Canada General Discussion

[RogueBeaver]

While I wouldn't rule out entirely the idea of Charest pulling yet another rabbit out of his hat, largely agreed with Hebert.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1212097--hebert-jean-charest-s-hand-has-once-again-been-weakened

[RogueBeaver]

We know that the BC Grits are ficked with a rusty knife, new polling just confirms it.

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/06/bc-new-democrats-hover-near-50.html#comment-form

[Foucaulf]

Only the Ipsos poll is publicly available, and that's even more terrifying for the Liberals. the NDP leads in every single demographic - the closest the Liberals get is being eight points behind in the "75k+" group.

The only question now is if the Liberals survive the election. They should, since the Conservatives are now stagnating. Cummins has no charisma and not even a riding on which he can ride into the legislature. Kevin Falcon will probably win the leadership election after the Liberals lose in 2013, after which he'll target Conservative voters by offering to scrap the carbon tax and the like.

[RogueBeaver]

Hopefully Falcon does win that race. While I'm sympathetic to the BCCP, Dix is way too left-wing (IMO) for the luxury of an extended '90s-style duel for centre-right supremacy.

[Holmes]

Does this link to the BC poll work for you guys?

Here's another national Forum poll with 37 NDP/30 CPC/22 LPC. With Trudeau, it's 32 NDP/28 CPC/28 LPC.

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks for the poll, I only linked 308 because they didn't provide a direct one.

As for the national stuff, . It makes sense because Trudeau has demographic appeal to the soft left, fellow yuppies, and cultural minorities, so he eats from both parties. Especially in Ontario and BC.

[Holmes]

He literally suffers from foot-in-mouth syndrome though. Calling Peter Kent of piece of sh**t, saying Quebec should separate if Harper changes how he sees Canada... heh.

[Foucaulf]

Thank you so much for the Forum poll! This is also a "BC issues" poll, which makes for lovely reading.

Not much to say about the national poll, except that seeing the NDP so far ahead is making me a bit light-headed. Also, Trudeau has to at least run in order to keep the Liberals alive. The Liberal "revival strategy" is all pinned on getting the citizenry more interested in the campaign, and Trudeau is the only one recognized by that citizenry. Maybe other Liberals should start picking fights with Conservative senators to raise their profile...

[RogueBeaver]

I crossposted that poll in the Liberal thread so we don't derail.

Shall we talk sleaze?


http://www.windsorstar.com/news/Quebec%2Blieutenant%2Bgovernor%2Bclaims%2Broyal%2Bprivilege/6792628/story.html

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Employees%2Blinked%2Bcousin%2Bcompany%2Beach%2Bgave%2BMastro%2Bcampaign/6790645/story.html

[Hatman]

I was just going to post the FR poll, but you guys beat me to it. Ugh, I didn't realize that Trudeau would bump the Liberals numbers that much. Still though, 37-30 is a nice lead

[Hatman]

Some notes about the FR poll:

The NDP is ahead in every age group except 65+
The NDP even leads among men (36-32)
The NDP is tied with the Tories in Ontario and are ahead in the Prairies!
The NDP is ahead in every income category, including nearly half of voters earning less than $20,000 (voting the way they should )

With Trudeau:
The NDP drops to 3rd in Ontario
Liberals gain 12% in Quebec, mostly to the expense of the NDP

Harper's approval is 31-61
Mulcair's approval is 39-31
Rae is 40-32

[RogueBeaver]

I was just going to post the FR poll, but you guys beat me to it. Ugh, I didn't realize that Trudeau would bump the Liberals numbers that much. Still though, 37-30 is a nice lead

For now.   I do wonder what that alt-matchup looks like in seating terms.


Ugh, Toews is loathsome.

http://www.canada.com/travel/Listening%2Bequipment%2Bwill%2Brecord%2Bconversations%2BCanadian%2Bairports%2BCBSA/6794642/story.html

[Hashemite]

Sweet numbers overall, though at 30%, the Tories are probably hitting some floor.

[RogueBeaver]

Sweet numbers overall, though at 30%, the Tories are probably hitting some floor.

Yep. But I'm not worried, we're 3.5 years out.

[RogueBeaver]

So who blinks?

http://www.lfpress.com/comment/columnists/christina_blizzard/2012/06/15/19883946.html

[Hatman]

Ugh, Christina Blizzard is a huge HP

[Senator MaxQue]

So who blinks?

http://www.lfpress.com/comment/columnists/christina_blizzard/2012/06/15/19883946.html

That article is so biased than I'm not even thinking about it.

[You kip if you want to...]

Question from an international: what's the deal with Bob Rae being so hated in Ontario?

[RogueBeaver]

Question from an international: what's the deal with Bob Rae being so hated in Ontario?

Basically getting squeezed between the Harrisite Tories and unions after 1991. These links have the gory details.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rae_Days

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Rae#Premier

[RogueBeaver]

IMO McGuinty probably accepts. Unless he's so hell-bent on a snap election that he pulls the plug anyways, which I doubt.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1212922--ontario-budge-2012-andrea-horwath-offers-olive-branch-to-dalton-mcguinty-to-avert-snap-election

BTW, there was also a good article this weekend about how McGuinty lost control because he isn't as iron-fisted as Harper when it comes to shutting down unpleasant committee work and other things.

[Hatman]

Harper had the experience of being in opposition during a minority government, so he knew what he had to do. McGuinty hasn't had that luxury.

[RogueBeaver]

On second thought... maybe there will be an election after all.

http://m.cp24.com/news/20120618/120618_Budget_Deal.html

[Hatman]

[Senator MaxQue]

In Quebec, a Léger poll have Quebec Liberals leading by 1% provincially and NDP at 52%, federally.

[Hatman]

Great find that Teddy posted on Facebook: http://c-spanvideo.org/program/Parli