2012 Elections in Germany

[Californian Tony]

When does it vote ?

January 20, 2013

Meh...

[Vasall des Midas]

The last graph is entertaining.

[Old Europe]

Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

If they really pushed for it, the Pirate Party would break apart because of this. Hence CDU and Pirates wouldn't have a majority anymore anyway.

[Californian Tony]

From what I know they've made "demands" but stopped short of saying they would actually block if they didn't get what they wanted. Don't quote me on this though, I've not followed the SPD circus much recently. I doubt the SPD will do anything radical, though, they know perfectly well the vast majority of voters support Merkel's EU policies.

According to an italian newspaper Hollande, Ayrault and Gabriel have had discussions in order to adopt a common agenda regarding European growth policy and a modification of the treaty. I don't know if the SPD will go far enough, but something can certainly change.

[Peter the Lefty]

Possibly stupid question, but if the next election offered a possible majority for CDU-Pirates, would that be politically viable or something anyone relevant would even consider trying?

If they really pushed for it, the Pirate Party would break apart because of this. Hence CDU and Pirates wouldn't have a majority anymore anyway.

Lol well they have definined themselves as a "social liberal" party.  If they joined the CDU in a coalition, it seems like they'd soon become a slightly more eccentric and information/Internet savvy German reincarnation of the LibDems.  Lol.  But the idea of Pirates sitting in a cabinet with the hard-nosed conservatives of the CDU does sound hilarious. 

Just imagine the awkwardness of the official cabinet photo. 

[Old Europe]

There's coming some criticism from within the CDU as well as the media on how quickly Angela Merkel has fired Norbert Röttgen. For starters, it was unprecedented that a federal minister gets dismissed because he lost a state election. Some where also surprised how easily Merkel was willing to stab Röttgen in the back, considering he had been one of her closest political allies within the CDU up until a few weeks ago.

So there's some concern that Angela Merkel turns into the Darth Vader of German politics: Everyone who fails her or is not of use to her anymore gets quickly disposed of (so far it had only happened to people who stood in her way).

[Vasall des Midas]

It is presumed something ugly happened behind the scenes here.
Also, I suppose Merkel is frightened and angry not only because of BRW but because of France and Greece as well. (I would love to claim she's "coming apart at the seams", but that would be wishful thinking.)

[ZuWo]

I was surprised when I heard the news that Merkel fired Röttgen. I always had the impression that Merkel likes to be surrounded by rather weak ministers and party officials who don't pose any threat to her (and Röttgen was definitely weak and powerless after the NRW election), so I think it is plausible that something really bad happened between the two. Or Seehofer threatened that the CSU would leave the coalition if Röttgen remains in office, who knows.

[Tender Branson]

NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

[Californian Tony]

NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ?

[I left.]

NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ?

They're national polls that were done after the NRW election.

[Tender Branson]

NRW fallout polls by ARD and ZDF (but conducted before Röttgen got kicked out):

34.0% CDU/CSU
30.0% SPD
13.0% Greens
10.0% Pirates
  5.0% Left
  4.5% FDP
  3.5% Others

Probably a Grand Coalition. And lol @ the Left.

Why are they polling after the election happened ?

They're national polls that were done after the NRW election.

Yepp. These are 2 separate polls by ARD and ZDF and I averaged them because they are not that far apart.

[Tender Branson]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

[I left.]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any Western state (i.e. real Germany ) that would not throw out the Left right now? Possibly Hamburg? Saarland excluded, obviously.

[Tender Branson]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any Western state (i.e. real Germany ) that would not throw out the Left right now? Possibly Hamburg? Saarland excluded, obviously.

I think they would even fail in Hamburg and Bremen right now, leaving only the Saarland.

In Bavaria, the Left isn't even included in the polls anymore ...

[Lasitten]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any other explanation than the rise of Pirates to explain the downfall of Linke?

[I left.]

In Western Germany, the Linke has gone from 8% on Election Day 2009 to 3% now.

In Eastern Germany it went from 29% to 15% now.

Linke and Pirates have basically switched sides now, except in the East, where both are around 15% now.

Is there any other explanation than the rise of Pirates to explain the downfall of Linke?

Several.

The fact that the grand coalition is gone. The fact that the Left has been in an internal civil war for a while. The fact that they aren't seen as credible opposition to black-yellow.

[Californian Tony]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

[ZuWo]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left). On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.

[I left.]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I have to agree with what ZuWo just said

[Peter the Lefty]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left). On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.

An actual left-alternative.  The SPD is clearly a mainly centrist party, and should be seen as such until it agrees that the Agenda 2010 program was wrong, and embraces true social democracy.  And it needs to throw out those neo-liberal crooks (Steinmeier, Steinbruck, Garrelt Duin, Johannes Kahrs, and all those other Seeheimer Kreis phonies, with the possible exception of Sigmar Gabriel.)  And they also need to stop acting so eager to jump into bed with the CDU.  Then they can actually be on the left.  That's what Antonio means by "left alternative" (I think). 

[Californian Tony]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I have to agree with what ZuWo just said

Personally, it made me roll eyes... But I guess we have to agree to disagree...

[Vasall des Midas]

So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left).

And the Pirates. Though note that lack of choice was not what the complaint was about. The issue is entirely with the quality of the choices.

On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.

That's just wrong. It's understandable that people might think so, but it's wrong. Unless PvdV and such are considered "serious" and "democratic", and even then it's exceedingly iffy - the CDU esp. locally has the populist but by self-assessment respectable right pretty well covered, much better than the CDA or than the French right used to have. Better than the Tories in most parts, too, though things vary quite a bit between parts of Britain on that account.
 And where occasionally it doesn't, you get some local party led by a CDU or FDP renegade, either with no intention towards regional (let alone national) politics, or with at least one glorious fail attempt under his belt already.

[freefair]

There should be another left wing federal party in German politics, however the Left will have to die and be replaced by a party whose heretical is fully democratic and constitutional. Maybe they should just call themselves the  Labour Party? They ought to be Populist to provide a contrast with the Greens and Pirates.
Also, I should point out the UKIP style gap between the CDU and NDP is already filled by Die Republikaner, who could be more successful.

[Vasall des Midas]

That party is effectively dead. Though not quite - partly because (though the REPs are themselves too disreputable to fill that gap) the NPD is that far-out.
The REPs were of course founded with the intention of being such a party, back in the 80s. Hence the name and all. Didn't help that the man who founded it was thrown out of the CSU and his state tv job because of his too obvious WaffenSS nostalgia...