2012 Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Basic stuff on the Schleswig-Holstein election:

The state is governed by Peter Harry Carstensen, first in a CDU/SPD coalition (2005-2009), then in a CDU/FDP coalition (since 2009).

Carstensen is not running for another term. His designated successor Christian von Boetticher dopped out last year after having admitted a sexual relationship with a 16-year-old girl. Boetticher'successor Jost de Jager was fairly unknown, having been the state's economics minister since only 2009.

The popular mayor of the state capital of Kiel, Torsten Albig, managed to defeat SPD state chairman Ralf Stegner in a primary-like contest in early 2011.

The last poll for the state election came out on November 18 last year (Forsa):
CDU 33%
SPD 32%
Greens 17%
Pirates 6%
SSW 3%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

As representative of the Danish minority, the SSW is exempted from the 5% threshold to win seats.

All bets are on a SPD/Green coalition under Albig, obviously.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Doesn't the SSW always get a couple is seats in Schleswig-Holstein under a special law and they almost always ally themselves with the SPD against the CDU?

Define "almost always".

They tried it back in 2005 (SPD/Green minority government backed by the SSW) and I have no idea whether they'll be willing to give it another try after having experienced that debacle.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, another presidential election within the next 30 days.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CDU/CSU/FDP emergency meeting on presidential succession today.

Coalition+SPD/Green meeting tomorrow. The Left isn't invited. Let's see what the government has to offer the opposition. They're probably drafting the shortlist right now.

SPD and Greens have preemptively ruled out any member of the current Merkel cabinet. (Incumbent defence minister Thomas de Maiziere in particular has been considered a likely candidate... he's boring, but respected.)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Broadly speaking, they are looking for a joachim gauck who is not called Joachim Gauck.

So, Marianne Birthler then.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I've just read on tagesschau.de that Andreas Voßkuhle, Thomas de Maiziere, Klaus Töpfer, and Norbert Lammert all turned them down.

http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/wulffruecktrittreax106.html

Suppose we have to leave the office vacant then, huh? Or maybe the four aforementioned people just want to force the elevation of Gauck to the presidency.

Meanwhile, the expected Coalition+SPD/Green meeting has been pushed back again. First it was supposed to be postponed till sunday, now it's not even sure it will be held then. Instead, a third round of CDU/CSU/FDP talks are expected for tomorrow.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Frankfurt mayor Petra Roth vetoed by the FDP, just like Klaus Töpfer was. Apparently, the FDP is against any CDU politician who has a half-way positive opinion of the Greens (like Roth/Töpfer), because they're in fear of getting ditched as coalition partner by the CDU.

Former bishop Wolfgang Huber was considered something of a front-runner yesterday, but his chances are already dwindling again apparently.

[Middle-aged Europe]

FDP is supporting Gauck now, as do SPD and Greens.

CDU is still against it although they really don't have an argument why (except that he was nominated by the SPD in 2010 but they can't say that aloud).

Come on Merkel, please f**k it up again. Somehow you'll always find some third-rate guy instead of Gauck.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Klaus Töpfer was now declared second preference by the SPD.

CDU: against Gauck, for Töpfer
FDP: for Gauck, against Töpfer
SPD: for Gauck, or maybe Töfper

Hilarious. Looks like a Mexican standoff to me.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Greens: Okay with both.

If they'd let the Left decide (which they won't)... who'd they go with?

Töpfer as the lesser evil obviously (from their point of view anyway).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pity that the scheduled CDU-FDP-SPD-Green talks will happen behind closed doors this evening.


Rösler (FDP): We want Gauck!

Merkel (CDU): We want Töpfer!

Rösler (FDP): No way!

Merkel (CDU): You're free to leave my government if you don’t like it.

Brüderle (FDP): *mumbles* Go f**k yourself.

Steinmeier (SPD): Guys, it's not a contest.

Özdemir (Greens): Yeah, we need to be a bit more constructive here.

Trittin (Greens): Well, If you ask me I find it highly entertaining.

Pofalla (CDU): Shut the f**k up, Trittin!

[Middle-aged Europe]

As of this evening, a breakup of the coalition and early Bundestag elections is at least an option which is on the table. In any case, Merkel will probably use it as a threat to discipline the FDP.

If they don't back down, it's what could happen. Naturally, SPD and Greens will do everything in their power that the FDP doesn't back down. What could save the coalition is the fact that FDP chairman Philipp Rösler is a coward who won't have the balls to go through with it... maybe.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The coalition isn't breaking up. As you say - the FDP is scared to death of that option, with good reason.

Merkel certainly has nothing to fear. I think she'd rather lead a new grand coalition anyway.

Yeah, in that case it will be quite a humiliation for the FDP because it means that they have to repeal their own presidium's unanimous vote in favour of Gauck from earlier today. Which also means Merkel could simply ignore the FDP and do anything she wants in future intra-coalition conflicts.

If the FDP doesn't back down it could be over for the party... that is as a party which is represented in the Bundestag.

In any case, the FDP will lose big today. The question is what Rösler considers the lesser evil.

[Middle-aged Europe]

focus.de now reports that Joachim Gauck is going to become president. No other site seems to report it yet.

Surprising... if true it means that Philipp Rösler has finally become a man today.

[Middle-aged Europe]

ZDF reports it now too.

Merkel surrenders? WTF?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, that was a close one. Apparently, some in the CDU are pretty pissed at the FDP now. There's some talk of "getting back at them" at the earliest opportunity.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Yeah, the exciting stuff happened this weekend... sunday in particular.

On March 18, Gauck will be rubberstamped. The only remaining question is whether the Left decided to run a candidate of their own.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On March 18, Gauck will be rubberstamped. The only remaining question is whether the Left decided to run a candidate of their own.

Considering they have no warm feelings for Gauck, they certainly will run a candidate.

They could also vote "no". But a Left candidate is probably more likely, yes.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Left will run Beate Klarsfeld.

Either her or political scientist Christoph Butterwegge or 2010 candidate Luc Jochimsen again.

[Middle-aged Europe]

As it stands now, CDU, SPD, FDP and Greens were able to agree on a presidential candidate much faster than the Left Party does for their own candidate.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, at least the CDU can now claim that it was right to exclude the Left from the presidential nomination process because the party doesn't even agree with itself let alone any other party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

don't tell me than pirate voters are ONLY motivate by the possibility of downloading movies?

That plays only a very minor part in the party's public perception. If anything, their pro-civil liberties/anti-government surveillance stance is their most well-known political position.

Mostly they are seen as a fresher and better version of the Greens though. A non-extremist alternative to the "establishment" parties.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ah, well, and the Left has finally settled on Beate Klarsfeld as their presidential candidate... after the two other folks have dropped out.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The NPD has nominated "historian" Olaf Rose as their presidential candidate. "Historian" because he mainly writes stuff about the great statesman Adolf Hitler and how he become a victim of evil Allied warmongering etc.

Seems we're complete now with the trio of Gauck, Klarsfeld, and Rose.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Are articles starting to appear in German newspapers with headlines like "End of the Road for FDP?"? New parties pop up and old parties disappear...when the FDP is getting as low as 1 or 2% in some state elections and polling at 2 or 3% nationally - you have to wonder if that party could just DIE?

Not so much. The party is merely seen to be a constant state of crisis. Something most people have gotten used to it and accepted as "normal" by now.   Also, they're still represented in eleven state parliaments and five state governments (which is the same number of state governments Greens and Left have combined btw).

The narrative could change as soon as we're only a few months from the next federal election away and the party would still poll well below 5% nationally (so, around summer of 2013).

Actually, why exactly has the FDP performed so terribly? Is party infighting *that* bad?

What infighting?? That's the FDP, not the Left Party. The FDP is in a state of apathy, not in one of conflict. For starters, the FDP's senior personnel simply sucks. They've got a substandard chairman (Rösler) who's the successor of a another substandard chairman (Westerwelle). And the only reason why Rösler's still there is because his successor would probably be even worse.