2012 Elections in Germany

[ZuWo]

"Das können Sie alles senden!"

Horst Seehofer (CSU), Prime Minister of Bavaria, didn't mince his words and was surprisingly direct and sincere about the problems of the governing coalition and the defeat in NRW. He's probably not going to help the coalition, but he may have scored some points on a personal level.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS3qyx8drQk

(only in German)

[Old Europe]

"Das können Sie alles senden!"

Horst Seehofer (CSU), Prime Minister of Bavaria, didn't mince his words and was surprisingly direct and sincere about the problems of the governing coalition and the defeat in NRW. He's probably not going to help the coalition, but he may have scored some points on a personal level.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS3qyx8drQk

(only in German)

The interesting thing is that it wasn't part of the interview, but more of a private chat with the reporter after the interview. At the end, the reporter commented on how this talk was much more interesting than the interview itself which then led to Seehofer's: "You can air it all!"

[Peter the Lefty]

The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.

Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

[RedPrometheus]

The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.

Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

I know several former members of the Left who went (back) to the SPD but mostly on a local level. The problem is that in West Germany a lot of members are just crazy and in East Germany they are one of the three major parties. So the people who could go the SPD on an ideological basis are already very established and the members in West Germany are too radical to go to the SPD.

[Sibboleth]

Currently doing a map of direct seat winners (with the other stuff coming later). Anyways. Just stumbled across the result in Bonn I. LOL. That's all. LOL.

[Sibboleth]

[ingemann]

Why do SPD have such strong position in the north east?

[Sibboleth]

Why do SPD have such strong position in the north east?

Traditionally strong for the SPD going back since forever (during the Weimar Republic it was generally better turf for the SPD than the Ruhr), and that would have been because it was a Protestant ('rural') industrial area; the dominant industry was textiles. Protestantism in parts of that area (Lippe, anyway) is also non-Lutheran, which may have been a factor early on or something (or so someone claimed in a journal article that I half-read about two years ago while looking for something else).

[Old Europe]

The most interesting fallout from the NRW election is that Oskar Lafontaine is making a play for return to chairmanship of the Left Party now. His plans for a power-grab is meeting with resistance from the eastern state chapters of the party though.

Is it possible that he and the others in die Linke who split from the SPD might leave and rejoin to help push the SPD left?  Or would it look too much like political opportunism?  Or are the scars just too deep?

Doubt that the SPD would want to have him back. He "betrayed" the party once (or twice, if you count 1999) und you can't trust a traitor (although he'd probably say that the party betrayed him).

And I suppose Lafontaine wouldn't want to return to the SPD unless he becomes party chairman and/or chancellor-candidate for 2013. Not gonna happen.

[ingemann]

Why do SPD have such strong position in the north east?

Traditionally strong for the SPD going back since forever (during the Weimar Republic it was generally better turf for the SPD than the Ruhr), and that would have been because it was a Protestant ('rural') industrial area; the dominant industry was textiles. Protestantism in parts of that area (Lippe, anyway) is also non-Lutheran, which may have been a factor early on or something (or so someone claimed in a journal article that I half-read about two years ago while looking for something else).

Thanks,  I decided  to look on the historical maps, and in rural areas it seem that voting pattern follow the pre-1789 borders. The former secular principalities (which was mostly protestant) tend to vote SPD, while the former ecclessial principalities tend to vote CDU. The County of Lippe was Calvinist by the way, while Mindens and Ravensberg (the two other principalities in the corner) was was both Calvinist and Lutheran to my knowledge (as part of Brandenburg), but with a strong Lutheran dominance on the ground. 
I must admit that the fact that 140 year after the unification of Germany and almost 200 years after the complete unification of Nordrhine-Westphalen, the old religious patterns are still so important for how people vote.

[Old Europe]

Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen as minister for environment today.

How ironic, because he was too afraid to take any risks in the NRW election campaign he ultimately lost everything.

[Vasall des Midas]

Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen as minister for environment today.

How ironic, because he was too afraid to take any risks in the NRW election campaign he ultimately lost everything.

Hmmm, Horst?

"Ist er jetzt ein Umweltminister auf Bewährung?"
"Nein, das würde ich ihm nicht so zuordnen."

Indeed not.

[Californian Tony]

I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

[I left.]

I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

[Californian Tony]

I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

Good, I guess. This will give the left 30 seats in the Bundesrat and could complicate Merkel's job a bit.

[I left.]

I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

Good, I guess. This will give the left 30 seats in the Bundesrat and could complicate Merkel's job a bit.

Hate to disappoint you, but the SPD opposition on "European" topics is rather laughable

[Californian Tony]

I'm sorry if I ask a question which has probably already been answered, but do we know which coalition will rule Schleswig-Holstein ? Is a SPD-Green-SSW coalition workable or are they stuck with another Grand Coalition ?

The former almost certainly.

Good, I guess. This will give the left 30 seats in the Bundesrat and could complicate Merkel's job a bit.

Hate to disappoint you, but the SPD opposition on "European" topics is rather laughable

From what I've seen, I wouldn't be surprised if French coverage of German politics were awful and useless... But I recall to hear several times that the SPD was threatening to block ratification of the treaty if they didn't get measures for growth ?

[I left.]

From what I know they've made "demands" but stopped short of saying they would actually block if they didn't get what they wanted. Don't quote me on this though, I've not followed the SPD circus much recently. I doubt the SPD will do anything radical, though, they know perfectly well the vast majority of voters support Merkel's EU policies.

[DL]

What sort of coalition was finally formed in Saarland?

[RodPresident]

Great Coalition, as usual...

[Tender Branson]

Lower Saxony seems to be next for the takeover:

[The Mikado]

Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

[Tender Branson]

Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

CDU + Pirates =

[Californian Tony]

Lower Saxony seems to be next for the takeover:

When does it vote ?

[freek]

When does it vote ?

January 20, 2013