Comeback kid Sarkozy ?

[Tender Branson]

Nicolas Sarkozy closes gap on rival Francois Hollande

Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, has closed the gap in voting intentions on his opposition Socialist rival Francois Hollande, just four months before they face off in an election, according to the first poll of the year.

The poll by the Ifop institute for the Journal du Dimanche newspaper forecast Mr Hollande would beat Mr Sarkozy 54 to 46 per cent in a head-to-head run-off - the closest margin between the two favourites in many months and two points closer than in the last Ifop poll in December.

Mr Sarkozy's supporters have begun privately boasting that the momentum in the race now favours the president, who has been slowly building support while his once dominant rival's campaign got off to a lacklustre start.

The president is not expected to officially declare his intention to run for a second five-year term until March, but no one doubts he will and his weekly agenda has long resembled a campaign programme.

Mr Hollande, a former Socialist leader who has never held ministerial office, enjoyed strong public support during his party's primary season last year, but has made a slow start to the campaign proper.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9000771/Nicolas-Sarkozy-closes-gap-on-rival-Francois-Hollande.html

[You kip if you want to...]

For god's sake, if the PS let this one go...

[Keystone Phil]

Sarkozy will win re-election.

[RogueBeaver]

Sarkozy will win re-election.

Hopefully.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm left speechless.

[Phony Moderate]

Hasn't Sarkozy described himself as a socialist or something?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hasn't Sarkozy described himself as a socialist or something?

Compared to Obama, he certainly is.
In the context of French politics, nope.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Why on Earth...?

[useful idiot]

I'm not up on the minutiae of French politics, nor do I have a dog in the fight (obviously), so can someone basically give me a short summary of why Sarkozy seemed so beatable until recently? Is it just jobs/economy stuff or something else?

[Landslide Lyndon]

With the Eurozone crisis unlikely to get better, I'm skeptical about how much of a chance Sarkozy has to get reelected.

[Lief 🗽]

Um... he's still losing by eight points, which is a pretty hefty margin by French presidential election standards.

[Vosem]

This entire thread is nonsensical. Obviously we all hope Sarkozy pulls it out, but he's still losing by 8 points.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hE97--t_AKY

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm not up on the minutiae of French politics, nor do I have a dog in the fight (obviously), so can someone basically give me a short summary of why Sarkozy seemed so beatable until recently? Is it just jobs/economy stuff or something else?

There are several reasons that are adding up. First of all is, of course, the economy. Not only the economy, but the fact Sarko's policies are perceived as ufair, with tax cuts favoring the wealthier coupled with austerity measures hurting the lower and middle classes (like the pensions reform). The idea is now settled among French people that the government is supporting the interests of a wealthy minority at the expenses of the "people". This is a very important issue in France, as strange as this may sound in the USA.

There is also a "cultural" issue : Sarkozy's style of government has been very different from that of his predecessors. From De Gaulle to Chirac, French Presidents have tended to adopt a very solemn, quasi-Monarchic attitude, speaking rarely and often in vague terms, letting the PM handle the everyday political job. Instead, Sarkozy has acted in a way which was seen as childish and unpresidential by a lot of people, especially conservative one. His constant politicking, the way he marginalized the PM and the cabinet and seems to be deciding of everything, his authoritarian style toward his own party, but also his aproach toward money and luxury (the so-called "bling-bling" attitude), or his vulgar language... All this has pissed off al lot of people who just think he doesn't behave as a President.

Now, why is he surging back ? Well, first of all because people are idiots who tend to forgive forget everything. Ask yourself how Chirac managed to win in 1995, or how people bought into Mitterrand's revolutionary speech in 1965-81 after he had been a cabinet minister during the whole time of 4th Republic. And of course, because Hollande has led a horrible campaign, coupling major missteps (like the electoral agreement with the Greens which pissed off everybody) to a general inability to say anything meaningful. Hollande still hasn't clarified any of the ambiguities regarding his platform, hasn't managed to come with a meaningful idea, hasn't managed to inspire people with his dull rhetoric. He's, basically, an epic fail of a candidate.

I've no idea how this will end up. It's still a long road for Sarkozy to win, but we all know he will do his best to be reelected. Hollande still has some time to develop a meaningful campaign, so at this point everything can happen. Maybe he has willingfully decided to start his campaign later on. Still, the PS has managed to transform an unlosable election into a potential defeat. That's absolutely pathetic.

[RodPresident]

Hollande was very lucky to get nomination. There are lots of persons better than him at PS that can beat Sarkozy. He's a party bureaucrat, behind-the-stages person. His limit is Prime Minister.

[republicanism]

As long as they rule the EU with an iron fist and are in the position to force their politics on other, weaker countries, it will be very hard for the Left to defeat one of the Euro overlords in an election.

Most people are, deep in their heart, national chauvinists, and they love how the 'lazy Greek' and the 'corrupt Italian' have to obey their Chancellor/President.

Don't think that French and German are different in this regard.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

As long as they rule the EU with an iron fist and are in the position to force their politics on other, weaker countries, it will be very hard for the Left to defeat one of the Euro overlords in an election.

Most people are, deep in their heart, national chauvinists, and they love how the 'lazy Greek' and the 'corrupt Italian' have to obey their Chancellor/President.

Don't think that French and German are different in this regard.

The more I learn about the European Union the more disgusting it seems to get.

I remember when I was younger and had a very superficial understanding of politics I thought it sounded like an absolutely wonderful, humane concept.

[republicanism]

I remember when I was younger and had a very superficial understanding of politics I thought it sounded like an absolutely wonderful, humane concept.

Yeah it does. But so does the Soviet union, right?

Same is true for me by the way. I was an enthusiastic Europhile until 4-5 years ago. I started drifting away from the concept when I realized...

a) ...how much Democracy is reduced in the EU system.
b) ...how much of a handicap the neo-liberal common sense among the EU ruling class is for every national government of red shade.
c) ...how little the EU, even if it worked much better than today, has to offer for the working class and the poor in general.


But we are off topic.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

a) ...how much Democracy is reduced in the EU system.
b) ...how much of a handicap the neo-liberal common sense among the EU ruling class is for every national government of red shade.
c) ...how little the EU, even if it worked much better than today, has to offer for the working class and the poor in general.

Point b) and c) are why I will never understand how some left-wingers can be such die-hard EU-defenders. I mean I think the EU is repulsive just for being so completly anti-democratic, but at least when the EU forces legislation down the throat of its member countries it's most usually policies that further my political agenda.

Why people like Antonio, or Belgiansocialist are so much in love with the EU when the union has done more than any other single institution or organisation to prevent and roll back Socialist policies in Europe.   

[Landslide Lyndon]

As long as they rule the EU with an iron fist and are in the position to force their politics on other, weaker countries, it will be very hard for the Left to defeat one of the Euro overlords in an election.

Most people are, deep in their heart, national chauvinists, and they love how the 'lazy Greek' and the 'corrupt Italian' have to obey their Chancellor/President.

Don't think that French and German are different in this regard.

Uh...

I was under the impression that French people hated the fact that Sarkozy has become Merkel's sidekick.
 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why people like Antonio, or Belgiansocialist are so much in love with the EU when the union has done more than any other single institution or organisation to prevent and roll back Socialist policies in Europe.

I'm not some kind of utopist living in dreamland, SC. I'm well aware on EU's flaws, which are enormous and disgusting. I hate the way the Commission works without any actual mandate from the European People, I hate the fact they enact failed neoliberal policies, the fact selfish countries always refuse any progress in common solidarity, the fact Germans have imposed their retarded austerity dogma and are ready to ruin every country to maintain it. However, I also realize that without the EU, European countries are even more screwed. As weak as European integration is, the little bit we have is still indispensable and we'll need more in the following years. In the word's globalized economy, countries which represent 1% of the world population and face a massive demographic ageing won't be remain competitive for long, and especially won't be able to sustain comprehensive welfare states as multinational corporations grow stronger. European federalism is the only way for Europe to survive as one of the world's power, to escape the natural decline we are starting to experience. Not the European Federalism as we know it, but real European federalism : with a democratic federal government, elected by the European people and which has an effective power over national government. Why is it so hard to understand ? Why do you Euroskeptics systematically take commitment to the europeist ideal as a support to EU as it currently exists ? Why the possibility to reform EU and correct its flaws rather than outright disbanding it is always discarded ? This is what I don't understand.

[Franzl]

Ah but the thing is that I don't even like the idea of full European integration in theory. The fact that the EU is an authoritarian, undemocratic institution now only makes my opposition more practicle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ah but the thing is that I don't even like the idea of full European integration in theory. The fact that the EU is an authoritarian, undemocratic institution now only makes my opposition more practicle.

OK, I see... It's only a pretext.

[Franzl]

Ah but the thing is that I don't even like the idea of full European integration in theory. The fact that the EU is an authoritarian, undemocratic institution now only makes my opposition more practicle.

OK, I see... It's only a pretext.

No, not a pretext. I don't like the idea of centralizing power in Europe.

Things are made worse by the current state of the European Union, that's what I'm saying. That makes it even more unacceptable to me than the idea in theory.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Franzl, I'd be interested in knowing why you consider European integration theoretically undesirable.

[afleitch]

In all fairness the EU has through working time directives, employment rights etc given remarkable protections to workers against the interests of business. It's a very efficient (and often too efficient) at micromanaging, but in terms of the Commission and the other institutions it is increasingly bureaucratic and undemocratic.