2012 Elections in Germany
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:17:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2012 Elections in Germany
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28 29
Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 114111 times)
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #650 on: November 26, 2012, 04:56:41 PM »

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #651 on: November 26, 2012, 06:07:15 PM »

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #652 on: November 26, 2012, 06:08:28 PM »

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?

They haven't got that much left to lose...
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #653 on: November 27, 2012, 12:43:40 AM »

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?
Wouldn't Linke fall to 3-4%(below threshold) because most of their voters are protest votes against SPD?
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #654 on: November 27, 2012, 07:24:32 AM »

In the mean time, Rot-Rot-Grün still has a virtual majority...

And is still not an option...


Sigh... Damn SPD.

Wouldn't a good chunk of SPD's vote start jumping ship if SPD & Linke made friends?
Wouldn't Linke fall to 3-4%(below threshold) because most of their voters are protest votes against SPD?

Mostly. Linke was getting around 5% consistently until Schroder got turfed. They got 11% in the last election so I'd guess about 1/2 of their support would find a protest vote somewhere.
Logged
RedPrometheus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #655 on: November 27, 2012, 08:21:56 AM »

It will hurt both parties probably in the short run. But I think after the next federal election the leaders of both parties will have to look at a strategic perspective of working together.
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #656 on: November 27, 2012, 08:29:39 PM »

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #657 on: November 27, 2012, 08:52:55 PM »

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?
Logged
Kitteh
drj101
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,436
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #658 on: November 27, 2012, 08:56:35 PM »

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?
No, because the 99.9% of people who aren't political junkies who watch this like a sport don't like endless snap elections. Doing that would just hurt the SPD. 

Also the CDU isn't "dying", they're doing pretty well in the polls and Merkel has a strong approval rating.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #659 on: November 27, 2012, 08:58:02 PM »

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.
Logged
LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,322
Thailand


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #660 on: November 27, 2012, 09:18:39 PM »

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.
You mean 40%?
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #661 on: November 27, 2012, 09:46:46 PM »

Why after the next election? You'd think that if there's anything to spur some conciliation it would be to avoid the depressing eventuality of another grand coalition, that is essentially propping up the Right on a decline. At the last election the SPD received their worst result following a grand coalition, coupled with the Greens and the Left gaining their best results, so grand coalitions aren't exactly risk-averse regards to loss of support, either.
Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?

If an election were held today, CDU would pick up about 4% of the vote.
You mean 40%?

I meant 4% more than they got last time.
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #662 on: November 28, 2012, 08:14:51 AM »
« Edited: November 28, 2012, 08:18:26 AM by Leftbehind »

When I said Right on the decline, I was talking about the combined right - the CDU/CSU-FDP is polling at the lowest figures in decades. Obviously the CDU has benefited in support from the FDP collapse - just as you'd expect the SPD to if the Greens were to do the same - but as their go-to coalition partners, it's clearly a setback - or it would be without the assured propping up by the SPD.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?
Absolutely anything would be better for the SPD than propping up the CDU, but it won't stop them.
Logged
DC Al Fine
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #663 on: November 28, 2012, 09:30:37 AM »

When I said Right on the decline, I was talking about the combined right - the CDU/CSU-FDP is polling at the lowest figures in decades. Obviously the CDU has benefited in support from the FDP collapse - just as you'd expect the SPD to if the Greens were to do the same - but as their go-to coalition partners, it's clearly a setback - or it would be without the assured propping up by the SPD.

Wouldn't it be better for SPD to keep calling snap elections untl the voters vote a certain way, rather than prop up dying CDU?
Absolutely anything would be better for the SPD than propping up the CDU, but it won't stop them.

The voters don't take very kindly to multiple snap elections.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #664 on: November 28, 2012, 09:33:30 AM »

The thing is, it's not really so long ago that the product now known as Die Linke was marked as SED. It complicates matters and also acts as an excellent excuse for not touching with a bargepole of proverbial length. Then, of course, you have to remember that many of said party's members who were not in the SED (or from that political tradition) are defectors from the SPD, and we all know what defection-linked psychodrama can be like. Oh, and the two parties are in direct competition for votes. Whether these are legit reasons or not isn't really relevant...
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #665 on: November 28, 2012, 09:52:51 AM »

I understand the difficulties and don't expect a SPD-Left coalition in the foreseeable future (obviously with Greens included in that) but I'll argue for it nonetheless given how the current situation enormously helps the Right. 

The voters don't take very kindly to multiple snap elections.
Voters don't take very kindly to their party propping up their ideological opposite, either.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #666 on: November 28, 2012, 10:04:25 AM »

SPD and CDU aren't exactly ideological opposites.
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #667 on: November 28, 2012, 10:23:35 AM »

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #668 on: November 28, 2012, 10:26:05 AM »

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #669 on: November 28, 2012, 10:28:07 AM »

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #670 on: November 28, 2012, 10:36:39 AM »

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.

I guess my original wording comes from the fact I'm far from convinced the average Labour or Democrat voter is happy with the alignment. Obviously the SPD voter has more places to go to register that, but still:

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.

Yeah, but that would have two thirds of German voters (which is what the CDU/SPD are currently polling) happy with that - I'd find it incredible if they were all centrists.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,960
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #671 on: November 28, 2012, 04:07:58 PM »

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Yeah, you're right. Just noting that the German consensus between center-left and center-right is pretty close together in the grand scheme of things. Compare Democrats-Republicans...or Torys-Labour.

I guess the fact that the CDU isn't nearly as insane as the Republicans helps a lot. Tongue The SPD, on the other hand, is only barely to the left of Democrats.
Logged
Zanas
Zanas46
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,947
France


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #672 on: November 29, 2012, 03:55:42 PM »

I'm seriously beginning to wonder if it's only in France where we have some kind of left and right that won't event hink of making a "grand coalition". It's like a plague for Nate's sake !

You might as well scrap governments and have all managed by administrations rather than have grand coalitions. These things are the cancer of the political landscape.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,731
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #673 on: November 29, 2012, 08:45:28 PM »

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one. 

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.

I would assume that a centrist voter who liked the grand coalition would vote CDU rather than SPD.
Logged
mubar
Rookie
**
Posts: 75
Finland


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #674 on: November 30, 2012, 07:11:40 AM »

True, but they were punished in the 2009 for the grand coalition, and I doubt their voters are in it for another one.  

Depends of the voter. The socialist, left-leaning voter was angry, but the centrist one probably liked the CDU-SPD government.

I would assume that a centrist voter who liked the grand coalition would vote CDU rather than SPD.

But that depends on so many factors, and in any given election there are going to be a lot of swing voters between CDU and SPD. Furthermore, if the situation stays like this, with grand coalition seemingly inevitable and Union parties with a comfortable marging of 6-12 points over SPD, some more tactically minded centrist voters could even decide to strengthen SPD instead of Union.

Newest poll from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen shows CDU/CSU at 38%, SPD 29%, Greens 14% and Linke 7%, while FDP, Pirates and all others each have 4%. So SPD-Greens would have no majority with 43 against 45, and grand coalition again emerges as the only possibility.

What I find remarkable is that currently all six national polling institutes have both FDP and Pirates at 4%, each and every of them. Guess that kind of agreement between all institutes has to represent both parties' actual support well.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 22 23 24 25 26 [27] 28 29  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 11 queries.