At what point will holding anti-gay positions start becoming a liability?

[afleitch]

Given the gradual trend towards Americans supporting gay marriage/civil unions with older voters being replaced by younger voters who tend to be more increasingly supportive at what point will publically opposing gay marriage/civil unions and LGBT rights in general start to become an electorable liability? Has this in fact happened in any state so far?

Thoughts.

[greenforest32]

Not a liability: National Republican primary, very conservative states
A liability: National general election, very liberal states (VT, MA, etc)

We are really nearing the end of opposition to LGBT rights in the US. The public already supports ENDA (I think even Romney supports this?) and the repeal of DADT by huge margins and we're seeing the shift towards supporting gay marriage which will lead to the end of the Defense of Marriage Act (and civil unions).

The speed on which things happen will vary. The fastest I think is if Obama moves on from supporting civil unions to supporting gay marriage (again), wins reelection, and Democrats hold the Senate allowing him to appoint more Supreme Court justices and California holds off on legalizing gay marriage at the ballot in favor of letting Perry v. Schwarzenegger reach the Supreme Court who would hopefully give us a Loving v. Virginia-like ruling legalizing gay marriage nationwide. It could be over this decade.

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

[Communists For McCain]

I would argue that in more than a few places it's already happening.

Hell, Santorum's Senate career was cut short in Pennsylvania of all places because he was too "anti-gay".

[Senator Snowstalker]

In much of the country already, and nationwide by the 2020's. By 2016 or 2020 we'll see Republican nominees who at least support civil unions.

[Nagas]

2020s most likely, 2030s if the religious right really digs its heels and shoves money into the  GOP. Hopefully Perry v Schwarzenegger results in a Brown v Board type ruling, but I'd expect opposition from conservatives for at least another decade. 

[GM Griffin]

Apparently during the last NH GOP debate:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/08/rick-santorum-mitt-romney-gay-rights-gop-debate_n_1192345.html?ref=mostpopular

[Governor Scott]

It already is a liability in many states, which is why most Republicans aren't even talking about social issues as much anymore.

[Ogre Mage]

In some states it is already a liability and I would argue my home state is one of them.

In the context of a Presidential general election, I predict that 2012 will be the final year that holding anti-gay positions will be a non-liability.  In 2016 I think it will be at least a small liability and full LGBT rights will be the default position of Democratic Presidential candidates.  By 2020 I think support for gay rights will be the view of a solid majority of Americans, though some strong social conservatives will continue to oppose it.

[realisticidealist]

Anti-gay positions have already become a liability. Anti-gay marriage positions won't for a few more cycles.

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

In liberal and swing states, it already is. In conservative states, not until several years after a Loving v. Virginia type thing.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Not a liability: National Republican primary, very conservative states
A liability: National general election, very liberal states (VT, MA, etc)

We are really nearing the end of opposition to LGBT rights in the US. The public already supports ENDA (I think even Romney supports this?) and the repeal of DADT by huge margins and we're seeing the shift towards supporting gay marriage which will lead to the end of the Defense of Marriage Act (and civil unions).

The speed on which things happen will vary. The fastest I think is if Obama moves on from supporting civil unions to supporting gay marriage (again), wins reelection, and Democrats hold the Senate allowing him to appoint more Supreme Court justices and California holds off on legalizing gay marriage at the ballot in favor of letting Perry v. Schwarzenegger reach the Supreme Court who would hopefully give us a Loving v. Virginia-like ruling legalizing gay marriage nationwide. It could be over this decade.

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

Don't be glum, chum. As biotechnology and Computer Science becomes more and more sophisticted, we will be give all kinds of fun, new ways to piss off  fundies.  

[Frodo]

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

How about toplessness and nudity on television...uncensored?  This is America -people go apesh**t over this issue.  

[asexual trans victimologist]

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

Viewing this as in end in itself is extremely questionable.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama is the only person who is openly anti gay marriage who is winning a statewide Democratic primary in California any time soon.

[TJ in Wisco]

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

Viewing this as in end in itself is extremely questionable.

Nah, we'll move on to other things like human cloning, genetic modification, and designer babies that will cause just as much uproar. Social progressivism requires an insatiable hunger for "social progress" that will not end at gay marriage. The religious right isn't going to run out of things to oppose any time soon.

[pillage the village, trash the scene]

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

Viewing this as in end in itself is extremely questionable.

Nah, we'll move on to other things like human cloning, genetic modification, and designer babies that will cause just as much uproar. Social progressivism requires an insatiable hunger for "social progress" that will not end at gay marriage. The religious right isn't going to run out of things to oppose any time soon.

Yeah. We're not giving up

[Vermin Supreme]

2014 or later

[Zach Vega]

Probably never. We're just in a phase - much like the LGBT movements of the 1970s.

[Vermin Supreme]

Probably never. We're just in a phase - much like the LGBT movements of the 1970s.and more

WTF? With states like Maryland and Washington passing LGBT bills, the movement is just getting started to be pick up by mainstream America. Explain how this is a fad that will die out?

[Nagas]

Probably never. We're just in a phase - much like the LGBT movements of the 1970s.

Civil rights for Blacks. It was just a phase, man.

[Tidewater_Wave]

When they start alienating people over the issue and taking away states' rights to vote on the issue. I'm a big tent conservative who likes to focus on issues the bring people together. There is nothing wrong with taking either side of this issue but to make it a cornerstone of a campaign goes a little far.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

Viewing this as in end in itself is extremely questionable.

Nah, we'll move on to other things like human cloning, genetic modification, and designer babies that will cause just as much uproar. Social progressivism requires an insatiable hunger for "social progress" that will not end at gay marriage. The religious right isn't going to run out of things to oppose any time soon.

Yeah. We're not giving up

I would hope you wouldn't, since I don't actually have that hunger for 'social progress' for its own sake and will probably join you when it comes to issues of re-normalizing eugenics and other such nastiness.

[Communists For McCain]

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

Viewing this as in end in itself is extremely questionable.

Nah, we'll move on to other things like human cloning, genetic modification, and designer babies that will cause just as much uproar. Social progressivism requires an insatiable hunger for "social progress" that will not end at gay marriage. The religious right isn't going to run out of things to oppose any time soon.

Yeah. We're not giving up

I would hope you wouldn't, since I don't actually have that hunger for 'social progress' for its own sake and will probably join you when it comes to issues of re-normalizing eugenics and other such nastiness.

Obviously Man-on-Dog will be the next cultural war.

[Tidewater_Wave]

How do you define anti-gay though? If someone isn't against gays but believes a marriage should be between a man and woman are they anti-gay? I know several gay people and only two that I've ever met have actually supported gay marriage. The others think marriage is for straight people and therefore want no part of what straights identify with. Rather they want their own separate culture and system. I think too often liberals make it sound like they stand for all gays when really the only thing they want to do is appear as sensitive to guilty voters who will look to their stances as heroic. In all reality the only thing that supporting gay marriage does politically is turn an issue into something it's not.

[TJ in Wisco]

I'll be kind of sad once it's all over. I don't think there will ever be another type of issue that enrages the religious right so much

Viewing this as in end in itself is extremely questionable.

Nah, we'll move on to other things like human cloning, genetic modification, and designer babies that will cause just as much uproar. Social progressivism requires an insatiable hunger for "social progress" that will not end at gay marriage. The religious right isn't going to run out of things to oppose any time soon.

Yeah. We're not giving up

I would hope you wouldn't, since I don't actually have that hunger for 'social progress' for its own sake and will probably join you when it comes to issues of re-normalizing eugenics and other such nastiness.

Obviously Man-on-Dog will be the next cultural war.

I doubt it because it would probably make the PETA people angry, fracturing the left.