2012 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

We only have the Innsbruck town council elections in April and the Burgenland town council elections in October ...

Unless there are snap federal elections called for this year, which is unlikely.

[Tender Branson]

A few new polls:

Hessen

33% CDU
31% SPD
21% Greens
  4% Left
  4% Pirates
  3% FDP
  4% Others

Strong 52-33 majority for SPD-Greens. 60-36 majority for Left-wingish parties.

Hamburg

51% SPD
20% CDU
14% Greens
  5% Pirates
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Others

Absolute 51-39 majority for SPD. 74-23 majority for Left-wingish parties.

NRW

33% SPD
31% CDU
17% Greens
  8% Pirates
  5% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Others

50-44 majority for SPD-Greens. 63-34 majority for Left-wingish parties.

[Tender Branson]

New Schleswig-Holstein poll, which will hold state elections this year:

34% CDU
32% SPD
15% Greens
  7% Pirates
  4% FDP
  3% SSW
  3% Left
  2% Others

47-41 majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

2 interesting new polls out today:

Niedersachsen

36%  [-6.5] CDU
32% [+1.7] SPD
17% [+9.0] Greens
  5%  [-2.1] Left
  4% [+4.0] Pirates
  3%  [-5.2] FDP
  3%  [-0.9] Others

49-41 majority for SPD-Greens.

Saarland (votes at the end of March)

38% [+13.5] SPD
34%    [-0.5] CDU
13%    [-8.3] Left
  6%   [+0.1] Greens
  5%   [+5.0] Pirates
  2%    [-7.2] FDP
  2%    [-2.6] Others

51-45 majority for SPD-Left, or 49-47 majority for SPD-Greens-Pirates or a Grand Coalition.

What is a likely coalition in yourr opinion ?

[Tender Branson]

Forsa poll for Berlin:

29% SPD
22% CDU
16% Greens
14% Pirates
10% Left
  0% FDP (lol)
  9% Others

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/berlin.htm

Looks like the FDP has ceased to exist in Berlin ...

[Tender Branson]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

[Tender Branson]

Early elections wouldn't even be too bad for the CDU at the moment.

Their share would even increase from 33% to about 38% ...

PLEASE MERKEL !!!! PLEASE GO ON !!!

You're hoping for early elections because you're accepting a possible grand coalition as the lesser evil or because you still hope there might be a red-green government?

Red-Green is very, very unlikely today.

CDU/Left/Pirates have close to 50% (36+7+7), while SPD/Greens have only about 40-45%.

If there are new elections, there would be almost for sure a GROKO.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the estimated party strength of the next Bundesversammlung, which will elect the next President:



There are a total of 1240 electoral voters.

Majority is 621.

CDU/CSU/FDP = 623-626
SPD/Greens/Left/Others = 614-617

The final number for each party is not yet clear, because they have to draw some lots.

[Tender Branson]

No.

Because the Presidential Election is worth 2 sentences and can be posted in the other thread:

"Gauck got ____ votes, while _____ electoral voters (mostly from the Left and the Nazis opposed him."

"Gauck will be sworn in on _____"

The end.

[Tender Branson]

I found this cartoon funny. It's called "Deutscher Stammtisch" and it's about Ex-President Wulff's recent demands and Greece:

[Tender Branson]

LOL.

FDP @ 1% in Saarland and 2% in Schleswig-Holstein ahead of the state elections:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/saarland.htm

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/schleswig-holstein.htm

[Tender Branson]

Not just in Frankfurt.

It seems a lot of people from the East have come to all of (mostly southern Germany) and Austria in the past year to look for work, because the labor markets in GER/AUT were opened to the Eastern Europeans about 1 year ago.

But it's nothing compared to what the FPÖ predicted ("massive immigration tsunami of Eastern Europeans into Austria", "they take ouuuurr jooobs").

Maybe 10.000 or 20.000 have come here in the past year.

[Tender Branson]

Results will start coming in what sort of time?

Polls usually close at 6pm in Germany (don't know if they do in Frankfurt as well in local elections).

That would be in about 2 hours.

Counting takes about 2-3 hours I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Rhein seems to win the 1st round with 39%.

[Tender Branson]

Who will be in the runoff with him?
Donau?

No, Klaus Main.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently the NRW-FDP folks decided to book a trip to Guyana and drink some kool aid.

2012 is a good year so far.

[Tender Branson]

Infratest dimap poll for Northrhine-Westphalia, conducted and released today:

SPD 38%
CDU 34%
Greens 14%
Pirates 5%
Left 4%
FDP 2%

[Tender Branson]

Nice article:

Germany’s most populous state to hold new elections as govt stumbles over budget

BERLIN — Germany’s most populous state will hold early elections after its minority government narrowly failed to get a budget passed Wednesday — a prospect that could boost the country’s center-left opposition.

All 181 members of the state legislature in North Rhine-Westphalia voted to dissolve it. That means a new regional election must be held within 60 days, although no date was immediately set.

North Rhine-Westphalia, a western region of some 18 million people that includes Cologne and the Ruhr industrial region, is governed by the center-left Social Democrats and Greens.

The vote Wednesday came hours after a budget proposal from the state government fell one vote short of a majority. Center-right opponents have accused it of poor financial management and demanded more belt-tightening.

Polls suggest Social Democratic Governor Hannelore Kraft and her coalition could benefit from the new election, which comes three years ahead of schedule. Those parties are in opposition nationally to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right government, but state governments wield influence in highly federalized Germany — not the least via the upper house of parliament, where they are represented.

Kraft’s center-left alliance took power in 2010, replacing a coalition of Merkel’s conservatives and the pro-market Free Democrats — the parties that form the national government.

Both voted against the new budget Wednesday because they wanted to reduce the state’s borrowing.

Merkel said new elections offered a prospect to elect “a government that won’t obstruct the state’s opportunities by taking on ever more debt.”

Norbert Roettgen, the local chairman of Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union who is also her federal environment minister, said he would lead its bid to take back the state.

But that looks like an uphill struggle. Polls suggest Kraft’s coalition has a good chance of winning a majority and that the Free Democrats will struggle to win the 5 percent needed to keep their seats.

The Free Democrats, battered by their failure to win tax cuts, already are in danger of being ejected from two other state parliaments in votes over the next two months.

Elections in North Rhine-Westphalia won’t have a direct effect on the federal government. But an election campaign may prove a distraction, with national elections due in the fall of 2013.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/germanys-most-populous-state-to-hold-new-elections-as-govt-stumbles-over-budget/2012/03/14/gIQAGBR4BS_story.html

[Tender Branson]

Lindner surge!

Barney Lindner 2012 !!!

[Tender Branson]

I almost forgot there's a state election in Saarland tomorrow.

Here's my prediction:

35% SPD
33% CDU
16% Left
  5% Pirates
  5% Greens

  2% FDP 
  4% Others

Results in a SPD-CDU Grand Coalition.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close at 6 ?

Do you think the Left with Oskar Lafontaine is once again underestimated, like before the last election ?

Do you think the Pirates are overestimated ?

I think both could be true.

We'll see in 50 minutes ...

[Tender Branson]

Turnout reports from 14:00 suggest that turnout might be back at the low end from 2004, when only 56% went to the polls. It could be slightly higher this year, somewhere between 55-60%.

[Tender Branson]

Exit Polls in 5 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

18:00 Exit Poll (N-TV):

34.5% CDU
31.0% SPD
16.0% Left
  7.5% Pirates
  5.0% Greens
  1.5% FDP
  4.5% Others

[Tender Branson]

ARD Exit Poll: