2012 Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

Time for a new thread methinks.

Calendar

May 6th Schleswig-Holstein

Yeah, that's it. So far. We might get new elections on the Saar. We might get a new President. We'll have to wait and see.

We'll also have a mayoral election on the 11th and 25th of march here in Frankfurt, and I intend to report on that.

[minionofmidas]

10 candidates have filed - deadline was on the fifth. We won't be told whether they all got their paperwork right etc til the 12th.

But here they are

Boris Rhein. CDU. Spoiled little brat whose father was an SPD politico who defected to the CDU towards the very end of his 20 year political career. Was an MdL 1999 to 2006, a Dezernent 2006 to 2009 and is now Hesse's home minister. Just turned 40, and seems to have lost some weight of recent.



Peter Feldmann. SPD. Attention whore and longtime city councillor. Jewish, as I learned a couple of days ago. Frankfurt has had Jewish politicians postwar, of course (Heiner Halberstadt, Ignatz Bubis and Michel Friedman come to mind), but I can't think of any postwar Jewish mayor of any major city in Germany. So that's a little curio. This is a down-in-the-dumps party that looked hard for a candidate who wasn't Michael Paris, but hilariously he might actually win this.



Rosemarie Heilig. Greens. Another party that was looking hard for a candidate after Manuela Rottmann turned it down. They govern this city along with the CDU, and they know Rhein is not remotely palatable to their voters (or to many within the decision-making circles, either.) Besides, given how the party polled recently and that Frankfurt is a stronghold, and that not running someone against Petra Roth in 2007 already looked bad... they had to find someone. Rosi Heilig looks good on paper with some administrative (that Feldmann is utterly lacking) as well as council experience. The problem is that no one knows her, and the few who do do so as Rosi Oswald. That's the name she sat on the council under. After her probably inevitable defeat she'll still fall upward - her election as Dezernentin that was already decided before Roth resigned will go ahead as planned.


Janine Wissler. Left. MdL. Younger than me, and rode the mid-2000s student protests wave into the Landtag. A trot.

Herbert Förster. Pirate. One of their two city councillors. Runs a tea shop. No, not a "tea shop" ie British middle class cafe. A shop that sells teas.

Ursula Fechter. FAG (that's FlughafenAusbauGegner). The new runway is built now, and everyone who pooh-poohed the talk about additional noise has been rather convincingly shut up by the airport itself. Meanwhile, the courts have issued an injunction until their final decision some time later in the spring that bans all night-time flights (this had originally been part of the package deal to get the thing built, but got watered down in later negotiations between the airport and its owner the state of Hesse.) So the issue is back on the agenda, and pretty huge.


Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate. The FW had a candidate - not their public face Wolfgang Hübner, whyever, but some unknown called Reinhard Kölsch. Who beat another unknown who had Hübner's support at the selection meeting. And then had to withdraw due to "unforeseeable, major family and health issues" (sounded like his wife was diagnosed with cancer or something seriously ugly like that.) Now they're without a candidate either, and have decided not to endorse anybody for round one, reserving the right to do so for a runoff.
Also, no nazi candidate, which surprised me.


Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief. "Honorary chairman" of the PARTEI. Which is now running him on the following platform:

1. Frankfurt 21. Move the financial district underground for a free view of the main station.

2. Dissolve the posh ghettos. Distribute the population of the Lerchesberg and the Holzhausenviertel onto the tower blocks.

3. Careful reconstruction of the Technisches Rathaus (this ugly concrete 60s thing over the ruins of the oldest part of Frankfurt has just been torn down, lol. And now they'll do some pastiche pseudo-reconstruction of oldness.) Demolition of Saint Nicholas church (opposite the Römer) to make room for much needed parking space in the old town.

4. Put a minus sign in front of the Euro monument.

5. Dissolution of Eintracht Frankfurt due to lack of perspective, immediate promotion of the FSV to the Bundesliga.

6. Renaming of four roads in very different parts of the city, apparently chosen at random, to Robert-Gernhardt-Straße. I'm not sure if that's a tribute to Gernhardt (a cofounder of Titanic), or a mockery of the many official tributes to the New Frankfurt School at the moment...

7. Tax on patio heaters (this was a recent rent-a-quote demand from a supposedly serious politicians) and on bringing SUVs into the city

8. No wall between Frankfurt and Offenbach (yes, that's the official plank. No, nobody wants to build a wall.) Instead Offenbach should just be annexed.

9. Smaller and cuter animals for the zoo

10 The airport to be relocated into the Taunus.


This is where it gets seriously obscure. Independent candidates Harald Frenzel (who?), Carlo Maria Schulte and Jean-Jules Tatchouop - frequent off-the-wall candidates both. I like Tatchouop. He's a nice bloke up close, though obviously mad as a hatter. DRC native.

[minionofmidas]

Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate.

...


Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief.

Surely the co-owner of something called Titanic would have been a natural candidate for Fast Drei Zwei Prozent to endorse?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic_%28magazine%29

And then there's...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[minionofmidas]

All ten candidates have done their paperwork right, all those that needed signatures (and that includes Fechter - the only remaining FAG councillor has joined the FDP's council party {wtf?} and left the FAG, so she's a candidate not nominated by a party represented in the city council) had enough valid signatures from registered voters - 186. The unrepresented candidates had their ballot order drawn by lot, the others are by last council election. The official ballot is

1 Boris Rhein
2 Rosemarie Heilig
3 Peter Feldmann
4 Janine Wißler (apparently, this is the official spelling of her surname, though she prefers to use Wissler)
5 Herbert Förster
6 Carl-Maria Schulte
7 Ursula Fechter
8 Harald Frenzel
9 Jean-Jules Tatchouop (who is of course from Cameroun, not the DRC. My apologies!)
10 Oliver Schmitt

Frenzel is a retired former Frankfurt firefighter who now resides in Fränkisch-Crumbach in the Odenwald. He also contested mayoral elections there a couple of years ago, receiving 1.4% of the vote. I have no idea about any political stances of his, but he submitted exactly 186 signatures, 5 minutes before the 6pm deadline of a week ago, and had the good fortune that every one of them was valid.

[minionofmidas]

FR has some sort of poll. By Omniquest, and done American style, without excluding undecideds. Also didn't poll the minor candidates.

Rhein 32.1
Feldmann 19.4
Heilig 12.4
Förster 4.3
Wißler 2.8
other / NOTA 8.7 (apparently. Deduced from the other figures adding to 91.3)
undecided 20.3

[minionofmidas]

What's the fix for the election law? Is the CDU playing utterly disgusting holding games with the Constitution like its federal counterpart?

[minionofmidas]

'twas on the radio, so, yeah.

[minionofmidas]

Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.

[minionofmidas]

Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.

No it makes it 50-41 for SPD-Green-SSW

No. Reality doesn't work that way.

[minionofmidas]

Saarland (votes at the end of March)

38% [+13.5] SPD
34%    [-0.5] CDU
13%    [-8.3] Left
  6%   [+0.1] Greens
  5%   [+5.0] Pirates
  2%    [-7.2] FDP
  2%    [-2.6] Others

51-45 majority for SPD-Left, or 49-47 majority for SPD-Greens-Pirates or a Grand Coalition.

What is a likely coalition in yourr opinion ?

SPD-CDU. Followed by CDU-SPD as the second most likely option.

Not that many of the others can be ruled out, mind.

[minionofmidas]

Hilarious, innit. Slow attrition, you begin to think he won't have to go (though I was certain, as of a couple of days ago, that he would not run for reelection, no matter what), there's more, and one day he's just gone. Just like with Guttenberg.

[minionofmidas]

Merkel's said she wants a compromise candidate now. We'll see if anything comes off that. Wouldn't be surprised if that's just lipservice to what she thinks the people want.

[minionofmidas]

Candidates being vetted...

[minionofmidas]

Broadly speaking, they are looking for a joachim gauck who is not called Joachim Gauck.

Though they might end up going with Gauck.

[minionofmidas]

Rumor has it that the Government settled on Andreas Voßkuhle (President of the Constitutional Court, originally nominated to the Court by the SPD but never a member) and he turned them down.

[minionofmidas]

I thought the FDP is vetoing Töpfer? de Maizière just knows what's good for him, of course. Lammert would have been a good choice.

I want Heiner Geißler now.

[minionofmidas]

Lol, the Spiegel mentions our departing mayor Petra Roth as a potential contender. I could actually imagine that - purely representative duties is something she's very good at.

Time to look at the mayoral election campaign here then... eh. There is no campaign. Everybody is against airport noise and tries to avoid any other political statement whatsoever.
The Pirate poster campaign is like a parody of the other parties', climaxing in this beauty:



http://peteramende.de/grafik/piratenpartei-frankfurt-wahlkampf-plakate-2012/

[minionofmidas]

Frankfurt mayor Petra Roth vetoed by the FDP, just like Klaus Töpfer was. Apparently, the FDP is against any CDU politician who has a half-way positive opinion of the Greens (like Roth/Töpfer), because they're in fear of getting ditched as coalition partner by the CDU.

It's more the fear that journalists would view/spin such a choice as a signal in a Black-Green direction. It's fairly meta.

[minionofmidas]

Greens: Okay with both.

If they'd let the Left decide (which they won't)... who'd they go with?

[minionofmidas]

I just abused google to see if I could find a German called "Klaus-Joachim Göpfer" or "Klaus-Joachim Gaupfer" who might be willing to step in... but the closest google got me was Frankfurter Rundschau local reporter Claus-Jürgen Göpfert.

[minionofmidas]

You can stop arguing, there's white smoke over the palace.

[minionofmidas]

Merge plz.

[minionofmidas]

I am stunned.

An attack piece on the Left, in a German mainstream media, that actually pinpoints where the problem lies and understands its subject. Get that man out of journalism, he's wasted in that hellbound profession.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,817338,00.html

Required reading if you understand a little German.

[minionofmidas]

No.

Because the Presidential Election is worth 2 sentences and can be posted in the other thread:

"Gauck got ____ votes, while _____ electoral voters (mostly from the Left and the Nazis opposed him."

"Gauck will be sworn in on _____"

The end.

18th March. He'll be sworn in right after the vote.

[minionofmidas]

FR has some sort of poll. By Omniquest, and done American style, without excluding undecideds. Also didn't poll the minor candidates.

Rhein 32.1
Feldmann 19.4
Heilig 12.4
Förster 4.3
Wißler 2.8
other / NOTA 8.7 (apparently. Deduced from the other figures adding to 91.3)
undecided 20.3

And a second poll by the same pollster, with one week to go:

Rhein 30.0
Feldmann 22.3
Heilig 10.9
Förster 3.6
Wißler 2.4
Fechter (getting a breakout now) 2.0
other / NOTA / refused to state (at least they now clearly state it's summed from these three) 10.5
undecided 18.3

Definitely headed to a runoff on the 25th.

I shall be voting for Jean-Jules. Somebody's got to do it. Besides, it doesn't matter one jot who I vote for as long as I do vote and it's not for Rhein.