New Hampshire Prediction Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

Huntsman won't win, but he'll do a lot better than expected.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I'm getting the feeling that Romney wins by something like 5-7% max, and Huntsman is crowned the "Real winner" by the media.

[BigSkyBob]

Romney 32%
Huntsman 25% [Democrats rat$*^&@%! the GOP mostly]

Paul 16% [Rat$*^&#@s go elsewhere]
Santorum 13%
Gingrich 11%
Perry/others 3%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm getting the feeling that Romney wins by something like 5-7% max, and Huntsman is crowned the "Real winner" by the media.

And the cluster-f*** ensues...

[Eraserhead]

You guys are setting yourself up for a disappointment. I don't think Huntsman is even going to beat Paul.

[Lief 🗽]

Eraserhead's probably right. I'm not really seeing any big Huntsman momentum. The best case scenario I think is Romney at 35% and Paul or Huntsman basically tied at around 20% each.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm thinking

Romney: 41%
Paul: 19%
Hunstman: 17%
Santorum:11%
Gingrich:10%
Others: 2%


..I would love to see Huntsman upsetting the apple-cart... but I'm not seeing anything to suggest it's going to happen.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Even if Jonny boy does better than expected in NH, how is that going to translate to support in South Carolina or Florida?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Even if Jonny boy does better than expected in NH, how is that going to translate to support in South Carolina or Florida?

In SC, it would boost the right, basically those people who are voting for Romney because of "inevitability" - it could help in Florida....

Mind you, that SC scenario is a little gift from Baby Jesus for Mitt.

[CultureKing]

Even if Jonny boy does better than expected in NH, how is that going to translate to support in South Carolina or Florida?

Well remember that Nevada also has a contest going on (although the media seems to not care).

[Eraserhead]

Nobody wants to predict the Democratic primary with me?

[Mehmentum]

31%  Jon Huntsman
30%  Mitt Romney
15%  Ron Paul
11%  Rick Santorum
11%  Newt Gingrich
1%    Buddy Roemer
1%    Others

I hope. But that requires doubling supporting in 24 hours.

Ask Hillary Clinton. Huntsman has really picked up momentum since yesterday, and today he's been blasting that "country first" spiel on the TV, and I sincerely think we shall be surprised tomorrow. I can tell you right now that Huntsman will not get below 25%. The polls won't-can't- tell you that, but wait and see.

I think he'll exeed everyone's expectations, but no way by that much.  He may be able to make it seem close, which will be enough to hurt Romney and keep Huntsman in the race.

[Tommy91]

Romney: 42%
Paul: 19%
Hunstman: 15%
Gingrich:10%
Santorum: 9%

[Simfan34]

Nobody wants to predict the Democratic primary with me?

97% Barack Obama
2%   Vermin Supreme
1%   Other

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Even if Jonny boy does better than expected in NH, how is that going to translate to support in South Carolina or Florida?

South Carolina won't happen, but he could easily make a dent in Florida if he spends a good amount of time there after a good day in NH. It's wide-open.

[Simfan34]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/2012/0109/Jon-Huntsman-banks-on-his-Reagan-moment-in-New-Hampshire-video

Huntsman has manged to energize the leaners. His people will be out in full force on Tuesday.

[California8429]

31%  Jon Huntsman
30%  Mitt Romney
15%  Ron Paul
11%  Rick Santorum
11%  Newt Gingrich
1%    Buddy Roemer
1%    Others

I hope. But that requires doubling supporting in 24 hours.

Ask Hillary Clinton. Huntsman has really picked up momentum since yesterday, and today he's been blasting that "country first" spiel on the TV, and I sincerely think we shall be surprised tomorrow. I can tell you right now that Huntsman will not get below 25%. The polls won't-can't- tell you that, but wait and see.

She was not down 20-25 points the day before NH though.

[redcommander]

Huntsman isn't winning tomorrow. Almost all of his support is coming from independents who voted for Obama four years ago. If it were a closed primary he would probably be fighting for 5% like in every other early state.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

88%     Obama
5%       that political historian dude
3%       Vermin Supreme
2%       boring candidates
2%       batsh*t candidates

[Shilly]

I'll sneak in here.


Romney: 37%
Paul: 21%
Huntsman: 19%
Gingrich: 11%
Santorum: 9%
Others: 2%
Perry: 1%

[Eraserhead]

Even if Jonny boy does better than expected in NH, how is that going to translate to support in South Carolina or Florida?

South Carolina won't happen, but he could easily make a dent in Florida if he spends a good amount of time there after a good day in NH. It's wide-open.

Unfortunately, Florida is pretty much all about $$$.

[redcommander]

Romney 36%
Huntsman 21%
Paul 18%
Santorum 12%
Gingrich 9%
Others 3%
Perry 1%

[BlueSwan]

1. Romney - 35%
2. Huntsman - 19%
3. Paul - 18%
4. Gingrich - 12%
5. Santorum - 11%
6. Perry - 5%

[Pyro]

Estimates I made from a couple days ago:
Repub Primary:
Romney: 31%
Huntsman: 21%
Paul: 19%
Gingrich: 13%
Santorum: 12%
Others: 3%
Perry: 1%

Dem Primary:
Obama: 97%
Richardson: 1%
Supreme: 1%
Others: 1%

[LastVoter]

Is media trying to start a Huntsman surge?