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Author Topic: 2012 Elections in Germany  (Read 40962 times)
Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #450 on: May 19, 2012, 05:49:23 pm »
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Maybe they should just call themselves the  Labour Party?

I doubt that any party in Germany would call itself just "Arbeitspartei" or "Arbeiterpartei". The former just sounds silly, despite the fact that it is the way the Israeli Labor Party is usually translated into German (it literally means "work party"). And the latter has a ring of mid-19th century nostalgia to it ("workers' party").

"Partei der Arbeit" would be another alternative translation, but it sounds just as anachronistic (and it may evoke some negative connotations, since it's also the German translation for the ruling party in North Korea).

Possibly one reason why "Labour Party" is usually not translated into German at all, provided it refers to a political party from an English-speaking country.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2012, 05:58:18 pm by Old Europe »Logged
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #451 on: May 20, 2012, 12:04:05 am »
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How about "die Partei der Democratischen Linke?"
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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #452 on: May 20, 2012, 04:49:44 am »
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How about "die Partei der Democratischen Linke?"

The PDS/Left Party considered naming itself as such back in 2005, but they found out that a (very tiny) group using that name already existed.
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« Reply #453 on: May 20, 2012, 06:40:09 am »
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So when wil a credible and actually left-wing party emerge in Germany ?...

I don't think left voters can complain about a lack of choice in Germany ... you have the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke, which cover the entire range of the left political spectrum (from the realistic center-left to the extreme left).
And the Pirates. Though note that lack of choice was not what the complaint was about. The issue is entirely with the quality of the choices.
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On the contrary, the interesting question is whether there is a chance that a serious democratic party right of the CDU/CSU could emerge. The current CDU/CSU can't be considered right-wing, so in theory there is room for such a party on the right.
That's just wrong. It's understandable that people might think so, but it's wrong. Unless PvdV and such are considered "serious" and "democratic", and even then it's exceedingly iffy - the CDU esp. locally has the populist but by self-assessment respectable right pretty well covered, much better than the CDA or than the French right used to have. Better than the Tories in most parts, too, though things vary quite a bit between parts of Britain on that account.
 And where occasionally it doesn't, you get some local party led by a CDU or FDP renegade, either with no intention towards regional (let alone national) politics, or with at least one glorious fail attempt under his belt already.


Well, I don't know anything about local politics in Germany, but what I was getting at was the federal CDU and my impression that it is not right-wing at all. You have a CDU-led federal government which wants more public day care centers for children, pushes for denuclearization, is very pro-European, open towards the idea of a minimum wage ... I'm not saying the CDU is left, but I would not be surprised if there was a substantial number of conservatives who are alienated by these policies of the federal CDU. And haven't there been more or less serious rumours about Friedrich Merz and his potential plan to found a new federal party right of the CDU?
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« Reply #454 on: May 20, 2012, 09:03:10 am »
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There already is a party to the right of the CDU. It's called the FDP.
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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #455 on: May 20, 2012, 11:07:42 am »
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And haven't there been more or less serious rumours about Friedrich Merz and his potential plan to found a new federal party right of the CDU?

Those rumours have popped up now and then for the past ten years or so. Originally, Friedrich Merz was supposed to found it, but he has not been relevant for quite some time now. Other people frequently mentioned as wannabe right-wing party founders include Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Wolfgang Clement (originally SPD, now much closer to the FDP), Thilo Sarrazin, Hans-Olaf Henkel, possibly even Roland Koch. So basically anyone who has been described as "right-wing" in some sense and who's not actively engaged in party politics anymore. Would George W. Bush try to obtain German citizenship it would probably lead to rumours that he plans to found a new right-wing party in Germany as well. Tongue
« Last Edit: May 20, 2012, 11:09:27 am by Old Europe »Logged
Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #456 on: May 20, 2012, 01:23:46 pm »
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A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp. 

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?
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« Reply #457 on: May 20, 2012, 01:36:46 pm »
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I'm sure the average German voter would love the message that they had to pay more in taxes to send to Greece, so that the Greeks can continue not paying their taxes and use several times more than they collect. I'm sure that message won't won't result in the complete collapse of SPD.
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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #458 on: May 20, 2012, 04:04:20 pm »
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A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp.  

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?

^^

While this doesn't contradict the SPD's basic position on the issue, they surely would avoid phrasing it as "Germany gives more money to Greece".

The SPD has proposed a "European Growth Compact". Phrasing the narrative as "Europe provides money in order to generate growth in Europe" is the only way it may be accepted by German voters, although some may still figure out that it essentially means "Germany gives money to Greece" in the end.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #459 on: May 20, 2012, 04:33:48 pm »
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Hard to think of a worse slogan to run on than that...
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #460 on: May 20, 2012, 05:06:39 pm »
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A random question to Germans:
If the SPD ran on a platform of giving more money to Greece in 2013, would this type of message perhaps work?  Seems like it could unite the anti-bailout grumblers and the pro-growth camp.  

"The reason why we've had to give so many bailouts to Greece is because we've forced these austerity measures on Greece that have stifled the possibility of economic growth, which in turn makes it even harder for Greece to pay off its debt, so we've had to keep bailing them out with our tax money.  So why not give them the room to grow with more money, so that then they can actually pay down their debt rather than just avoid default and kick the can a bit further down the road, and we can finally be done with handing out bailouts?"

Would that work, or would Germans just scratch their heads?

^^

While this doesn't contradict the SPD's basic position on the issue, they surely would avoid phrasing it as "Germany gives more money to Greece".

The SPD has proposed a "European Growth Compact". Phrasing the narrative as "Europe provides money in order to generate growth in Europe" is the only way it may be accepted by German voters, although some may still figure out that it essentially means "Germany gives money to Greece" in the end.
I know it wouldn't be that phrasing.  Just sort of a "give them room to grow and get this headache over with" type of thing. 
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« Reply #461 on: May 21, 2012, 05:23:27 am »
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The message would have to be phrased as broadly "right now we're paying money to destroy Greece; let's pay money to actually, you know, help them instead".
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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #462 on: May 21, 2012, 10:42:35 am »
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The battle for the Left Party continues... maybe we can still hope for the big Lafontaine (leftish, Western, former SPD/WASG) vs. Bartsch (rightish, Eastern, former SED/PDS) showdown at the federal convention on June 2. But it seems like Lafo is losing ground. Strictly speaking, they're still looking for a woman too, since party statutes require a male and a female co-chairman. So far, nobody seems to run for the female spot though.

Oh, well, they're also expecting Alexis Tsipras in Berlin tomorrow. Maybe they can show him how you don't run a party. Tongue

(Before anyone asks... yes, the former SED guy is the "moderate" one of the candidates. As it is in fact often the case with the Left Party.)
« Last Edit: May 21, 2012, 10:50:58 am by Old Europe »Logged
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« Reply #463 on: May 21, 2012, 10:53:30 am »
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Strictly speaking, they're still looking for a woman too, since party statutes require a male and a female co-chairman. So far, nobody seems to run for the female spot though.

What about Wagenknecht ? She not interested anymore ? Would a Lafontaine-Wagenknecht leadership be too much for the Left ?

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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #464 on: May 21, 2012, 10:58:09 am »
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Would a Lafontaine-Wagenknecht leadership be too much for the Left ?

Precisely. Lafontaine as chairman and the woman he has sex with as his co-leader would be a bit too much to bear.

But maybe Lafontaine withdraws his bid and we'll end up with Bartsch/Wagenknecht as co-chairmen of the party in the end. That's still a feasible scenario, I suppose.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2012, 11:09:57 am by Old Europe »Logged
Sibboleth
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« Reply #465 on: May 21, 2012, 01:31:30 pm »
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(Before anyone asks... yes, the former SED guy is the "moderate" one of the candidates. As it is in fact often the case with the Left Party.)

Of course it is.
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« Reply #466 on: May 22, 2012, 01:30:43 am »
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NRW-BOOST !

New YOUGOV/INSA/BILD poll:

33% CDU/CSU
32% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Pirates
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  3% Others

http://de.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idDEBEE84L00720120522

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/weitere-umfragen.htm

Since their May 1 poll, CDU/CSU is down by 3, the SPD is up 5, the Greens up 1, the Left down 1, the Pirates down 1 and the FDP is unchanged.
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« Reply #467 on: May 22, 2012, 01:34:53 am »
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This must be rather disturbing for Merkel, actually.
As long as the CDU is in first place, there's virtually no chance that she won't remain Chancellor, regardless with what coalition. If the SPD is gaining that strongly, though...?

It's probably just a Kraft bump that will go down, but it is perhaps something to worry about a little.
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« Reply #468 on: May 22, 2012, 01:39:28 am »
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This must be rather disturbing for Merkel, actually.
As long as the CDU is in first place, there's virtually no chance that she won't remain Chancellor, regardless with what coalition. If the SPD is gaining that strongly, though...?

It's probably just a Kraft bump that will go down, but it is perhaps something to worry about a little.

A Grand Coalition led by Merkel is still much more likely than Red-Green, because I think the Pirates and Greens will remain strong until the fall of next year and the Left will probably also rise again slightly after their convention turns out well. Therefore the CDU should remain ahead of the SPD again, because the FDP will continue to be around 4% with Rösler.
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« Reply #469 on: May 22, 2012, 01:42:35 am »
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BTW: I'm rather uninformed about what thing: Has anything actually been changed about the Überhangmandate?

Not that it would cause much havoc with the SPD almost at equal strength.
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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #470 on: May 22, 2012, 06:16:01 am »
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BTW: I'm rather uninformed about what thing: Has anything actually been changed about the Überhangmandate?

Not that it would cause much havoc with the SPD almost at equal strength.

Well, a new electoral law had been passed late last year. It neither abolished overhang seats nor the problems with the negative vote weight though. Which is why another complaint has been filed with the Constitutional Court. It's therefore quite possible that the new electoral law will be sacked as well.

More information on that:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/bundestag/verfassungsbeschwerde-bundeswahlgesetz.html
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« Reply #471 on: May 22, 2012, 11:55:38 am »
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(Before anyone asks... yes, the former SED guy is the "moderate" one of the candidates. As it is in fact often the case with the Left Party.)

Of course it is.
Exactly as with the 80s Greens, though for only partially identical reasons.
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« Reply #472 on: May 23, 2012, 02:18:34 am »
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New federal poll from Forsa:

CDU 31
SPD 27
Piraten 13
Grüne 13
FDP 6
Linke 6

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Markus Brandenburg
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« Reply #473 on: May 23, 2012, 03:21:33 am »
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And Lafontaine has withdrawn.
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Franzl
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« Reply #474 on: May 23, 2012, 03:25:08 am »
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And Lafontaine has withdrawn.

In his own, unique style.
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