"Never give in".... President John McCain Timeline

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This is my first shot at writing a timeline so bear with me...

I have always admired John McCain. He comes from good stock- Navy royalty- and has a love of country no one can deny... and that love has been put to the test. Very few politicians nowadays have the credibility of service and sacrifice that John McCain has .

Everyone knows he was wronged in SC in 2000- that was a travesty of American politics.  This is about what would have happened if he had not been defamed so... and if he ended up winning the South Carolina Primary and the election

Hope you enjoy!
clarence

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The 2000 Presidential campaign is off to a fast start... Vice President Al Gore quickly defeats Former Senator Bill Bradley in Iowa and New Hampshire to become the presumptive nominee. The GOP race is far more complicated... after winning the Iowa Caucuses, many pundits assumed Texas Governor George W. Bush would have a clear path to the nomination. His momentum was halted by Senator John McCain's landslide victory in the New Hampshire Primary.

Now- Governor Bush and Senator McCain head to South Carolina where they will make their case to the voters as to who should be the Republican nominee for President. At Bush HQ, campaign strategist Karl Rove knows that something needs to be done to stop McCain's momentum.  He resolves to run a shadow negative campaign against the well-respected Vietnam Veteran and maverick Senator

"Would you be more or less likely to vote for Senator McCain if you knew that he had fathered a black child out of wedlock," asked a "pollster"
"Hey Jim, did you hear that McCain is gay and cheated on his wife with a man?" said a man to his neighbor
"Mark my words, if you elect John McCain President, you will soon realize he was converted into a Soviet spy when he was allegedly being tortured in Vietnam" said a mysterious "veterans group leader" at an American Legion Post

The 2000 South Carolina Primary is being fought not with debates and TV ads, but with whispers and innuendo. At a campaign meeting in Charleston, McCain resolves to fight back. "I will never give in to this bullsh**t" he says, seething

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Thank you!

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Three days before the South Carolina Primary, Senator McCain holds a press conference with his wife Cindy and Congressman Lindsey Graham by his side. In his speech, he denounces Governor Bush and accuses his campaign of the nasty attacks. “Governor Bush and his propagandist Karl Rove have smeared me in a manner that is untrue, unprofessional, unethical, and un-American. After eight years of President Clinton, the American people deserve an honest and positive campaign of ideas. In 1988, then-Vice President Bush and his campaign manager Lee Atwater were responsible for vicious attacks on the record and character of Michael Dukakis. While I voted for Bush as did most Americans, we all realized how vile such negative campaigning is. At the end of his life, Lee Atwater apologized to Michael Dukakis and America for the campaign he had run. I turn to Governor Bush and call on him to apologize to the American people and especially the people of South Carolina for the campaign he has run. I call on him to fire Karl Rove. I call on him to run this race on how he wants to improve our country. To do those things would be to honor our nation and our people, both of whom mean more to me then anything else on Earth.”

McCain’s speech is commended by nearly everyone. Congressman Graham campaigns across the state and on the airwaves for the Senator and he is joined by Congressman Mark Sanford. Evangelical and Christian leaders, previously supporters of Bush, remain silent in wake of the attacks from the Bush campaign.  In a speech the next day, Governor Bush does not deny his campaign’s involvement but says he knew nothing of the nature of the attacks, which he apologizes for. “Senator McCain is an American hero, and my differences with him have to do with his views, not his character.” Momentum is clearly on McCain’s side, who is now seen very sympathetically by most Americans.

The results of the South Carolina Primary are good news for the McCain campaign.

South Carolina Primary
51 McCain
44 Bush
5 Keyes

In his election night speech, Republican frontrunner Senator John McCain looks ahead to the upcoming campaign. “With these dark days behind us, we must move forward a united party ready to take back the Presidency for the American people.”

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After his South Carolina defeat, Governor Bush calls a meeting of his closest advisors- from Karl Rove to Joe Allbaugh to James BAker to HW- back in Texas. HW comes in with an agenda- W needs to leave the race now, with some dignity, to give Jeb a chance in four or eight years. He convinces Baker to go along. 

The race is dire for George W. Bush. Polling has shown him significantly behind nationally to John McCain.  Pundits and consultants are calling McCain the clear frontrunner and McCain is getting an endless stream of endorsements, with Bush getting frequently condemned for the campaign. The first item on the agenda in Austin is Bush's dismissal of Rove as his campaign strategist. It was Rove's negative campaign tactics which backfired and which are now costing George W. Bush the nomination.  Eventually, George HW Bush and James Baker are successful in convincing W to leave the race, despite the older son's resentment of his father's preference for the younger.

That night, Governor Bush announces a press conference the next day in Austin and privately calls Senator McCain. Their conversation is brief but productive with Bush again apologizing for the whisper campaign in South Carolina and letting McCain know he will campaign for him all he needs. McCain, knowing Bush's favorable numbers plummeted, does not plan to follow up. 

"My journey to the White House is ending, but our message of compassionate conservatism will carry on with Senator McCain."

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Now the presumptive nominee, Senator McCain has to consider his most important decision yet- who to choose for the Vice Presidential nominee. He gathers his inner circle of Mike Murphy, Rick Davis, and Lindsey Graham to begin considering options. McCain wants to make a historic but risky choice while his advisors urge him to play it safe- "The number 1 rule of a VP pick is do no harm," says Murphy. McCain officially appoints former Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker to lead the vetting process and select a candidate.

After Colin Powell refuses to be vetted, the list is narrowed down to-
John Danforth, former Missouri Senator
Phil Gramm, Texas Senator
Mike Huckabee, Arkansas Governor

McCain prefers Huckabee. Governor Huckabee is young, energetic from recent weight loss, a great speaker, and evangelical Christian. However, Baker points out the similarities between Huckabee and President Clinton which rules him out. Danforth is thought to be too moderate to complement McCain, so the nod goes to Senator Gramm.

Senator Phil Gramm is a tall, large figure who ran for President in 1996. Hailing from the home state of McCain's primary rival George W. Bush, he speaks with a low but strong Southern accent. He talks more like a professor then a preacher but the conservative gravitas he adds to the ticket makes him a universally praised choice.

The 2000 Republican Ticket: McCain/Gramm

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No he was not- considered too inexperiecned

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Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Vice President Al Gore considers who to select for his running mate. Campaign advisors James Carville, Terry McCauliffe, and Donna Brazille settle on Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman with Gore. Lieberman politely declines- he does not want to run agianst his dear friend John McCain. Gore realizes that to escape Clinton's shadow and become his own man, he needs to choose a running mate who is not a Washington insider. He has his campaign managers vet all Democratic governors in the country and one name sticks out: Governor Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire. In early August, Gore announces Shaheen as the 2000 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee.

The 2000 Democratic Ticket: Gore/Shaheen


A Gallup poll before the conventions shows the race as following-
47 McCain/Gramm
43 Gore/Shaheen

The choice of Shaheen has given Gore a boost but his favorability numbers remain well behind McCain's. This is due, say pundits, to McCain's popularity following his battles with George W. Bush in the primaries.

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Wow- I did not realize you all enjoyed... I will post again later today

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The Republican National Convention in Philadelphia shows a party united behind Senator McCain. The focus is on the standard bearer’s integrity and heroism. “When others ran, he served” said Congressman JC Watts as the keynote speaker. General Colin Powell, General Norman Schwarzkopf, and 1996 nominee Senator Bob Dole all spoke to Senator McCain’s status as an American hero- specifically in contrast to President Clinton. The message is clear- McCain is the anti-Clinton. A President McCain would act the same way Commander McCain and Senator McCain have acted- with integrity and courage.



Both Senator McCain and Senator Gramm give well-received speeches. Notably, neither man attacks the Democratic ticket in their speech. The GOP ticket sees poll numbers surge especially when Americans are asked “which ticket are the stronger leaders?” Three days after the Republican convention closes, the Gallup national poll shows as follows-

53 McCain/Gramm
40 Gore/Shaheen

Disgraced former Clinton political strategist Dick Morris tells CNN- “After two terms of Clinton, the American people want to see strength, courage, and readiness. John McCain embodies those words.” Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich agrees- “There is no candidate who can provide a greater contrast to Bill Clinton then John McCain.”

On the other side of the spectrum…Former Senator Bill Bradley- Gore’s primary opponent- urges voters to wait for the Democratic convention- “These events are showcases of the candidates. A convention bump is typical and when American s get to know Al Gore beyond the fact that he has been a dedicated Vice President to Bill Clinton, he will surge on his own.”

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The Democratic National Convention in Los Angeles comes at the heels of the highly successful RNC and the Democrats aim to match the Republicans in enthusiasm and unity. Vice President Gore and his team have the difficult task of taking credit for the Clinton Administration’s successes while presenting the VP as his own man. On the early nights of the convention- President Clinton and Tipper Gore give well-received addresses but it is Governor Shaheen, in her VP acceptance speech, who truly shines.

Vice President Gore’s speech is criticzed for being too safe when he truly needed to change the game. His pre-speech smooch with his wife Tipper earns him points for personality but he fails to distinguish himself from Clinton.



In his speech he references his opponent only briefly- “Senator McCain is a good man who has heroically served our nation- but this election is about who will fight for the middle class, who will work to preserve our environment, who will protect social security and Medicare for generations to come, who will care about the issues that matter to the everyday American…Senator McCain has too often been on the wrong side of these issues and on the wrong side of history.”

Gallup shows that the convention did not produce the bump the Gore/Shaheen campaign would have preferred but did create some movement-

52 McCain/Gramm
43 Gore/Shaheen

The race has tightened slightly as the campaign moves into debate season…

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I will post to the general election tonight- the October surprise is an actual historical event that did not render quite the signiifcance I would have expected on the actual 2000 race...and I believe McCain would have made it a far bigger issue considering his own past. The way I believe McCain would have dealt with it would have changed the last decade of world history completely...

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At the beginning of October the race shows a moderate McCain lead-

Gallup 10/1/00

52 McCain/Gramm
44 Gore/Shaheen

With Senator McCain above the 50% mark, Vice President Gore and his campaign team realize they need to change the game with the debates. Gore and his team- along with Governor Shaheen- prepare extensively for the debates. The first debate between Gore and McCain features domestic policy. In the debate, McCain attacks President Clinton's integrity and touts his maverick record on issues... Gore displays a deeper knowledge of domestic issues especially Social Security and is able to portay McCain's plans as dangerous to seniors. Polls show Gore as narrowly winning the first debate-

The Vice Presidential debate between Governor Shaheen and Senator Gramm is more one-sided with SEnator Gramm attacking Shaheen for her lack of national experience. In his words "Governor, I have great respect for you- but being the Governor of New Hampshire does not prepare you to be a heartbeat away from the most powerful job in the world." For her part- Shaheen appears relateable and charismatic and some critics accuse Gramm of being too insensitive towards her gender but polls nonetheless show Gramm as ahead

The Town Hall style debate between Vice President Gore and Senator McCain is far better for McCain...the town-hall style is what propelled him to a victory in New Hampshire which led to his nomination. He appears honest, relateable, and more of a "common man" then Gore, who seems reluctant to look directly at voters asking questions and focuses more on obscure policy planks then the effects they have on actual people. This debate takes place October 11, 2000- the next day, the world turns upside down...



On October 12, 2000- the USS Cole- a Navy destroyer- is bombed while docked in a port in Yemen. 17 sailors are killed while nearly forty others are severly injured. Islamic extremist terrorist organization Al Qaeda claims responsibility for the attack. Both candidates suspend their campaigns but it is Senator McCain whose actions become better remembered-



The retired Navy Captain- the son and grandson of Admirals- gives a solemn speech about his experience in the military- of the courage and strength of will that he saw, but also of the tragedy. He pledges to make the first priority of his Presidency the pursuit of t hose who committed this action. The Senator says "We did not expect nor did we invite this attack, but we will not shirk our responsibility to avenge the brave men who were killed. There is true evil in the world- but in my life I have never seen a time when good has not triumphed."

The debate a few days later was already slated to focus on foreign policy and McCain uses the opportunity to outline what he calls the McCain Doctrine: there is no distinction between terrorists and those who harbor them. He pledges to dismantle Al Qaeda and the Taliban regime and unite the world against terror and evil.

Gallup Poll- 10/20/00

57 McCain/Gramm
38 Gore/Shaheen

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In the weeks leading up to the election- Gore/Shaheen campaign chairman Bill Daley and campaign manager Donna Brazille see the writing on the wall. They urge Gore and Shaheen to focus on Tennesee and New Hampshire to avoid embarassing home state losses and preserve their political future. Word of this directive gets leaked prompting further embarrassment...

Meanwile- several prominent celebrities and even Congressman Dennis Kucinich publicly endorse Green Party candidate Ralph Nader. Kucinich says "Al Gore isn't going to win so let's vote for some one who would really change this country and send a message to the Democrats that we need to nominate a true progressive in 2004."

Senator McCain spends the final weeks of the campaign criticizing President Clinton for inaction towards the Taliban and Al Qaeda in response to the USS Cole bombing. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright is working to diplomatically  pressure the Taliban to relinquish control of Afghanistan but polls show the American people see military action as the route to take in response to the attack on the Cole. This leads to a Meet the Press interview two days before the election where Senator Paul Wellstone says "If elected President, John McCain will take us to war on Day One. 'Remember the Cole' sounds an awful lot like 'Remember the Maine' to me, and in that case we may have gone to war because some of our own agents sabotaged the ship."



These comments cause major controversy- they force Gore to condemn them and separate himself from Wellstone. In his final rally November 6 in Nashville, Gore pleads once more with voters. "The odds are long but our cause remains just. These past few years have had bumps in the road but so much progress has been made. Give me and Jeanne Shaheen another four and watch what we can all achieve together for our nation."

John McCain's final rally in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania is attended by nearly 100,000 people to see the next President. HE doesn't mention his opponent or President Clinton. Instead- he focuses forward. "I have spent my life fighting for America because she has given me so much more then I have given her. Tomorrow- if I am elected President- I commit to you that I will work every day to earn the honor you have bestowed upon me- the honor of leading this nation to a better, stronger, and safer future."

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I will post the results tonight...

Exit polls show voters valuing integrity, strong leadership and concerned most about national security and foreign policy.

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Thank you MRX... results coming shortly

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Just a note- I did not want the map too complicated so I did not include shades or congressional districts... it will show the states and the result. I will post the results for President and then speeches followed by some Congressional results

Also- total voters in the 2000 election-

Total Voters- 105,347,141

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MCCAIN ELECTED PRESIDENT
2000 Presidential Election Results

ELECTORAL VOTE
John S. McCain III- 441
Albert A. Gore, Jr.- 97

POPULAR VOTE
John S. McCain III / W. Philip Gramm- 55.77% / 58,752,101
Albert A. Gore, Jr. / C. Jeanne Shaheen- 39.28% / 41,380,357
Ralph Nader / Winona LaDuke- 3.93% / 4,140,143





John McCain- The 43rd President of the United States


Phil Gramm- The 46th Vice President of the United States

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I took the swing in the popular vote and applied it to the states- Maryland and many other states were VERY close... in some of those states a stronger Nader would also make the difference- he is over 1% above where he was

And MRX- Obama vs McCain had a larger margin then that and that was 53-46 in the popular vote... this is 56-39

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By the way- in some states I swung more or less...and some I excluded such as Tennessee and NH which both went for Bush but I had Gore and Shaheen campaigning there the last week