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| | |-+  2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 38362 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #125 on: March 11, 2012, 01:19:24 pm »
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Rhein seems to win the 1st round with 39%.
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« Reply #126 on: March 11, 2012, 01:37:32 pm »
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Who will be in the runoff with him?
Donau?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #127 on: March 11, 2012, 01:42:57 pm »
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Who will be in the runoff with him?
Donau?

No, Klaus Main.
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« Reply #128 on: March 11, 2012, 02:46:07 pm »
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Nein zu Rhein - Rhein rhaus!

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« Reply #129 on: March 11, 2012, 02:48:29 pm »
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Rhein (CDU) 39.1
Feldmann (SPD) 33.0
Heilig (Greens) 14.0
Fechter (FAG) 4.0
Wißler (Left) 3.8
Förster (Pirate) 3.8
Schmitt (PARTEI) 1.8
Tatchoup (i) 0.2
Frenzel (i) 0.2
Schulte (i) 0.1
Turnout: Abysmal. (37.5%, which probably means that the number of day voters was virtually unchanged on 2007.)

Not a done deal, but my money's very much on Feldmann for the runoff.
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« Reply #130 on: March 11, 2012, 03:20:57 pm »
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http://www.wahlen.frankfurt.de/

Some odd patterns here. Along with some known or guessable patterns, of course.
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« Reply #131 on: March 11, 2012, 03:56:42 pm »
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Despite that could-be-worse result, Heilig didn't win a single precinct.

Fairly strong gap between absentee and day result:

Day Rhein 37.1, Feldmann 34.2
Absentee Rhein 45.9, Feldmann 25.8
These percentages are of votes cast, not valid votes - not going to sum all candidates across all absentee precincts to find out the valid vote total breakdown.
Put another way, absentees were 18.3% of all votes, cast, 21.7% of Rhein's and 14.4% of Feldmann's.
Put yet another way, 61% of Rhein's margin of victory was accrued before polling day.
But I guess that happens when there's only one rightwing candidate.
« Last Edit: March 12, 2012, 07:57:45 am by We are the 376! »Logged

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« Reply #132 on: March 12, 2012, 07:27:51 am »
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And the Green infighting now is funny, though all the quoted people's opinions are utterly predictable:

Cunitz, Sorge - pro Rhein
Heilig, Nouripour - anti any endorsement (read: will be voting for Feldmann but can't say that out loud given the coalition. Certainly in Heilig's case.)
Cohn-Bendit - pro Feldmann
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« Reply #133 on: March 12, 2012, 07:36:43 am »

There shall be a map... I think by this evening? Maybe?
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #134 on: March 12, 2012, 07:38:57 am »
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Cohn-Bendit?

Isn't he French?
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« Reply #135 on: March 12, 2012, 07:55:45 am »
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Cohn-Bendit?

Isn't he French?
Cohn-Bendit is a Frankfurt icon and a Frankfurt Green older statesman / grey eminence / senile old man muttering in the background.
He's also French, of course. Smiley
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« Reply #136 on: March 13, 2012, 06:53:43 pm »



The general patterns are what they are and so on. But... um... certain details?
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« Reply #137 on: March 13, 2012, 07:09:10 pm »
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So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?
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« Reply #138 on: March 13, 2012, 08:33:34 pm »
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So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?

Not really. But it's the part of the city that airplanes regularly fly over.
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« Reply #139 on: March 14, 2012, 04:54:51 am »
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So, FAG is tha anti-airport party?
And the airport is to the south of city, I suppose?
The airport is that odd southwest corner.

The personal votes for Feldmann (Bonames, probably some influence on the Frankfurter Berg as well) and Rhein (Nieder-Eschbach, not quite as pronounced) are funny. Petra Roth did always have some such bonus in Nieder-Erlenbach as well, but none of the last SPD candidates did.
Feldmann did much better than the SPD usually does in the Green stronghold areas, of course, but that's to be expected in a persons vote. Though it also happened in the Ypsilanti election of 2008; a lot of the seeming core Green vote is explicitly Red-Green in practice. And indeed, there seems to be a bit of an income pattern to Feldmann's success among Green voters (again, as also in 2008).
Turnout in certain effed areas was atrocious; sometimes even worse than in 2007. This has a turnout-differential effect, most visibly in the Gutleut, where the new yuppie developments in Westhafen outvoted the much larger remainder of the Stadtteil; their turnout was high. Feldmann won the remainder of it.
Fechter took the same kind of share citywide as the FAG took in the 2001 and 2006 council elections, but the pattern was even more pronounced than usual. She took 7 points more than back then in Sachsenhausen S and Niederrad, even less north of the river.
The Schmitt, Förster and Wißler maps are the expected mix of macro-Green/Old PDS and Random/Protest, but what's odd is that while Schmitt's distribution is the most "Green", Förster's, not Wißler's, is the most Protest-party-like (I even ran a correlation calculation on this thing. There's next to no correlation between Heilig and Förster, but both correlate with Wißler and Schmitt. Wißler's map is also a fairly good negative of Rhein's - the strongest negative correlation in there).
Oh, and turnout turnout turnout. High in the suburbs and the Green Bobo areas. Feldmann's map looks like a reasonablish class map, unless you start looking at his share of registered voters rather than vote cast. Then... uh.
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« Reply #140 on: March 14, 2012, 05:08:28 am »
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Seems like we're gonna have early elections in Northrhine-Westphalia as well this year.

So three state elections in Germany then. NRW won't be that exicting though. As it stands now, early elections would transform the incumbent SPD/Green minority government into a SPD/Green majority government.
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« Reply #141 on: March 14, 2012, 05:18:10 am »
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Seems like we're gonna have early elections in Northrhine-Westphalia as well this year.

So three state elections in Germany then. NRW won't be that exicting though. As it stands now, early elections would transform the incumbent SPD/Green minority government into a SPD/Green majority government.
Wow. FDP and Left both intending to vote for an Early Christmas? How silly can it get?
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« Reply #142 on: March 14, 2012, 05:19:32 am »
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Top map is simple over/under average contrast for share of the vote (Westend S and Old Town are right on average for the Greens, actually).
Bottom map is the same... for share of the electorate.

Have a look at the SPD. I don't even know what the hell that is a map of.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #143 on: March 14, 2012, 06:32:53 am »
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Apparently the NRW-FDP folks decided to book a trip to Guyana and drink some kool aid.

2012 is a good year so far.
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« Reply #144 on: March 14, 2012, 07:00:30 am »
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The FDP , Linke , (and CDU to a lesser extent) are insane.
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« Reply #145 on: March 14, 2012, 07:12:51 am »
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Great day! Especially for NRW!

Latest Poll shows:

SPD: 35%
CDU: 35%
Greens: 17%
FDP: 2%
Left: 3%
Pirates: 5%
Others: 3%

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/nrw.htm

I heard from an acquaintance from the political scene that the date for the elections is probably the 13th of May.
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« Reply #146 on: March 14, 2012, 07:13:09 am »
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I already heard the half-serious joke that the NRW-FDP probably wants to get rid of Philipp Rösler as federal chairman. Cheesy Hence their current suicide mission in the NRW state parliament.
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« Reply #147 on: March 14, 2012, 08:08:58 am »
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YouGov poll for NRW, apparently released today (?)

SPD 33%
CDU 33%
Greens 17%
Pirates 7%
Left 5%
FDP 2%

Majority for SPD/Greens
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« Reply #148 on: March 14, 2012, 09:55:59 am »
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Pretty tight schedule this year...

March 18: Presidential election (Federal convention)
March 25: Saarland state election
May 6: Schleswig-Holstein state election
May 13: Northrhine-Westphalia state election
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« Reply #149 on: March 14, 2012, 11:26:32 am »

Have a look at the SPD. I don't even know what the hell that is a map of.

Stable working class areas, those RedGreen swingers and suburbs full of ex-working class people Who Have Done Well For Themselves?
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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