (Although it would actually be very easy to do so if anyone wanted to, just split Saint Paul.) Bachmann's home may very easily be drawn into the Saint Paul based district, and if Dems get their way it's drawn so far out of it that she may have trouble holding it in a primary. (The real target of such a map is Paulson.)

That was quite likely if Minnesota lost a district, but I don't see that happening now. MN-02's population excess is actually almost equal to the deficit of MN-01 and MN-04, so there's an easy drawing. So MN-06 probably ends up losing areas to MN-03 (which will need even more population due to losing some inner areas to MN-05) and MN-07.

[nkpatel1279]

What about running for the US Senate in 2014 against Stuart Smalley(D-MN)?
Other potential Republican challengers against Franken ie Pawlenty,Coleman,and Paulsen represent the Romney wing of the Republican party-The Arne Carlson wing. Bachmann represents the Santorum wing of the Republican Party-Rod Grams wing.
Bachmann,Pawlenty,and Paulsen seek the Republican nomination for the US Senate in 2014 against Franken(running against Franken in 2014 is much easier than running against Klobuchar in 2012). Bachmann wins the Republican nomination due to strong backing of the tea party, Pawlenty and Paulsen split the Carlson wing of the Republican party. A Bachmann-R vs Franken-D race will be worth watching.

[© Tweed the Younger]

What about running for the US Senate in 2014 against Stuart Smalley(D-MN)?

nkpatel displays some rudimentary understanding of the concept of humor, casting some doubt on the Forum consensus' diagnosis of Asperger's.

[RogueBeaver]

If she wants to run, yes. There's already a small cluster of candidates waiting to hear a yes or no, foremost among them Tom Emmer.

[BushKenya]

I think she will win by a little.  She bowed out of the presidential race early enough to (a) have enough time to wage a credible primary and general campaign and (b) count on the forgetfulness of the electorate.  The public likely won't remember her largely 2011 presidential campaign on November 6, 2012 a full 10 months after she dropped out of the White House race.  Plus, it is possible that the Republican nominee (likely Mitt Romney) could allow her to latch on to his coattail.

[nclib]

It surprises me that she easily get re-elected to this CD. It's conservative for Minnesota, but not much more than the nation. Perhaps she gets through the primary and enough straight-ticket Repubs vote for her in the general, but may prefer someone more moderate. It would be interesting to see her popularity in MN-6.

[Seattle]

It surprises me that she easily get re-elected to this CD. It's conservative for Minnesota, but not much more than the nation. Perhaps she gets through the primary and enough straight-ticket Repubs vote for her in the general, but may prefer someone more moderate. It would be interesting to see her popularity in MN-6.

THat's the thing, she isn't extremely popular. She was 'only' re-elected with 52.5% of the vote in 2010.

[nclib]

It surprises me that she easily get re-elected to this CD. It's conservative for Minnesota, but not much more than the nation. Perhaps she gets through the primary and enough straight-ticket Repubs vote for her in the general, but may prefer someone more moderate. It would be interesting to see her popularity in MN-6.

THat's the thing, she isn't extremely popular. She was 'only' re-elected with 52.5% of the vote in 2010.

Yeah, I expected her to run less far ahead of the party ticket, compared to most incumbents. My point was that she is far to the right of the median voter in MN-6.

[So the Heroes Fall]

MN-6 was strong for both Ventura and Perot and IP candidates usually do well there, it's a strong district for the type of populist hatred of both parties type mentality. A generic Republican usually polls about 53-54% there without a strong third party, Bachmann always runs below that.

[Vasall des Midas]

Minnesotans are a pretty partisan bunch. Yes, third party candidates can do quite well there, but there's an above-national-average percentage of people who'll never vote Dem or never vote Rep. And there's a lot of the former in this district.