2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 113990 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #575 on: October 07, 2012, 11:55:40 AM »

Looks like the Green Fritz Kuhn wins the first round of the Stuttgart mayoral election with 36% ...

http://wahlen1.stuttgart.de/wahlen/wahl_h/oberbuergermeisterwahl/2012/obw2012_kandidaten.html

Interesting fact: Stuttgart only had 3 (!!!) mayors so far since WW2 ended (67 years ago).
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Zanas
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« Reply #576 on: October 08, 2012, 08:09:21 AM »

Glad to see finally the Pirates are beneath the threshold to enter Parliament. It can be fun to play an episode of My Little Pony in the Parliament of Berlin Land (genuine !), but the Bundestag is another thing... Also, a number of voters getting away from the Pirates come back to Die Linke (albeit maybe more were from the Greens or SPD).
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Franzl
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« Reply #577 on: October 08, 2012, 08:13:00 AM »

Glad to see finally the Pirates are beneath the threshold to enter Parliament. It can be fun to play an episode of My Little Pony in the Parliament of Berlin Land (genuine !), but the Bundestag is another thing... Also, a number of voters getting away from the Pirates come back to Die Linke (albeit maybe more were from the Greens or SPD).

I would be quite surprised if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #578 on: October 08, 2012, 08:16:30 AM »

Glad to see finally the Pirates are beneath the threshold to enter Parliament. It can be fun to play an episode of My Little Pony in the Parliament of Berlin Land (genuine !), but the Bundestag is another thing... Also, a number of voters getting away from the Pirates come back to Die Linke (albeit maybe more were from the Greens or SPD).

I would be quite surprised if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.

I'm not surprised. I always expected them to go the same way as the Swedish Pirate Party. Do really well in one non-general election and then fade.
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DL
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« Reply #579 on: October 08, 2012, 08:57:16 AM »

Which party benefits most from the decline of the Pirates? In other words where are their former supporters migrating to?
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Franzl
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« Reply #580 on: October 08, 2012, 09:14:32 AM »

Which party benefits most from the decline of the Pirates? In other words where are their former supporters migrating to?

That depends a good deal on where. Non-voters would be my best guess, on average. But from other parties....Greens I'd say. Perhaps the Left in certain locations.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #581 on: October 08, 2012, 11:27:37 AM »

There's a certain pattern to their support that can be seen in different cities.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #582 on: October 08, 2012, 01:01:32 PM »

There's a certain pattern to their support that can be seen in different cities.
Two patterns. Greens' strongholds (and perhaps especially "old" core Greens' strongholds - or pre-05 West German PDS strongholds as these are the same areas. Grin ) and a generalized pattern of protest voting, predominantly relatively working class as these things always are, but probably also - this obviously doesn't show up in precinct results - predominantly very young.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #583 on: October 14, 2012, 05:09:42 AM »

The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #584 on: October 14, 2012, 05:13:45 AM »

The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

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Franzl
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« Reply #585 on: October 14, 2012, 05:15:21 AM »

The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

CSU absolute majority again? Wow.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #586 on: October 14, 2012, 05:17:39 AM »

The CSU is close to 50% again in Bavaria, says a new Emnid poll for "Focus":

48% CSU
21% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  5% Others

Seehofer (CSU) defeats Ude (SPD) by 51-35 in the PM direct vote.

CSU absolute majority again? Wow.

Back to normal. It will be even clearer if the Pirates consistently drop below the 5% barrier and the FDP also struggles with that threshold.
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Franzl
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« Reply #587 on: October 14, 2012, 05:26:33 AM »

I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #588 on: October 16, 2012, 07:06:14 PM »

I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...
They were around 16% before he was announced as their leading-candidate for the election, if I remember correctly.  Lmao at the Texas of Germany.
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Franzl
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« Reply #589 on: October 16, 2012, 07:19:06 PM »

I would vote SPD in Bayern this election, actually. Surprised Ude hasn't at least improved their numbers a tad...
They were around 16% before he was announced as their leading-candidate for the election, if I remember correctly.  Lmao at the Texas of Germany.

Not really comparable as Bayern ranks highly in most indicators. Education, income, quality of life, etc. Smiley
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Franzl
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« Reply #590 on: October 23, 2012, 07:20:24 AM »

Greens won the Stuttgart mayoral run-off election with 52.9% against a CDU-supported independent on Sunday.
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Franzl
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« Reply #591 on: October 23, 2012, 07:32:35 AM »

New federal Bundestag poll from Emnid (percentages indicate gain or loss to last election):

CDU/CSU: 38% (+4)
SPD: 29% (+6)
Greens: 12% (+1)
Left: 7% (-5)
Pirates: 6% (+4)
-------------------
FDP: 4% (-11)

Government CDU/CSU + FDP (not represented): 38%
Opposition: 54%

Red-Green: 41%
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #592 on: October 23, 2012, 01:18:47 PM »

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Left's Niko Fostiropoulos has by far the best ground game in the upcoming Karlsruhe mayoral election. He will almost certainly do awfully, regardless.
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Franzl
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« Reply #593 on: October 30, 2012, 05:55:36 AM »

New state level poll from Berlin (Forsa):

CDU 27% (+4)
SPD 26% (-2)
Grüne 19% (+1)
Linke 10 (-2)
Piraten 10 (+1)

FDP apparently listed under "others". (I imagine they're not over 1-2% or so....so yeah.)
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #594 on: November 08, 2012, 05:44:58 AM »

Results for the Green primary will be announced the day after tomorrow btw.

Turnout: 61.64%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #595 on: November 09, 2012, 01:58:52 AM »

CDU/CSU breaks 40% for the first time federally in 5 years in a new Infratest dimap poll:

40% CDU/CSU
30% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  2% Others

A new Lower-Saxony poll by Infratest dimap also has the CDU ahead in the next state elections on Jan. 20, 2013:

41% CDU
34% SPD
13% Greens
  3% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

47-41 majority for SPD/Greens over CDU though, because all other parties are below the 5%.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #596 on: November 09, 2012, 06:50:28 AM »

Merkel is quite unstoppable right now.

Her approval rating is at 68%, which is the highest of all politicians:



She beats Steinbrück in a direct vote for Chancellor by wide margins:



Merkel is seen as the "stronger leader" by a 62-22 margin.

Merkel leads in "having more support in the own party" by 55-24.

Merkel is seen more "likeable" by 51-30 and "believeable" by 47-25.

Merkel leads "can colve the Euro-crisis" by 42-25.

Steinbrück leads "has more economic knowledge" by 38-33.

Steinbrück leads "does more for social issues" by 35-31.



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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #597 on: November 10, 2012, 05:17:39 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2012, 05:24:59 AM by Mitt Romney is the new Ronald Reagan »

Well, the Green primary led to an somewhat unexpected result.

Jürgen Trittin 71.9%
Katrin Göring-Eckardt 47.3%
Renate Künast 38.6%
Claudia Roth 26.2%

(Since everybody had two votes for two top posts the numbers have to add up to 200% or something? Don't know how this was counted exactly.)

Trittin and Göring-Eckardt are therefore elected lead nominees for the 2013 Bundestag election. While Trittin was widely considered the frontrunner, Göring-Eckardt had the role of an underdog and certainly wouldn't have become lead nominee through the usual backroom deals. She wasn't even the dark horse in that race. If anything, Claudia Roth was the other frontrunner (at least that's the way she saw herself) with Künast being considered the dark horse candidate. Question is now whether Roth steps down as party chairwoman, because this wasn't really a strong vote of confidence from the party's base.

So... LOL @ Roth/Künast
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #598 on: November 10, 2012, 04:30:22 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2012, 04:33:20 PM by RedPrometheus »

Well I've spent the whole day at the SPD's party convention in Lower Saxony. Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

Nevertheless none of the shadow cabinet members said anything revolutionary so the mood seems to not cause any damage before the election.

Furthermore the mood before and during Steinbrück's speech wasn't great so the party certainly has some problems with him.
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Hifly
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« Reply #599 on: November 10, 2012, 05:25:25 PM »

Everyone is extremely confident of the SPD winning the election so we will have to see wether that's correct.

In a room filled with left wing party hacks I wouldn't be surprised. The reality is that it's looking very unlikely.
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