NH Predictions
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Author Topic: NH Predictions  (Read 783 times)
Penelope
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« on: January 05, 2012, 06:51:44 AM »
I guess we should probably start these seeing as how we're but five days away now.

Nate Silver's Projections (Romney 47.2%, Paul 18.4%, Gingrich 11.8%)


My own prediction for now:

1. Romney (Not guessing margin of victory just yet, after Iowa)
2. Paul
3. Santorum
4. Huntsman
5. Gingrich
6. Perry
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2012, 06:56:03 AM »
Romney will probably break 50%. Paul, Gingrich, Huntsman and Santorum will be fighting at the bottom for second place. It's all or nothing for Gingrich to secure a second 'not Romney' position to have some chance as the race looks south.

So:

Romney




Gingrich

Paul
Huntsman/Santorum

Everyone else
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2012, 07:02:28 AM »
Romney: 48%
Paul: 23%
Santorum: 10%
Huntsman: 9%
Gingrich: 6%
Perry: (if still in race) 4%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2012, 07:05:00 AM »
Definitely going to wait for some new polling before I try to predict (and I'm not counting that Suffolk crap).
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2012, 07:16:56 AM »
It really blows that Romney is so strong in NH, which could easily kill an interesting race in the bud. I'd say the 'worst-case-for-Romney' scenario looks somethin like this:

Romney: 39%
Santorum: 20%
Paul: 15%
Hunstman: 10%
Perry: 8%
Gingrich: 7%

Which'd knock the Grinch out and place Santorum in position to make it rain blood in SC. Also Romney not breaking 40 may already be impossible at this point Sad
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NHI
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2012, 07:36:10 AM »
Romney
Paul
Santorum
Huntsman
Gingrich
Perry
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GLPman
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2012, 10:09:47 AM »
I'm not going to predict anything since we don't have sufficient polling yet, but the race will definitely be a race for second place.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2012, 10:13:06 AM »
Hard to say:

30-35% Romney
20-25% Paul
15-20% Santorum
ca. 15% Huntsman
ca. 10% Gingrich
ca. 2% Perry
ca. 3% Others
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Simfan34
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2012, 10:49:20 AM »
30% Huntsman
30% Romney
15% Paul
10% Santorum
10% Gingrich
5% Others
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2012, 11:19:41 AM »
1. Romney
2. Santorum
3. Paul
4. Huntsman
5. Gingrich
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The_Texas_Libertarian
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2012, 12:09:20 PM »
From a political perspective about managing expectations I would guess that Romney needs more than 40% to have it be a clear win.  Anything less, like say 37% would be spun as Romney's base plus a few independents with the overwhelming majority of the GOP base still voting for other people.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2012, 01:52:17 PM »
I'll want to see updated polling, but I'll bite.

Romney 36%
Paul 25%
Huntsman 17%
Santorum 12%
Gingrich 8%
Perry 1%

My view is that a win by Romney <10% will be a constructive loss, as will a vote total of <40%.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2012, 01:53:35 PM »
Romney
Paul
Huntsman
Santorum
Gingrich
Perry

I never predicts the exact percentages.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2012, 07:30:34 PM »
Roemer wins haha...
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Lambsbread
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2012, 08:46:44 PM »
Quote from: ChairmanSanchez on January 05, 2012, 01:53:35 PM
Romney
Paul
Huntsman
Santorum
Gingrich
Perry

I never predicts the exact percentages.

Yep, this.

Perry drops out afterward.
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CLARENCE 2015!
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2012, 08:50:37 PM »
Romney
Santorum
Paul
Gingrich
Huntsman
Perry
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2012, 08:51:23 PM »
Quote from: clarence on January 05, 2012, 08:50:37 PM
Romney
Santorum
Paul
Gingrich
Huntsman
Perry
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2012, 10:46:08 PM »
right now my guess is:

Romney               38
Paul                     23
Huntsman           14
Santorum            13
Gingrich               10
Perry, Roemerer, Supreme, etc  2
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2012, 10:58:14 PM »
God, I hope it's something like this:

Romney 35%
Santorum 25%
Huntsman 20%
Paul 15%

That would be the best case scenario for defeating Romney.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2012, 02:55:18 AM »
Mitt
Ron
Rick
Jon
Newt
Perry

Perry won't drop out. He's waiting for SC.
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