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| | |-+  2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 102359 times)
Franzl
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« Reply #700 on: December 07, 2012, 06:58:13 pm »
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I would imagine that if Red-Green is a possibility the SPD will choose that over a grand coalition, no? At least for the fact that Steinbruek would get to be chancellor.

Yes, but it's only really realistic if the FDP stays out...which I still seriously doubt.
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Franzl
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« Reply #701 on: December 12, 2012, 03:19:59 pm »
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New Bundestag polls:

Emnid 09.12.2012 (Federal)

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green with no majority. (42-47)



Forsa 12.12.2012 (Federal):

CDU/CSU 38
SPD 27
Grüne 14
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4

SPD/Green with no majority. (41-46)
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DL
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« Reply #702 on: December 13, 2012, 08:41:38 am »
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I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?
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Franzl
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« Reply #703 on: December 13, 2012, 12:04:48 pm »
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I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?

I doubt the two developments have anything to do with each other. I can imagine Pirates supporting basically any other party more than the CDU.
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« Reply #704 on: December 13, 2012, 12:23:02 pm »
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I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?

I doubt the two developments have anything to do with each other. I can imagine Pirates supporting basically any other party more than the CDU.

Well, many people supported the Pirates because it was a very popular thing to do at the time (you could say a "fad"). And Angela Merkel is popular too!

Some of the more apolitical swing voters tend to support the party who gets the greatest news coverage. The Pirates certainly attracted many people from that group.
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Franzl
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« Reply #705 on: December 14, 2012, 11:13:17 am »
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FGW/ZDF (Federal election), 14.12.2012

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 30
Grüne 13
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3


SPD/Grüne without a majority (43-47).
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #706 on: December 14, 2012, 12:02:31 pm »
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40% is excellent in an MMP system, yes?
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Franzl
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« Reply #707 on: December 14, 2012, 12:08:05 pm »
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Not an excellent result, historically at least.

But it'd still be their strongest showing since 1994. And rather impressive for modern times.
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« Reply #708 on: December 14, 2012, 08:43:11 pm »
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It's rather less impressive when they're the only receptacle for Rightist votes now the FDP won't make it back into parliament. I'd like to see some seat projections.
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« Reply #709 on: December 14, 2012, 08:44:07 pm »
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Sadly, I'm willing to bet that the FDP will eventually make it.
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« Reply #710 on: December 14, 2012, 08:51:22 pm »
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You'd think though that any eventual rise would come from the CDU/CSU VI anyway.
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Franzl
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« Reply #711 on: December 15, 2012, 06:37:48 am »
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Sadly, I'm willing to bet that the FDP will eventually make it.

They'll make it. Tactical votes will save them.
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« Reply #712 on: December 15, 2012, 06:36:14 pm »
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What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition") - anyways you sl;ice it there will be a CDU/SPD "grand coalition" and the only question mark is in what proportion the CDU and SPD each get cabinet portfolios.
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Franzl
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« Reply #713 on: December 15, 2012, 06:48:49 pm »
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What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition") - anyways you sl;ice it there will be a CDU/SPD "grand coalition" and the only question mark is in what proportion the CDU and SPD each get cabinet portfolios.

You're right, but I'm not sure the average politically uninterested voter knows and understands this. I think a lot of voters think of "CDU/FDP" as their desired government and....enough.....will vote tactically. We're only talking about enough to get them from 4 to 5%.

Not to mention that a vote for the FDP also makes an SPD/Green majority virtually impossible. So if you do know something about the current political situation and you want the CDU in government, that could make sense, in order to get a grand coalition rather than the left-wing majority.

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« Reply #714 on: December 15, 2012, 07:07:43 pm »
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I suppose that another by-product of the FDP slipping back into parliament is it would make it less likely that a CDU/Green coalition could be formed...if that is your top priority...but realistically just about the only way Germany gets a red/green coalition is it the FDP, the Pirates AND the Linke fail to clear the 5% hurdle!
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Franzl
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« Reply #715 on: December 15, 2012, 07:15:34 pm »
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I suppose that another by-product of the FDP slipping back into parliament is it would make it less likely that a CDU/Green coalition could be formed...if that is your top priority...but realistically just about the only way Germany gets a red/green coalition is it the FDP, the Pirates AND the Linke fail to clear the 5% hurdle!

Red/Green is only down by 3-5% even with Linke in. Not a likely scenario, but not impossible.
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« Reply #716 on: December 16, 2012, 06:57:18 am »
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What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition")
The correct term is Tigerente.
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« Reply #717 on: December 16, 2012, 08:28:11 am »
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I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.
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politicus
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« Reply #718 on: December 16, 2012, 08:46:18 am »
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Well, the left side (SPD, Greens, Linke) still leads the right side (CDU, FDP) pretty clearly.
Only the paria status of Die Linke in German politics and the existence of the "youth populist"/pseudo-libertarian Pirates blurs the picture.
 
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Franzl
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« Reply #719 on: December 16, 2012, 08:48:13 am »
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Well, the left side (SPD, Greens, Linke) still leads the right side (CDU, FDP) pretty clearly.
Only the paria status of Die Linke in German politics and the existence of the "youth populist"/pseudo-libertarian Pirates blurs the picture.
 

I would be shocked if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.
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« Reply #720 on: December 16, 2012, 11:09:38 am »
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I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.

It's all about Merkel.
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politicus
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« Reply #721 on: December 16, 2012, 12:20:03 pm »
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Well, the left side (SPD, Greens, Linke) still leads the right side (CDU, FDP) pretty clearly.
Only the paria status of Die Linke in German politics and the existence of the "youth populist"/pseudo-libertarian Pirates blurs the picture.
I would be shocked if the Pirates made it into the Bundestag at this point.
Me too, but they are still blurring the polls Wink
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« Reply #722 on: December 16, 2012, 04:58:02 pm »
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Is there any chance Linke-supporters could be convinced to support SDP or the Greens in order to stop a Grand Coalition?
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« Reply #723 on: December 17, 2012, 06:25:01 am »
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I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.

Maybe because it's not so unpopular...
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« Reply #724 on: December 17, 2012, 10:14:06 am »
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I think it's hilarious that despite the unpopularity of the governing coalition the CDU and FDP combined still manage to attract as much support as the red-green alternative percentage-wise.

Maybe because it's not so unpopular...
No, because the mainstream opposition is unattractive. Smiley
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