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| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 41038 times)
Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #275 on: April 27, 2012, 06:54:24 am »
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What's going on with FDP ?
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

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Insula Dei
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« Reply #276 on: April 27, 2012, 07:32:51 am »
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What's going on with FDP ?

They've been down so long it must have started to look like up to their potential voters.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #277 on: April 29, 2012, 12:02:15 pm »
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My NRW Wahlomat results:

96/112 Family Party
92/112 Animal Rights Party
90/112 ÖDP
90/112 The Party
87/112 Left
86/112 Free Voters
84/112 Greens
83/112 BIG
80/112 SPD
79/112 Pirates
76/112 FBI
64/112 NPD
56/112 pro NRW
51/112 FDP
50/112 CDU
44/112 AUF
43/112 Party of Reason

http://www1.wahl-o-mat.de/nrw2012/main_app.php
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #278 on: April 29, 2012, 12:54:23 pm »
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Ma NRW-Wahlomat result

SPD     77/94
LEFT    77/94
Green  70/94
Piraten 64/94
Free Voters  56/94
FDP     45/94
CDU    45/94
NPD    39/94
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coyolxauhqui
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« Reply #279 on: April 30, 2012, 03:50:31 am »
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Die Linke 71/94
Freie Waehler 68/94
SPD 67/94
B '90/Die Gruenen 65/94
Piraten 58/94
NPD 47/94
FDP 46/94
CDU 42/94

Huh.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #280 on: April 30, 2012, 05:08:34 am »
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New SH poll by Infratest dimap:

 32% SPD
 30% CDU
 13% Greens
   9% Pirates
   6% FDP
4.5% SSW
2.5% Left
   3% Others

FDP-surge !!!
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DL
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« Reply #281 on: April 30, 2012, 10:00:36 am »
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In a case like S-H where its very touch and go as to whether the math will be there or not for an SPD/Green/SSW government and if that does work it may that a Grand Coalition is the only possible government - suddenly it becomes critical which party is the largest since it would supply the Premier....if the polls show a near toss-up between the SPD and CDU for biggest party - could you start to have some "strategic voting" by supporters of smaller parties who might vote SPD to make sure that the SPD is the largest party and that its leader becomes premier no matter what?>
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #282 on: May 04, 2012, 02:06:22 am »
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In a case like S-H where its very touch and go as to whether the math will be there or not for an SPD/Green/SSW government and if that does work it may that a Grand Coalition is the only possible government - suddenly it becomes critical which party is the largest since it would supply the Premier....if the polls show a near toss-up between the SPD and CDU for biggest party - could you start to have some "strategic voting" by supporters of smaller parties who might vote SPD to make sure that the SPD is the largest party and that its leader becomes premier no matter what?>

I have the strong impression that the right-wing tends more to strategic voting. So the FDP could suffer. I don't believe that the Pirate voters would vote strategically.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #283 on: May 04, 2012, 02:11:15 am »
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A new poll for SH by GMS:

CDU: 32%
SPD: 33%
Greens: 12%
FDP: 6%
Left: 2%
Pirates: 8%
SSW: 4%
Others: 3%

A majority for SPD/Greens/SSW with 49% compared to 46% for CDU/FDP/Pirates.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm

And another one for Berlin by Forsa:

CDU: 23%
SPD: 28%
Greens: 16%
FDP: ?
Left: 10%
Pirates: 15%
Others: 8%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #284 on: May 04, 2012, 02:32:05 am »
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And a number of new polls for NRW:

PollsterCDUSPDGreensFDPLeftPiratesOthers
Forsa 2.5. 32%37%10%5%3%10%3%
YouGov 3.5.31%36%11%5%4%10%?
Infratest 3.5.30%38,5%11%6%4%7,5%3%
FGW 4.5.31%38%11%6%3%8%3%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

The latest polls show a stabilizing majority for Red-Green.
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Franzl
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« Reply #285 on: May 04, 2012, 03:17:54 am »
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Stabilizing majority? They may gez it, but I'd be rather worried if I were them.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #286 on: May 04, 2012, 04:18:54 am »
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Stabilizing majority? They may gez it, but I'd be rather worried if I were them.

Why is that?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #287 on: May 06, 2012, 11:07:09 am »
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ARD Exit Poll for SH:

30.5 CDU
29.5 SPD
14.0 Greens
  8.5 FDP
  8.0 Pirates
  4.5 SSW
  2.5 Left
  2.5 Others
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #288 on: May 06, 2012, 11:08:41 am »
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ZDF Exit Poll:

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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #289 on: May 06, 2012, 11:09:14 am »
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Schleswig-Holstein

ZDF 18:00

CDU 30,5
SPD 30,5
Greens 13,0
FDP  8,5
Piraten  8,5
SSW  4,5
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #290 on: May 06, 2012, 11:09:52 am »
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Meh, FDP (overpolling !)

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Franzl
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« Reply #291 on: May 06, 2012, 11:12:46 am »
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Interesting. Kubicki should never be underestimated Smiley
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #292 on: May 06, 2012, 11:16:16 am »
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Interesting. Kubicki should never be underestimated Smiley

Kubicki is a real fighter, but he made a campaign against the federal FDP.
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Franzl
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« Reply #293 on: May 06, 2012, 11:19:36 am »
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Interesting. Kubicki should never be underestimated Smiley

Kubicki is a real fighter, but he made a campaign against the federal FDP.

Sure, and that's the only way to survive. Wink
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #294 on: May 06, 2012, 11:57:46 am »
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30.5+13.0+4.5=48.0

30.5+8.5+8.0=47.0

Very close, but does anyone really believe the FDP is going to go up from here? Personally I'd be already amazed at them actually coming in at 8.5. (Dismayed perhaps, but amazed and somewhat satisfied the Pirates didn't come in 4rd.)
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #295 on: May 06, 2012, 12:05:42 pm »

What on earth did the FDP do to be able to win such a good result?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #296 on: May 06, 2012, 12:05:42 pm »
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Seats:

22 SPD
10 Greens
  3 SSW

22 CDU
  6 FDP
  6 Pirates

The "Danish Traffic Light" leads Black-Yellow by 35-34 seats.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #297 on: May 06, 2012, 12:09:11 pm »
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If the Pirates cause that 1 seat to flip that's one more joke that isn't funny anymore.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #298 on: May 06, 2012, 12:12:18 pm »
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What on earth did the FDP do to be able to win such a good result?

They have a good frontrunner with Kubicki.

Kubicki has a 54% approval rating in the ARD exit poll, compared to 18% for the guy who heads the federal FDP (what was his name ? Roessler ?) ...
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #299 on: May 06, 2012, 12:13:31 pm »
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What on earth did the FDP do to be able to win such a good result?

Wolfgang Kubicki, the leader of the S-H FDP, is very popular and in an poll 66% of the voters of the FDP said that the vote the FDP only because him.
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