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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 40664 times)
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #250 on: April 08, 2012, 01:17:26 pm »
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Wow, just took the SlH Wahlomat. I knew the state CDU is that dreadful, but I didn't know how bad the Greens were.

My result
Left 82/102
SSW 72/102
SPD 71/102
Pirates 71/102
Greens 59/102
FW 57/102
NPD 45/102
CDU 31/102

I did not include joke parties (you can include 8 parties maximum).
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« Reply #251 on: April 08, 2012, 01:37:03 pm »
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For the first time since taking part in these Wahlomat things, I got the SPD & FW in 1st place and not the Left or the Greens:

85/108 SPD
85/108 FW
78/108 Left
78/108 Familie
76/108 Pirates
75/108 Greens
72/108 SSW
61/108 FDP
61/108 MUD
57/108 NPD
53/108 CDU
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Franzl
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« Reply #252 on: April 09, 2012, 05:54:36 am »
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Wahl-O-Mat result for me in Schleswig-Holstein:

1.) FDP 55/76
2.) CDU 54/76
3.) Piraten 43/76
4.) NPD 42/76
5.) SPD 39/76
6.) SSW 37/76
7.) Grüne 36/76
8.) Linke 31/76

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #253 on: April 10, 2012, 02:18:21 am »
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Double-shoccckkkker !

New Forsa poll shows the Pirates overtaking the Greens (which drop to a new low) and the FDP at 5% again, which is the threshold for entering Parliament:

36% CDSU
24% SPD
13% Pirates
11% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Others

http://www.rtl.de/cms/news/rtl-aktuell/piraten-ziehen-an-den-gruenen-vorbei-20b52-51ca-13-1085578.html
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Old Europe
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« Reply #254 on: April 10, 2012, 06:56:26 am »
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^^

Forsa poll. Having the Greens overtake the SPD (and almost the CDU too) is not sexy enough anymore, so the emergence of the Pirates creates new opportunities for spectacular polls.

Call me when another (more serious) pollster shows that too.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2012, 06:59:04 am by General Buck Turgidson »Logged
jeron
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« Reply #255 on: April 10, 2012, 04:03:56 pm »
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My Wahl-O-Mat result for Schleswig-Holstein:

Greens 55
FDP 50
SSW 46
SPD 44
Linke 42
Piraten 42
CDU 37
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« Reply #256 on: April 11, 2012, 01:26:01 pm »
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My result for the wahl-o-mat for Schleswig-Holstein:

LINKE 80
SPD 70
Piraten 67
SSW 62
Greens 59
NPD 45
FDP 42
CDU 32

This ist the worst result for the Greens ever, since i made the Wahl-o-mat. Maybe I should change my avatar into red ;-)
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« Reply #257 on: April 12, 2012, 05:11:03 pm »
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Schleswig-Holstein poll (Infratest dimap, 04/12)

CDU 32%
SPD 32%
Greens 12%
Pirates 11%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 3%

Pirate surge prevents SPD/Green majority. Looks like a Grand coalition to me.
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DL
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« Reply #258 on: April 12, 2012, 05:51:36 pm »
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Even on these numbers - an SPD/Green/SSW coalition could be formed - and still avoid having to work with those yucky Christian Democrats
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« Reply #259 on: April 12, 2012, 07:31:46 pm »
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The Pirates really are an absolute disease.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #260 on: April 12, 2012, 07:37:59 pm »
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The Pirates really are an absolute disease.

QFT.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

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Franzl
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« Reply #261 on: April 13, 2012, 04:01:44 am »
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The Pirates really are an absolute disease.

QFT.

I'm rather enjoying them, Antonio Wink
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« Reply #262 on: April 13, 2012, 04:20:19 am »
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Schleswig-Holstein poll (Infratest dimap, 04/12)

CDU 32%
SPD 32%
Greens 12%
Pirates 11%
SSW 4%
FDP 4%
Left 3%

Pirate surge prevents SPD/Green majority. Looks like a Grand coalition to me.

I'm really hoping for a SPD/Green/SSW coalition or minority government at this point. Anything but a grand coalition.
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« Reply #263 on: April 13, 2012, 04:26:47 am »
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The Pirates really are an absolute disease.
Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?
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« Reply #264 on: April 13, 2012, 04:36:58 am »
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The Pirates really are an absolute disease.
Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?

For the time being, "left-wingers" are probably refusing to work with them.

The SPD likes to play it safe. To enter a coalition with a newly formed party who is still trying to find positions on a lot of issues and hence is undergoing constant changes means taking a risk. On the other hand, entering a coalition with the CDU isn't much risky at all.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #265 on: April 13, 2012, 06:29:13 am »
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The Pirates really are an absolute disease.
Do they refuse to work with left-wingers?

For the time being, "left-wingers" are probably refusing to work with them.

The SPD likes to play it safe. To enter a coalition with a newly formed party who is still trying to find positions on a lot of issues and hence is undergoing constant changes means taking a risk. On the other hand, entering a coalition with the CDU isn't much risky at all.
Except the risk it poses to their soul as a social democratic party.  Oh well, they seem to have lost that years ago.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #266 on: April 13, 2012, 09:01:47 am »
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If I were a professional politician (God forbid) I wouldn't want to work with that kind of outfit either. A reluctance to work with Obvious Protest Party Is Obvious is not really something to criticise politicians for. But a reluctance to consider that there might be a reason (or even reasons) for such a hilarious blatant protest party to be polling at around a tenth of the electorate, well that would be a slightly different matter.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #267 on: April 13, 2012, 12:04:33 pm »
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The SPD is hard at work abolishing itself. The Greens and the Left are hard at work not filling the gap. The rightwing government is ideological and incompetent.
Be glad Pirate supporters aren't just staying at home.
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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Old Europe
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« Reply #268 on: April 14, 2012, 11:00:23 am »
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Northrhine-Westphalia (INFO GmbH, 04/14)

SPD 40%
CDU 29%
Pirates 11%
Greens 10%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

Pirate-mentum continues, FDP's Lindner-mentum starts to fade, SPD/Greens still have a majority thanks to the SPD's Kraft-mentum. Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #269 on: April 14, 2012, 11:04:40 am »
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Northrhine-Westphalia (INFO GmbH, 04/14)

SPD 40%
CDU 29%
Pirates 11%
Greens 10%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

Pirate-mentum continues, FDP's Lindner-mentum starts to fade, SPD/Greens still have a majority thanks to the SPD's Kraft-mentum. Wink

Or you can write just: "SPD/Greens still have a majority thanks to the SPD's Kraft"

Because Kraft means the person and the power ... Wink
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #270 on: April 14, 2012, 12:01:43 pm »
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That has the potential to be a deeply hilarious election.
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« Reply #271 on: April 14, 2012, 12:02:13 pm »
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I guess I would vote for pretty much any party that has a chance of just barely going over the 5% mark in NRW. Even if that means Linke. That's the only possible way to prevent Red-Green from happening, and even then it's almost impossible.
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« Reply #272 on: April 14, 2012, 01:32:12 pm »
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Is the FDP still starring into the abyss Grin?
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jeron
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« Reply #273 on: April 22, 2012, 05:17:02 am »
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Is the FDP still starring into the abyss Grin?

Yes. In the latest poll by FGW for NRW they are at 4%.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2012, 12:32:41 pm by jeron »Logged
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« Reply #274 on: April 27, 2012, 03:56:08 am »
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A couple of new polls:

Federal elections:

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 29%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 3%
Left: 6%
Pirates: 9%
Others: 4%

No clear majority. The next grand coalition is looming.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

NRW:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 38%
Greens: 10%
FDP: 5%
Left: 4%
Pirates: 9%
Others: ?

A slight majority for Red-Green, but the FDP might get in.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

SH

CDU: 31%
SPD: 31%
Greens: 12,5%
FDP: 7%
Left: 2,5%
Pirates: 9%
SSW: 4%
Others: 3%

VERY slight majority for SPD-Greens-SSW (47,5) compared to CDU-FDP-Pirates (47)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm
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Political Matrix

E: -7,74
S: -5,22
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