2012 Elections in Germany

[DL]

Doesn't the SSW always get a couple is seats in Schleswig-Holstein under a special law and they almost always ally themselves with the SPD against the CDU?

[DL]

Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.

No it makes it 50-41 for SPD-Green-SSW

[DL]

Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

[DL]

Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

It's never been clear to me what the FDP's raisin d'être is. How different are they from several factions within the CDU? It's true that they might have survived bad state election results in the past but they have never been bounced out of the Bundestag at the national level. If that happened it might be game over for them.

[DL]

Are articles starting to appear in German newspapers with headlines like "End of the Road for FDP?"? New parties pop up and old parties disappear...when the FDP is getting as low as 1 or 2% in some state elections and polling at 2 or 3% nationally - you have to wonder if that party could just DIE?

[DL]

What sort of government is likely to be formed in Saarland? Red-Red or Grand Coalition?

[DL]

Why don't the Greens and the Pirates merge - I can't imagine that they are all that far apart on the issues and they must both appeal to a similar segment of the population.

[DL]

Even on these numbers - an SPD/Green/SSW coalition could be formed - and still avoid having to work with those yucky Christian Democrats

[DL]

In a case like S-H where its very touch and go as to whether the math will be there or not for an SPD/Green/SSW government and if that does work it may that a Grand Coalition is the only possible government - suddenly it becomes critical which party is the largest since it would supply the Premier....if the polls show a near toss-up between the SPD and CDU for biggest party - could you start to have some "strategic voting" by supporters of smaller parties who might vote SPD to make sure that the SPD is the largest party and that its leader becomes premier no matter what?>

[DL]

Hannelore seems to be by far the most popular SPD politician in Germany these days. Has there been any talk of making her the SPD candidate for Chancellor against Merkel next year??

[DL]

What sort of coalition was finally formed in Saarland?

[DL]

There already is a party to the right of the CDU. It's called the FDP.

[DL]

In the UK, the Tories were supposed to win in a big landslide and Labour was supposed to be crushed, instead it ended up being a weak Tory minority and Labour suffered much milder losses than anyone expected...every time you think you have a pattern, something contrary happens. One thing that is about 99.99999% certain is that there will be no more rightwing CDU/FDP coalition in Germany aft the next election. The best Merkel can hope for is that she shifts over to a centre-left coalition with the SPD and they will get wayy more cabinet seats than the FDP currently has since they would have close to have of the combined CDU and SPD vote.

[DL]

I wonder if the SPD might gain some ground once they settle on a candidate for Chancellor?

[DL]

What would be the biggest differences between the current CDU/FDP government where the CDU has the vast majority of the power - and a likely new "grand coalition" where the SPD would have to be given close to half of the cabinet portfolios?

[DL]

Which party benefits most from the decline of the Pirates? In other words where are their former supporters migrating to?

[DL]

Maybe the Pirate Party can try positioning itself as the anti-EU party and get a new lease on life!

[DL]

Does the FDP vote have a chance of picking up if some of it's former supporters realise it won't make it back into the Bundestag in the final weeks of the campaign?

I consider this very likely , yes. Wouldn't be the first time.

Though in this case its abundantly clear that it doesn't really matter if the FDP gets over or under the 5% barrier - they will have no where near enough seats to recreate the CDU-FDP coalition so they won't be part of the game. What possible incentive is there for a CDU voter to cast a strategic vote for the FDP when it doesn't really matter?

[DL]

I notice that as the Pirate "wave" recedes, support for the CDU is rising. Are there really that many Pirate/CDU switchers?

[DL]

What would motivate a CDU voter to cast a "tactical" vote to save the FDP? Its not as if there is the slightest chance that even if the FDP gets into the Bundestag there will anything close to a majority for CDU/FDP (what I like to call "the bumblebee coalition") - anyways you sl;ice it there will be a CDU/SPD "grand coalition" and the only question mark is in what proportion the CDU and SPD each get cabinet portfolios.

[DL]

I suppose that another by-product of the FDP slipping back into parliament is it would make it less likely that a CDU/Green coalition could be formed...if that is your top priority...but realistically just about the only way Germany gets a red/green coalition is it the FDP, the Pirates AND the Linke fail to clear the 5% hurdle!