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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderators: Comrade Sibboleth, PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  2012 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 38357 times)
Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #325 on: May 09, 2012, 06:40:29 am »
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As I read in the Taz from Monday or yesterday, some Pirate parliament members think of voting for Albig if they "like the coalition treaty".
Of course, they like "Schleswig Holstein traffic light" more than an "grand coalition".
I think, they, at least some, will vote with them on occasion
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Franzl
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« Reply #326 on: May 09, 2012, 07:42:31 am »
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Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".
Is it correctly understood that The Pirate Party is willing to support a Danish Traffic Light coalition from outside the cabinet? So that one or more silly SPD members cannot do the same trick as 2005.

And now they are making demands! If you understand German (I'm guessing you do. Danes are language geniuses Smiley) :


Quote
Die Piraten wollen den Sozialdemokraten Torsten Albig bei einer Wahl zum neuen schleswig-holsteinischen Ministerpräsidenten nur unter bestimmten Bedingungen unterstützen. Eine Koalition von SPD, Grünen und SSW müsse unter anderem die Vorratsdatenspeicherung im Bundesrat ablehnen, für mehr Transparenz in Politik und Verwaltung sorgen und das Wahlalter auf 16 Jahre senken, teilte die Partei mit - einen Tag vor Beginn der Sondierungsgespräche für die "Dänen-Ampel".
"Falls die Abgeordneten von SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen und SSW den Ministerpräsidentenkandidaten aus ihren Reihen wie 2005 nicht geschlossen unterstützen, könnte der Wahlausgang von den Stimmen der Piraten abhängen", sagte der neu gewählte Abgeordnete Patrick Breyer.
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« Reply #327 on: May 10, 2012, 03:31:03 am »
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The CDU's prime ministerial candidate for NRW, Norbert Röttgen, has lost his cool and started to turn into a Joe Biden gaffe machine. The CDU's campaign is desintegrating and Merkel has probably checked it off as a loss already.

Oh, well, here's the latest poll (YouGov, 05/09)
SPD 37%
CDU 30%
Greens 12%
Pirates 8.5%
FDP 6%
Left 3.5%
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farewell
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« Reply #328 on: May 11, 2012, 10:40:35 am »
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Maybe Röttgen is trying to reanimate the FDP?
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« Reply #329 on: May 11, 2012, 12:12:49 pm »
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1%.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #330 on: May 11, 2012, 03:35:57 pm »
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Is Hannelore Kraft rumored as SPD Kanzlerin-Candidate in 2013?
About Beck resignation, I think that he can be a good Kanzer candidate for SPD. In 2009, he didn't tried because he knew that he would lose to Merkel.
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« Reply #331 on: May 11, 2012, 08:47:38 pm »
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Kurt Beck won't be chancellor-candidate, ever. In 2009, he didn't run because he had been toppled as party chairman the year before. (Also, he isn't resigning yet since he already denied those rumours.)

Regarding Hannelore Kraft: 2013 is too early, because it will be Steinmeier's (again), Steinbrück's or Gabriel's turn then. 2017 wouldn't be too far-fetched though.
« Last Edit: May 11, 2012, 09:40:15 pm by Hollande-inspired avatar change »Logged

Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #332 on: May 11, 2012, 09:15:57 pm »
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Kurt Beck won't be chancellor-candidate, ever. In 2009 he didn't run because he had been toppled as party chairman the year before. (Also, he isn't resigning yet since he already denied those rumours.)

Regarding Hannelore Kraft: 2013 is too early, because it will be Steinmeier's (again), Steinbrück's or Gabriel's turn then. 2017 wouldn't be too far-fetched though.
Damnit, Steinmeier tried and failed once, it should be pretty clear that it oughta be someone else.  And not that Schroderite Steinbruck!  Way to alienate the SPD base even more. Gabriel is all right, but is there at least a chance of it?  And is she considered a Schroderite or more of a left-winger?
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« Reply #333 on: May 11, 2012, 09:37:16 pm »
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Well, there's always a *chance*. It's just below 50%. (Definitely below 20% too.)

Not really a left-winger per se, although certainly more left-wing than Schröder. Wink
« Last Edit: May 11, 2012, 09:39:52 pm by Hollande-inspired avatar change »Logged

True Federalist
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« Reply #334 on: May 11, 2012, 10:28:58 pm »
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Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".

Danish Traffic Light?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #335 on: May 11, 2012, 11:03:39 pm »
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Fun fact: CDU won 22 direct seats, SPD 13. No overhang seats - and the CDU candidate for state pm Jost de Jager has not been elected to parliament.

And yeah, they want to try the "Danish Traffic Light".

Danish Traffic Light?

SPD (Red) + SSW (Yellow) + Greens
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« Reply #336 on: May 12, 2012, 04:21:26 am »
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^^

The SSW's colour is blue, actually. So it's a Red-Blue-Green traffic light. Wink

Sometimes they start to refer to any coalition which consists of three parties as "traffic light"... which doesn't really makes sense, but that's the way it is.
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« Reply #337 on: May 12, 2012, 04:40:45 am »
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I liked it when they called "Jamaica" the "Schwampel".
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« Reply #338 on: May 12, 2012, 09:53:14 am »
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Final NRW poll (INFO GmbH, 11/05)

SPD 38%
CDU 33%
Greens 11%
Pirates 8%
FDP 5%
Left 4%

As with any other NRW poll, it was conducted prior to Norbert Röttgen's "In my opinion I should in fact become prime minister. Regrettebly, the CDU doesn't decide this, but the voters do."

So the CDU could still end up with less than 30% after all. Tongue
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 09:56:44 am by Old Europe »Logged

Tender Branson
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« Reply #339 on: May 12, 2012, 11:30:20 am »
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Prediction:

37.0% SPD
31.0% CDU
11.5% Greens
  7.5% Pirates
  5.5% FDP
  4.0% Left
  1.0% Pro NRW
  2.5% Others

48.5-44.0 majority for SPD-Greens.
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« Reply #340 on: May 12, 2012, 12:07:11 pm »
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Random fact: Northrhine-Westphalia covers about the same area as Maryland, but has a population comparable to that of Florida. As such, NRW has a higher population density than any state in the U.S.

(Population-wise it's also larger than Austria and Switzerland combined.)
« Last Edit: May 12, 2012, 12:27:06 pm by Old Europe »Logged

Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #341 on: May 13, 2012, 01:18:32 am »
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My prediction for today:

Currywurst 38%
CDU  30%
Greens  12%
Pirates  8%
FDP  5.01%
Left  3,5%

A majority for Red-Green and the FDP can say thank you to the CDU and Mr. Röttgähn Grin
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #342 on: May 13, 2012, 03:05:23 am »
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election.de projection of direct seats:



In 2010, election.de got 116 of 128 seats correct with their prediction.
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Franzl
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« Reply #343 on: May 13, 2012, 04:13:56 am »
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Depending on turnout...but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see the CDU down to 29% or so.
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #344 on: May 13, 2012, 11:00:48 am »
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Exit polls for NRW (ARD 18:00)

SPD  39
CDU  26
Greens  12
FDP  8,5
Pirates  7,5
Left  2,5
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farewell
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« Reply #345 on: May 13, 2012, 11:02:30 am »
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CDU  26
FDP  8,5
Lol.
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #346 on: May 13, 2012, 11:03:44 am »
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Exit polls for NRW (ZDF 18:00)

SPD  38
CDU  25,5
Greens  12
FDP  8,5
Pirates  8
Left  3
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« Reply #347 on: May 13, 2012, 11:05:47 am »
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The FDP actually gaining seats somewhere!?!?!?!

What is this madness?
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #348 on: May 13, 2012, 11:08:14 am »
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It is a very god result for the SPD und a disaster for the CDU (the worst result ever in NRW)

The greens have a good, but not a exellent result. In the FDP is the chairman of NRW , Lindner, the strong man now.
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Hans-im-Glück
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« Reply #349 on: May 13, 2012, 11:12:01 am »
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The FDP actually gaining seats somewhere!?!?!?!

What is this madness?

Some disappointed CDU voters voted this time FDP and their leader Lindner makes an Anti-Federal-FDP campaign.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2012, 11:13:53 am by Hans-im-Glück »Logged

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