Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

At Issue tonight: Everyone agreed that a) Mulcair's oilsands comments are regional wedge politics b) the government's anti-environmentalist hyperbole is way overdoing it.

I expect the next big news (besides the budget omnibus that only we uber-junkies are following) federally will be the federal Liberal executive setting their convention date next month. Immediately followed by Bob Rae's resignation.

Oh, and can someone please explain the "Coderre's a great organizer" meme that's so prevalent in the TO media? Probably part of their total ignorance about Quebec.

[Holmes]

Strange new national poll from Ipsos Reid.

Ipsos Reid

CON 37% (+3)
NDP 35% (+2)
LIB 19% (-2)
BQ 5% (-2)
GRN 3% (-1)

Quebec

NDP 45%
BQ 23%
LIB 17%
CON 13%
GRN 1%

Ontario

CON 36%
NDP 35%
LIB 23%
GRN 6%

Strange only because of the NDP's 22 point lead in Quebec and are in the mid thirties in Ontario, yet are in second place nationally... while every other poll has them ahead in BC and the Atlantic, and not too bad in the prairies. Wanna see crosstabs on this.

Regardless, mid thirties in Ontario is pretty good.

[ModerateCoward]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/05/14/bc-ndp-poll.html

[President Marokai]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/05/14/bc-ndp-poll.html

"Free enterprise coalition"? Really?

[Χahar]

BC is winnable for Dippers. Not so much SK, MB so long as Mulcair keeps parroting McGuinty with talk of "Dutch disease" plus C&T.

I wonder how the NDP will be doing in the polls in BC once the unpopular Liberal government is voted out of office, and an NDP government installed?

That's the problem with looking at these poll numbers; they won't mean anything come 2015, since a provincial NDP government will have been in power for quite some time by then. It's the same deal in Manitoba.

[Hatman]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/05/14/bc-ndp-poll.html

Wow. I thought he had a ceiling of ~45% in the province.

Well, the "free enterprise coalition" can coalesce all they want, they're not going to win with the NDP polling that high. BTW, I read that the BC Liberals are thinking of changing their name to the "BC Party". Considering their stupid rhetoric, wouldn't calling themselves the "Free enterprise Party" make more sense?

[ModerateCoward]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2012/05/14/bc-ndp-poll.html

Wow. I thought he had a ceiling of ~45% in the province.

Well, the "free enterprise coalition" can coalesce all they want, they're not going to win with the NDP polling that high. BTW, I read that the BC Liberals are thinking of changing their name to the "BC Party". Considering their stupid rhetoric, wouldn't calling themselves the "Free enterprise Party" make more sense?

I think most of BC residents forgot previous NDP government

[Vote UKIP!]

Excuse me for interrupting the conversation, but would someone explain the primary differences between he Liberal Party and the NDP?

Also, is the Liberal Party done as a national party?

[Hatman]

Liberal voters are the one's who are "too wealthy to vote NDP and too smart to vote Tory". Basically they are an establishment party, representing traditional Liberal views. They are economically centre-right, socially centre-left. The NDP is a traditional social democratic party, except until now has not been one of the establishment parties (and still isn't, really).

Only time will tell if the Liberals are dead. I hope so, though.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Excuse me for interrupting the conversation, but would someone explain the primary differences between he Liberal Party and the NDP?

Not a Canadian, but the NDP is to the left of the Liberals.  The Liberals are essentially non-ideological, they tend to support leftist social policy and whatever economic policy they feel will win them the most votes (in the 90s they supported tax and spending cuts - but were elected on a platform of protectionism; in the recent election they literally copied most of the NDP platform and had it backfire on them).

Also, is the Liberal Party done as a national party?

Short term no, medium term maybe.

[RogueBeaver]

Brokerage isn't what it used to be. Catholics and immigrants used to be firmly in their corner, for instance.

[Holmes]

Forum Ontario poll, May 14

Provincial:
Cons 34/ NDP 32/ Libs 27

Federal:
Cons 35/ NDP 35/ Libs 22

NDP up in 416 with 44%, but I'm not gonna trust that with such small sample size. Still, does anything think they can carry Toronto Center with that number?

[Hatman]

Perhaps, but especially if they divided the riding in half; they would win the south end easily. However, if they make two skinny ridings out of it, who knows? (TC is set to get smaller, as it's over populated)

[RogueBeaver]

Rae would probably win on a personal vote, like most remaining Grits.

[RogueBeaver]

Etobicoke Centre result overturned- will Opitz appeal to the Supremes?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/05/18/pol-court-throws-out-etobicoke-centre-election-wrzesnewskyj.html

[RogueBeaver]

Deschamps is retiring from the Court.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/supreme-court-justice-retires-giving-harper-chance-to-appoint-majority/article2437085/

[Smid]

Shouldn't be overly hard to get the 9 vote margin in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Riviére-du-Loup overturned based on this ruling.

Hopefully the five people who were found to have voted twice cop a hefty fine.

[Holmes]

But where does it end? This is so stupid. I'd rather just defer to Elections Canada's judgement and handling of the issue, rather than election results being contested at court and overturned whenever the results are close, forcing by-elections.

[RogueBeaver]

But where does it end? This is so stupid. I'd rather just defer to Elections Canada's judgement and handling of the issue, rather than election results being contested at court and overturned whenever the results are close, forcing by-elections.

Hear, hear. It already went through an automatic recount last year.

[Judäischen Volksfront]

Shouldn't be overly hard to get the 9 vote margin in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Riviére-du-Loup overturned based on this ruling.

Hopefully the five people who were found to have voted twice cop a hefty fine.

If I were the CPC strategist I wouldn't risk it. Given the current NDP honeymoon and anti-Harper sentiment in Quebec, a by-election could well result in a solid NDP victory and prompt accusations of Conservatives wasting money for being sore losers.

[RogueBeaver]

Shouldn't be overly hard to get the 9 vote margin in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Riviére-du-Loup overturned based on this ruling.

Hopefully the five people who were found to have voted twice cop a hefty fine.

If I were the CPC strategist I wouldn't risk it. Given the current NDP honeymoon and anti-Harper sentiment in Quebec, a by-election could well result in a solid NDP victory and prompt accusations of Conservatives wasting money for being sore losers.

I agree with you 100%. The flirtation between Harper and Quebec ended during the 2008 campaign and won't return unless Mulcair stumbles horribly on a Quebec-related issue.

[Smid]

Shouldn't be overly hard to get the 9 vote margin in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Riviére-du-Loup overturned based on this ruling.

Hopefully the five people who were found to have voted twice cop a hefty fine.

If I were the CPC strategist I wouldn't risk it. Given the current NDP honeymoon and anti-Harper sentiment in Quebec, a by-election could well result in a solid NDP victory and prompt accusations of Conservatives wasting money for being sore losers.

I agree with you 100%. The flirtation between Harper and Quebec ended during the 2008 campaign and won't return unless Mulcair stumbles horribly on a Quebec-related issue.

I don't disagree. I was trying to make the same point Holmes made of "where does it all end" by drawing attention to other narrow margins. I don't like this ruling at all. Mistakes were made by Elections Canada but it's the Tory MP who is penalised despite there being no evidence at all (nor, from what I read in the article, even any accusation) of wrongdoing on his part. If anything, it encourages voter fraud - a party could have unenrolled voters turn out in marginal ridings, and hope no other parties realise if they win, but then bring it up and have the result overturned if they lose. Anyway, I just think it's wrong that the person penalised is someone against whom there is no evidence of vote fraud. Hopefully there is an appeal and hopefully the Supreme Court overturns the judgement.

[RogueBeaver]

Even the Star wants Mulcair to back down on the oilsands.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1181476--tim-harper-tom-mulcair-will-not-move-but-conservatives-define-oilsands-debate

Another Air Canada pilots' strike?

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/air-canada-pilots-dispute-goes-to-arbitration-after-negotiations-fail-152161675.html

[Holmes]

Criticizing the oil sands'  environmental and economic effects on the rest of the country is sacrilege, yes. They are what saved our country from economic doom and are our future. We are the past.

[Hashemite]

If Mulcair doesn't back down on the oil sands, I could feasibly vote NDP next time.