2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 114028 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #625 on: November 20, 2012, 01:14:40 PM »

It would be +5 from 2009, but because of the FDP collapse they'll be in Grand Coalition like Merkel's first term.
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jaichind
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« Reply #626 on: November 20, 2012, 11:57:48 PM »

The results of the next election seems preordained. 
CDU/CSU > SPD
CDU/CSU+FDP < SPD+Greens+Left+Pirates
SDP+Greens < CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates

Only real question is will FPD or Pirates make it past 5% but the answer to that question seems irrelevent to the makeup of the next government.

So there will be a grand coalition led by CDU/CSU with SPD as junior partners.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #627 on: November 21, 2012, 12:50:35 AM »

The results of the next election seems preordained. 
CDU/CSU > SPD
CDU/CSU+FDP < SPD+Greens+Left+Pirates
SDP+Greens < CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates

Only real question is will FPD or Pirates make it past 5% but the answer to that question seems irrelevent to the makeup of the next government.

So there will be a grand coalition led by CDU/CSU with SPD as junior partners.

You forgot CDU/CSU/Greens, which is considered right now in Germany as a "serious" option.

CDU/CSU+FDP+Left+Pirates on the other hand is totally unlikely.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #628 on: November 21, 2012, 01:28:35 AM »

New Bayern poll by GMS:

48% CSU
20% SPD
10% Greens
  8% FW
  5% FDP
  4% Pirates
  2% Left
  3% Others

Absolute majority for CSU.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #629 on: November 21, 2012, 07:34:29 AM »

New Karlsruhe/Mayor Poll from Cobus (500 eligible voters)

46,6% Frank Mentrup (SPD/Grünen/KAL/Piraten)
42,8% Ingo Wellenreuther (CDU)
05,1% Niko Fostiropoulos (Linke)
04,9% Friedemann Kalmbach (GfK)
00,6% Jürgen Wenzel (Freie Wähler)
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #630 on: November 21, 2012, 04:39:10 PM »

Would 38% be a good polling rate for the CDU (I'm not very knowledgeable about German politics Sad)

As has already been mentioned, you really need to look at their reliable partner to deem whether it's good. High thirties is a pretty good figure for the CDU/CSU in recent times, but when mentioned alongside a complete collapse of the FDP, it starts to look less rosy. 42% for the Right would be one of their weakest showings in decades, comparable to their result in '98 (Schroder's victory).
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Franzl
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« Reply #631 on: November 23, 2012, 10:28:18 AM »

New Infratest Dimap Bundestag opinion poll:

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 30%
Grüne 14%
Linke 6%
----------------
Piraten 4%
FDP 4%
others 2%


Government: CDU/CSU (40) + FDP (0) = 40%
Opposition: SPD (30) + Grüne (14) + Linke (6) = 50%

Or counting those parties under 5%: Government 44, Opposition 56 (as a share of the pure vote)



Also interesting, they show both West and East Germany:

West:

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 31%
Grüne 15%
Piraten 4%
FDP 4%
Linke 3%
others 2%

East:
CDU 37%
SPD 26%
Linke 17%
Grüne 10%
Piraten 4%
FDP 3%
others 3%
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Zanas
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« Reply #632 on: November 23, 2012, 11:16:31 AM »

I would never have expected to see Pirates at the same rate in East and West Germany ! Did they split Berlin as it used to be in that poll ?
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Kitteh
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« Reply #633 on: November 23, 2012, 02:00:38 PM »

New Infratest Dimap Bundestag opinion poll:

Opposition: SPD (30) + Grüne (14) + Linke (6) = 50%


If only this was a possible coalition *deep sigh*.
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #634 on: November 24, 2012, 10:07:35 AM »

Ah geez.  This is depressing.  Dear God, how I hope Merkel won't be a 4-termer.  
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #635 on: November 24, 2012, 12:34:06 PM »

I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.
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Franzl
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« Reply #636 on: November 24, 2012, 12:35:14 PM »

I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Which was....and will be.....a rather good government, actually.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #637 on: November 24, 2012, 01:09:45 PM »

I'm guessing policy won't change that much either, just the names and faces.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #638 on: November 24, 2012, 07:32:18 PM »

I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Steinbrück wasn't vice-chancellor.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #639 on: November 24, 2012, 11:29:19 PM »

God, the German party system is really broken.
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Franzl
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« Reply #640 on: November 25, 2012, 05:44:28 AM »


All paths lead to Merkel!

The sooner you admit that...... Wink
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Franzl
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« Reply #641 on: November 25, 2012, 05:45:14 AM »

I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Steinbrück wasn't vice-chancellor.

Yeah, it was the other stone.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #642 on: November 25, 2012, 06:01:40 AM »

I'm guessing Steinbruck will hold the jobs he had in Merkel's first term: finance minister and vice-chancellor.

Steinbrück wasn't vice-chancellor.

Yeah, it was the other stone.

For the latter half of the grand coalition anway.
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Franzl
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« Reply #643 on: November 25, 2012, 06:35:37 AM »

New Bundestag poll from Emnid:

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 29%
Grüne 15%
Linke 7%

FDP 4%
Piraten 4%
others 3%


Among those parties that would make it in: Government 38, Opposition 51

Among all: Government 42, Opposition 58



Coalitions with a majority:

CDU/CSU-Greens
SPD-Greens-Left
CDU/CSU-SPD
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #644 on: November 25, 2012, 07:54:27 AM »

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?
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Franzl
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« Reply #645 on: November 25, 2012, 08:14:21 AM »

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.
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DL
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« Reply #646 on: November 25, 2012, 01:39:29 PM »

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.

Though in this case its abundantly clear that it doesn't really matter if the FDP gets over or under the 5% barrier - they will have no where near enough seats to recreate the CDU-FDP coalition so they won't be part of the game. What possible incentive is there for a CDU voter to cast a strategic vote for the FDP when it doesn't really matter?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #647 on: November 25, 2012, 02:13:32 PM »

What possible incentive was there to vote Green instead of SPD in 2009? Many millions of people vote kinda-sorta tactical in Germany, but not exactly in an entirely rational way. Of course, that's because the voting system only encourages some possible ways of voting tactically while proscribing others that people might actually be more interested in.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #648 on: November 25, 2012, 05:56:33 PM »

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.

Though in this case its abundantly clear that it doesn't really matter if the FDP gets over or under the 5% barrier - they will have no where near enough seats to recreate the CDU-FDP coalition so they won't be part of the game. What possible incentive is there for a CDU voter to cast a strategic vote for the FDP when it doesn't really matter?

I'm not talking CDU voters. FDP got around 14% in the last election and is polling around 4% right now. Some of the 10% of the electorate could probably be convinced to vote FDP again if they think that their vote boots the FDP out of the Bundestag entirely instead of just making them lose seats.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #649 on: November 26, 2012, 03:07:45 PM »

Most of these people are CDU voters. (Sort of.)
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