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| | |-+  2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 42651 times)
jeron
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« Reply #25 on: January 29, 2012, 09:00:04 am »
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There is also a new poll for Saarland by Emnid:

SPD 36%
CDU 36%
Greens 5%
FDP 2%
Linke 15%
Pirates 4%

So, either a Red-Red coalition or a Grand coalition.
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« Reply #26 on: January 29, 2012, 10:22:27 am »
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Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.
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« Reply #27 on: January 29, 2012, 05:50:10 pm »
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I think that one of dumbest thing FDP ever made was choosing to boycott alliances with SPD. Greens has a appeal to be different of SPD, while FDP has not. I think that a trafic-light coalition in 2005 could be bad for FDP in short-run, but not in the long-run, as they could be able to attract no-enviromentalist moderate left voters that are going now to the Pirates.
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jeron
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« Reply #28 on: January 31, 2012, 03:43:21 pm »
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Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.

I don't that think that there are real liberals within the CDU. There are CDU members that are politically close to the more conservative FDP members. However, as a liberal party FDP focuses more on the individual, while CDU emphasises family values and society as a whole.

« Last Edit: January 31, 2012, 03:51:05 pm by jeron »Logged
RedPrometheus
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« Reply #29 on: February 03, 2012, 06:31:21 am »
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Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.

I don't that think that there are real liberals within the CDU. There are CDU members that are politically close to the more conservative FDP members. However, as a liberal party FDP focuses more on the individual, while CDU emphasises family values and society as a whole.



Historically the CDU and especially the CSU were christian Parties. Adenauer intended the CDU to bring together Lutherans and Catholics into one party and win political majorities with this.

I don't believe that today this christian heritage is very much evident in day-to-day politics, but I'm always surprised how Christian and conservative members of the CDU's youth wing are.

The FDP was founded as a successor  of the liberal parties from the Weimar Republic and thus didn't have this Christian connection.
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« Reply #30 on: February 03, 2012, 09:00:06 am »

Well, in terms of voting patterns, the early FDP had a clear Protestant connection... like Weimar's liberals.
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« Reply #31 on: February 03, 2012, 11:22:32 am »
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The members of Bavarian Landtag for FDP have been still often Lutherans (or non religious).
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« Reply #32 on: February 11, 2012, 12:56:37 pm »
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Forsa poll for Berlin:

29% SPD
22% CDU
16% Greens
14% Pirates
10% Left
  0% FDP (lol)
  9% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

Looks like the FDP has ceased to exist in Berlin ... Tongue
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« Reply #33 on: February 11, 2012, 01:16:07 pm »
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Forsa poll for Berlin:

29% SPD
22% CDU
16% Greens
14% Pirates
10% Left
  0% FDP (lol)
  9% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

Looks like the FDP has ceased to exist in Berlin ... Tongue

Fast Drei Zwei Einem Prozent?
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« Reply #34 on: February 17, 2012, 05:07:45 am »
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So, another presidential election within the next 30 days.
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« Reply #35 on: February 17, 2012, 06:10:53 am »
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Hilarious, innit. Slow attrition, you begin to think he won't have to go (though I was certain, as of a couple of days ago, that he would not run for reelection, no matter what), there's more, and one day he's just gone. Just like with Guttenberg.
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« Reply #36 on: February 17, 2012, 06:12:59 am »
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Merkel's said she wants a compromise candidate now. We'll see if anything comes off that. Wouldn't be surprised if that's just lipservice to what she thinks the people want.
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« Reply #37 on: February 17, 2012, 09:27:12 am »
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New poll from Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 33% (+1,5%)
SPD: 33% (+7,6)
FDP: 3% (-11,9%)
Greens: 16% (+3,6%)
Left: 3% (-3%)
SSW: 3% (-1,3%)
Pirates: 5% (+3,2%)

The numbers are compared with the last election results. So both a CDU-Green-coalition and a SPD-Green-coalition and of course a CDU-SPD-coalition are possible.

Direcht election of the Ministerpresident:

de Jager (CDU): 29 %
Albig (SPD): 45%
None of the above: 15%

ndr.de/regional/schleswig-holstein/wahlumfrage137.html
« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 09:29:11 am by RedPrometheus »Logged

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2012, 02:06:23 pm »
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Candidates being vetted...
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



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« Reply #39 on: February 17, 2012, 03:59:11 pm »
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CDU/CSU/FDP emergency meeting on presidential succession today.

Coalition+SPD/Green meeting tomorrow. The Left isn't invited. Let's see what the government has to offer the opposition. They're probably drafting the shortlist right now. Tongue

SPD and Greens have preemptively ruled out any member of the current Merkel cabinet. (Incumbent defence minister Thomas de Maiziere in particular has been considered a likely candidate... he's boring, but respected.)
« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 04:18:02 pm by The Great Obamarama of 2012 »Logged
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« Reply #40 on: February 17, 2012, 04:17:04 pm »
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Broadly speaking, they are looking for a joachim gauck who is not called Joachim Gauck.

Though they might end up going with Gauck.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



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« Reply #41 on: February 17, 2012, 04:45:59 pm »
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Broadly speaking, they are looking for a joachim gauck who is not called Joachim Gauck.

So, Marianne Birthler then. Wink
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #42 on: February 18, 2012, 09:06:25 am »
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Rumor has it that the Government settled on Andreas Voßkuhle (President of the Constitutional Court, originally nominated to the Court by the SPD but never a member) and he turned them down.
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #43 on: February 18, 2012, 11:41:31 am »
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I've just read on tagesschau.de that Andreas Voßkuhle, Thomas de Maiziere, Klaus Töpfer, and Norbert Lammert all turned them down.

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/wulffruecktrittreax106.html

Suppose we have to leave the office vacant then, huh? Or maybe the four aforementioned people just want to force the elevation of Gauck to the presidency. Tongue

Meanwhile, the expected Coalition+SPD/Green meeting has been pushed back again. First it was supposed to be postponed till sunday, now it's not even sure it will be held then. Instead, a third round of CDU/CSU/FDP talks are expected for tomorrow.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2012, 11:48:41 am by The Great Obamarama of 2012 »Logged
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #44 on: February 18, 2012, 02:15:11 pm »
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I thought the FDP is vetoing Töpfer? de Maizière just knows what's good for him, of course. Lammert would have been a good choice.

I want Heiner Geißler now. Grin
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #45 on: February 18, 2012, 02:40:39 pm »
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At some point the office of President has to become more trouble than it's worth.
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Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #46 on: February 18, 2012, 02:54:12 pm »
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Lol, the Spiegel mentions our departing mayor Petra Roth as a potential contender. I could actually imagine that - purely representative duties is something she's very good at.

Time to look at the mayoral election campaign here then... eh. There is no campaign. Everybody is against airport noise and tries to avoid any other political statement whatsoever.
The Pirate poster campaign is like a parody of the other parties', climaxing in this beauty:



http://peteramende.de/grafik/piratenpartei-frankfurt-wahlkampf-plakate-2012/
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"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
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« Reply #47 on: February 18, 2012, 07:49:58 pm »
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What in particular has caused the FDP to crash so disastrously and for the Pirates to take their spot? Did the FDP get involved in baby-killing scandals or something?
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« Reply #48 on: February 18, 2012, 08:27:28 pm »
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Did the FDP get involved in baby-killing scandals or something?

Nothing that showed ever so much integrity as that.
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« Reply #49 on: February 19, 2012, 07:14:15 am »
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Frankfurt mayor Petra Roth vetoed by the FDP, just like Klaus Töpfer was. Apparently, the FDP is against any CDU politician who has a half-way positive opinion of the Greens (like Roth/Töpfer), because they're in fear of getting ditched as coalition partner by the CDU.

Former bishop Wolfgang Huber was considered something of a front-runner yesterday, but his chances are already dwindling again apparently.
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