UK local by-elections 2012
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #125 on: May 10, 2012, 05:55:31 PM »
« edited: May 11, 2012, 11:04:31 AM by ObserverIE »

South Oxfordshire, Chinnor

Con 48.3 (-1.4)
Ind 36.7 (+1.8 )
Lab 15.0 (-0.4)

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Kidsgrove

Lab 68.1 (+1.8 )
Con 12.9 (+0.3)
Lib Dem 11.2 (-0.9)
TUSC 7.8 (-1.2)

Argyll and Bute, Dunoon

Ind Walsh 32.8 (+8.2)
SNP 28.0 (+4.4)
Ind McQueen 18.3 (-3.4)
Lab 12.5 (+2.2)
Lib Dem 4.4 (-3.0)
Con 4.0 (-2.9)
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joevsimp
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« Reply #126 on: May 11, 2012, 02:08:59 AM »

chinnor's a bit close to me, reminds me that I really need to register after moving
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« Reply #127 on: May 11, 2012, 05:49:16 AM »

Dunoon first preferences:
Dick Walsh  Ind  777
Michael Breslin  SNP  663
Jimmy McQueen  Ind  432
Mick Rice  Lab  296
Tony Miles  LD  105
William Green  C  94

Quota was 592: Walsh and Breslin elected on first preferences, McQueen elected on transfers.
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« Reply #128 on: May 23, 2012, 05:12:20 PM »

This time I'll actually get the Holy Word out.  The lean period for by-elections following the ordinary May elections continues, with a single by-election in Cumberland on 24th May.

ASPATRIA AND WHARRELS, Cumbria County Council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Mike Johnson, who is now employed by the county council on its highways team and therefore ineligible to be a councillor.  He had previously been working for the roads contractor Amey but the county council has brought its highways work in-house.

This county division covers some rather beautiful countryside running from the small town of Aspatria, on the Maryport-Carlisle railway, south into the Lake District national park as far as the northern edge of Keswick.  The division includes Skiddaw, England's fourth-highest mountain.  One of the villages included in the ward is Bassenthwaite, which gives its name to the Lake District's only actual Lake (all the other bodies of water are called Meres, Tarns and so on).

The division was first created on its current boundaries in 2001, and was a very close fight between the Conservatives and Labour, the Tories eventually winning by just 20 votes.  The Conservative majority greatly increased over the next two elections, reaching 719 over Labour by the 2009 election, after which this division's councillor Jim Buchanan became Leader of the Council.  Unfortunately he served as leader for just ten months until his death in April 2010, shortly after being diagnosed with cancer.  Mike Johnson easily won the resulting byelection, which bizarrely was a straight fight between the Conservatives and the Green Party.  His resignation has caused a second by-election in this division within two years.

Analysis of the district council results in the area would suggest that the main area of Labour strength is Aspatria, which had coal-mining many years ago and can still poll a good Labour vote, although the ward has returned two Independent councillors since 2007.  The two rural wards in the division, Boltons and Wharrels, are often unopposed (the area is part of the west Cumbria Allerdale district, based on Workington, which tends to have a lot of unopposed returns) but were both contested last year: the long-serving Independent councillor for Boltons ward was easily re-elected in a straight fight with the Conservatives; while in Wharrels the Conservative councillor had little trouble beating off competition from Labour, Lib Dem and Green candidates to be re-elected with 57%, but Labour came a respectable second with 31%.

While the Conservatives are probably favoured to hold the ward, as can be seen there isn't a lot to go on from recent election results.  The defending Conservative candidate is Jim Lister, who represents Solway ward on Allerdale district council.  Another district councillor standing is Bill Finlay, one of the two Independent councillors for Aspatria ward, who has attacked Lister over who should take the credit for saving an Aspatria care home from a recent closure proposal by the county council.  The Labour candidate is Brian Cope, who fought Wharrels ward last year and had the aforementioned good result; the Lib Dems' Phill Roberts fought Aspatria ward last year; and the Green Party candidate is David Bober.

Sept 2010 by-election C 823 Grn 342
June 2009 result C 1276 Lab 557 LD 413
May 2005 result C 1609 Lab 997 LD 717
June 2001 result C 1467 Lab 1447 LD 527
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #129 on: May 24, 2012, 06:04:03 PM »

Cumbria, Aspatria and Wharrels (changes in italics from 2010 by-election)

Con 34.7 (-22.1) (-31.9)
Lab 28.9 (+4.1) (+28.9)
Ind 21.7 (+21.7) (+21.7)
Lib Dem 11.5 (-6.9) (+11.5)
Green 3.2 (+3.2) (-30.2)

(from Twitter)
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« Reply #130 on: May 30, 2012, 05:03:42 PM »

'Before the Roman came to Rye or out to Severn strode,
The rolling English drunkard made the rolling English road.
A reeling road, a rolling road, that rambles round the shire,
And after him the parson ran, the sexton and the squire;
A merry road, a mazy road, and as such we did tread
The night we went to Birmingham by way of Beachy Head.'
    - G K Chesterton, The Rolling English Road

This post will be a rolling ramble around England to describe the five by-elections on 31st May.  Like the poem, we start off with a Roman connection in Gloucestershire's Fosseridge ward; wend our merry way to seats in Barnet and Bournemouth recently vacated by former council leaders; and we finish by going by way of Beachy Head, not to Birmingham, but to Sc**nthorpe.  The Sc**nthorpe vacancy is a Labour defence while the Conservatives are trying to hold the other four by-elections.


FOSSERIDGE, Cotswold district council, Gloucestershire; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Michele Jeffrey, who is moving to Nottingham to become a trainee barrister.

Fosseridge is the only rural ward in this week's selection, and it has a rather curious shape, surrounding the Cotswold town of Moreton-in-Marsh on three sides.  The ward runs from Broadwell in the south through Bourton-on-the-Hill to the west around to Todenham in the north-east, and includes five other parishes in between (Donnington, Longborough, Condicote, Sezincote and Batsford).  The A429 Fosse Way, the old Roman road from Exeter to Lincoln, cuts the ward into three parts and gives its name to the ward.

This ward is a very safe Conservative area in a safe Conservative Parliamentary constituency, although it has elected three different councillors in the last three elections.  The ward was left uncontested in 2003 and 2007, and in 2011 the Conservatives beat the Lib Dems by an embarassment.

The by-election has attracted three candidates.  Julian Beale, about whom I have no information, is the Conservative candidate; he faces opposition from 20-year-old Liberal Democrat candidate Danny Loveridge and independent candidate Chris Turner, who fought the neighbouring Beacon-Stow ward last year.

Gloucestershire County Council division: Moreton-Stow
Parliamentary constituency: The Cotswolds
ONS Travel to Work Area: Cheltenham and Evesham

Julian Beale (C)
Danny Loveridge (LD)
Chris Turner (Ind)

May 2011 result C 638 LD 173
May 2007 result C unopposed
May 2003 result C unopposed


BRUNSWICK PARK, London Borough of Barnet; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Lynne Hillan at the age of 63.  A founder-director of a marketing company, Hillan served as Leader of the Council from 2009 to 2011, creating headlines with the controversial One Barnet programme under which many council services were outsourced in a similar way to budget airlines' cheap and cheerful ethos, leading to the project being nicknamed 'easyCouncil'.

The Brunswick Park ward is the most easterly in Barnet, hard up against the border with Enfield and lying on the eastern side of the East Coast Main Line which is the ward's western boundary.  It's a generally middle-class area centred on the New Southgate Cemetery.  There are no railway or Underground stations within the ward but the East Coast Main Line stations of New Southgate and Oakleigh Park (three trains per hour to Moorgate) are close to the western end of the ward, while the eastern end is served by the Underground stations at Arnos Grove and Southgate on the Piccadilly Line.  The ward is split between the N14 (Southgate) and N11 (New Southgate) postal districts.

In the last three Barnet council elections this was a safe Conservative ward and it forms part of a safe Conservative parliamentary constituency (Chipping Barnet).  The ward, of course, voted in the Greater London Assembly election just four weeks ago and the breakdown of the votes from this ward is interesting; Brunswick Park voted heavily for Boris for Mayor (Boris 51.4% Ken 33.5%) but the GLA list vote was close between the two main parties (C 37.4% Lab 35.9%) and Labour actually carried the ward in the poll for the Barnet and Camden constituency (Lab 40.9% C 34.3%).  The reason for this last result would appear to be that the defending Conservative candidate for the GLA constituency was Brian Coleman who had become very unpopular after being involved in a series of controversies, not least spending thousands of pounds of GLA expenses on taxi fares.

The by-election is a fight between just the three main parties.  The Conservative defence is led by Southgate resident Shaheen Mahmood, executive secretary of the Conservative Muslim Forum; her main challenge will come from the Hendon-based Labour candidate Andreas Ioannidis, who runs a small catering business in Central London and has had much favourable publicity in London's Greek Cypriot newspapers.  The ballot paper is completed by Liberal Democrat candidate Yahaya Kiingi, from Edgware.

Parliamentary constituency: Chipping Barnet
GLA constituency: Barnet and Camden
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Andreas Ioannidis (Lab)
Yahaya Kiingi (LD)
Shaheen Mahmood (C)

May 2010 result C 3496/3353/3307 Lab 1994/1937/1758 LD 1289/1217/1066 Grn 548/431/409
May 2006 result C 2827/2722/2636 Lab 680/609/600 LD 618/584/515 Grn 427 UKIP 246/224/213
May 2002 result C 2278/2269/2267 Lab 1627/1494/1488 LD 463/443/323 Grn 257
2012 GLA elections (excludes postal votes)
Mayor: Boris 1743 Ken 1137 Benita 142 Grn 136 LD 124 UKIP 73 BNP 37
List: C 1268 Lab 1217 Grn 274 UKIP 225 LD 202 CPA 66 BNP 53 TUSC 28 EDP 26 Hayat 11 House Party 9 NF 7 Alagaratnam 6
Constituency: Lab 1380 C 1161 Grn 306 LD 291 UKIP 238
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« Reply #131 on: May 30, 2012, 05:06:25 PM »

(cont)

REDHILL AND NORTHBOURNE, Bournemouth council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Peter Charon, apparently for business reasons and family commitments.  He had been leader of the council until January this year when he was deposed by the Conservative group.

The Redhill and Northbourne ward covers a residential tract on the northern edge of the South Coast resort of Bournemouth.  It runs to the west of Redhill Park and to the south of the Stour Valley.  (As you might guess from this description, I know nothing whatsoever about Bournemouth.)

This ward covers some of Bournemouth's least deprived areas, but that demographic makeup didn't translate to a safe Conservative ward for the council leader.  Redhill and Northbourne returned three Lib Dem councillors in 2003 before Peter Charon gained a seat in 2007 and split the three seats 2LD/1C.  The three councillors were re-elected last year with Charon topping the poll; for some reason there were only two Liberal Democrat candidates last year for the three seats.  Since then Sue Levell, one of the ward's Lib Dem councillors, has gone Independent.

For some reason this by-election has attracted an enormous field, with nine candidates on the ballot paper.  The Conservative candidate is letting agency manager David d'Orton-Gibson, who fought this ward unsuccessfully last year.  The Liberal Democrats have selected Pat Lewis, who lost her council seat last year in the neighbouring Kinson North ward; confusingly another Lib Dem councillor who lost her seat in Kinson North last year, Claire Smith, is standing as an independent with Cllr Levell's endorsement.  The Labour candidate is Jo Kennedy, who fought this ward as an Independent last year and had a very good result, finishing sixth not far short of d'Orton-Gibson; she runs a local hairdressing salon.  Also on the ballot paper are Sandra Hale of the Green Party, Colin Smith of the BNP and independent candidates Paul Graham and Peter Woodley.  There was going to be a tenth candidate, Steve Bartlett, who was nominated as an independent candidate, but he withdrew before the deadline.

Parliamentary constituency: Bournemouth West
ONS Travel to Work Area: Bournemouth

Nicholas Atkinson (UKIP)
David d'Orton-Gibson (C)
Paul Graham (Ind)
Sandra Hale (Grn)
Jo Kennedy (Lab)
Pat Lewis (LD)
Claire Smith (Ind)
Colin Smith (BNP)
Peter Woodley (Ind)

May 2011 result C 1363/1147/1079 LD 1278/1189 Ind 1027 Lab 539
May 2007 result LD 1277/1272/1103 C 1214/1162/1066 UKIP 302 Ind 263 Lab 176/168
May 2003 result LD 1290/1281/1275 C 720/720/660 Ind 538 Lab 307/256


MEADS, Eastbourne borough council, East Sussex; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Nigel Goodyear who wants to stand as an independent for the post of Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner.

Meads ward has a reputation for being the smart end of the seaside resort of Eastbourne.  Much of it was developed in the Victorian era by the Duke of Devonshire, who owned the land, at the same time as the rest of the resort was being developed; with the Victorian hotels and bandstand along the seafront, the shoreline of the ward is probably little changed visually since then.  The ward covers the southern end of town and its population is hemmed into the eastern corner of the ward by the steep South Downs, which terminate here in the chalk cliffs of Beachy Head, allegedly the world's third most popular suicide spot.  Since 2011 the ward has been the eastern end of the South Downs National Park.

Eastbourne council has been closely fought between the Lib Dems and Conservatives for many years, with the Lib Dems most recently holding the upper hand having gained the parliamentary seat in 2010 and holding their majority on the council last year.  Meads ward is the strongest of the borough's nine wards for the Conservatives and is not normally seriously contested by the Lib Dems.

The defending Conservative candidate is school inspector Caroline Ansell who fought the borough's Hampden Park ward last year.  She faces opposition from Lib Dem candidate Gerard Thompson, Labour candidate Dennis Scard (who fought this ward last year), UKIP candidate Ian Cameron (who also fought this ward last year) and Independent candidate Keith Gell, who last year was an also-ran in the borough's Devonshire ward.

East Sussex county council division: Meads (coterminous)
Parliamentary constituency: Eastbourne
ONS Travel to Work Area: Eastbourne

Caroline Ansell (C)
Ian Cameron (UKIP)
Keith Gell (Ind)
Dennis Scard (Lab)
Gerard Thompson (LD)

May 2011 result C 2239/2232/2126 LD 797/766/734 Grn 414/361 Lab 411/373/349 UKIP 404
May 2007 result C 2407/2387/2329 LD 729/692/681 Grn 457/375/299 Lab 220
May 2006 result C 2440 LD 756 Grn 306 Lab 173
June 2004 result C 2672 LD 589 Grn 271 Lab 221
May 2003 result C 2202 LD 518 Lab 216 Grn 154
May 2002 result C 2001/1967/1949 LD 731/686/662 Grn 351 Lab 280 UKIP 174/129


TOWN, North Lincolnshire council; caused by the death of Labour councillor Darrell Barkworth who had been a councillor for 21 years, initially on Humberside County Council, and had served as Mayor of North Lincolnshire.

Sc**nthorpe, the town which fails to pass the spam filter, is like Eastbourne a town almost entirely developed in the Victorian era.  But that's where the similarity ends, as Sc**nthorpe is a heavily industrial town whose economy is still based on steel, with Tata Industries running an enormous steelworks in the town; other industries in the town include distribution and food production.

The Town ward is a section through the town from west to east with the ward's southern boundary being the railway line.  The ward includes the town centre, the bus station and the railway station (hourly trains east to Grimsby and Cleethorpes, two trains per hour west to Doncaster and Sheffield).  Apart from the western end of the ward around the Kingsway Golf Course this is a very deprived area, with three of the ward's five census areas being in the most deprived 20% in England.  The ward has a relatively high ethnic minority population for Lincolnshire, with 11% of the population identifying themselves as Muslim and 8% as Bangladeshi in the 2001 census.

North Lincolnshire district as a whole includes just a large enough rural area to produce interesting battles for council control, although the Conservative margin of victory in the 2003 election will never be surpassed for closeness: the council split C 22 Lab 21 and that 22nd Conservative seat was won by one vote.  Since then the council has swung against the national tide, with a Labour gain in 2007 and a Conservative gain last year; this was the only council gained by the Conservatives last year, a result which might have been something to do with the scandal which ended the political career of Sc**nthorpe's former Labour MP Elliot Morley, who pleaded guilty to false accounting just before the 2011 election.  Town ward is safe Labour but the majority has ebbed and flowed in tandem with those results, and last year the Labour majority fell from 32 points to 12 points.

The defending Labour candidate for the by-election is Haque Kataria, who last year fought the hopeless ward of Axholme South.  Abdul Wadud is the Conservative candidate, and the only other candidate standing is Douglas Ward who has the BNP nomination.

Parliamentary constituency: Sc**nthorpe
ONS Travel to Work Area: Sc**nthorpe

Haque Kataria (Lab)
Abdul Wadud (C)
Douglas Ward (BNP)

May 2011 result Lab 1045/930 C 790/755 Grn 276
May 2007 result Lab 990/892 C 444/362 BNP 250
May 2003 result Lab 1288/1078 C 720/580 LD 450 Socialist Alliance 276

There are no by-elections in Jubilee week so the next preview will be in advance of the six by-elections scheduled for 14th June.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #132 on: May 31, 2012, 05:19:00 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2012, 06:40:18 PM by ObserverIE »

Cotswold, Fosseridge

Con 59.9 (-18.8 )
Lib Dem 25.3 (+4.0)
Ind 14.8 (+14.8 )

North Lincolnshire, Town

Lab 50.9 (+2.4)
Con 42.7 (+4.8 )
BNP 6.4 (+6.4)

Bournemouth, Redhill and Northbourne

Con 26.7 (-3.2)
Lab 21.3 (+7.8 )
Lib Dem 16.8 (-14.1)
Ind Smith 15.8 (+15.8 )
UKIP 13.0 (+13.0)
Green 2.1 (+2.1)
Ind Woodley 2.0 (+2.0)
BNP 1.7 (+1.7)
Ind Graham 0.6 (+0.6)

Eastbourne, Meads

Con 59.7 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 15.6 (-2.9)
UKIP 10.8 (+1.0)
Lab 10.7 (+1.6)
Ind 3.3 (+3.3)

Barnet, Brunswick Park

Lab 51.1 (+23.8 )
Con 46.1 (-2.7)
Lib Dem 2.8 (-14.4)
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« Reply #133 on: May 31, 2012, 06:47:40 PM »

Barnet vote is delicious. Was going to conclude it was a good night for the Tories as well(!)
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« Reply #134 on: May 31, 2012, 07:07:06 PM »

Quote
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WTF is this FPTP madness?
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« Reply #135 on: June 14, 2012, 04:10:16 PM »

The Holy Word for this week
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #136 on: June 14, 2012, 07:42:54 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2012, 07:08:24 AM by ObserverIE »

South Bucks, Iver Heath

Con 61.0 (-10.8 )
UKIP 29.6 (+29.6)
Lib Dem 9.4 (-18.8 )

Gwynedd, Bryncrug/Llanfihangel

Ind Lawton 42.4
PC 27.2
Ind Pughe 13.2
Ind Clarke 10.2
Llais 7.0

Oldham, Failsworth East

Lab 79.0 (-5.9)
UKIP 13.8 (+13.8 )
Lib Dem 7.2 (-7.9)

East Northamptonshire, Barnwell

Con 64.1
Lib Dem 20.2
Lab 15.7

Kent, Tunbridge Wells East

Con 32.3 (-17.0)
Lib Dem 28.2 (-3.6)
UKIP 27.6 (+15.4)
Lab 8.9 (+2.2)
Green 3.0 (+3.0)

Wealden, Frant and Withyham

Con 72.2 (+18.5)
Lab 17.0 (-0.1)
Lib Dem 10.8 (+10.8 )
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« Reply #137 on: June 14, 2012, 07:49:14 PM »

Iver Heath doesn't really sound like my type of place....
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #138 on: June 14, 2012, 07:59:25 PM »

Tunbridge Wells neither, but then you knew that already.

Amusing detail about the contest (?) in Failsworth: Tories actually won the ward in 2008.
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« Reply #139 on: June 14, 2012, 08:07:38 PM »


(Insert cheap and hackish joke about the ward's name here)
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« Reply #140 on: June 15, 2012, 09:31:47 AM »

Don't know what's more disappointing about the Frant result - that there were no Green candidates, or that Labour actually went backwards even with their absence. Tunbridge Wells East was a pretty dire result as well.
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« Reply #141 on: June 15, 2012, 11:45:45 AM »


(Insert cheap and hackish joke about the ward's name here)
The even worthier fail was in 2008.
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« Reply #142 on: June 21, 2012, 04:45:47 PM »

Holy Word for this week
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« Reply #143 on: June 21, 2012, 06:11:49 PM »

Peterlee West: Labour 70.1, Ind 16.5, LDem 9.0, Con 4.3

Labour gain from LDem.
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« Reply #144 on: June 21, 2012, 06:30:46 PM »

lololololol
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #145 on: June 21, 2012, 07:07:10 PM »
« Edited: June 21, 2012, 09:59:14 PM by ObserverIE »

Carlisle, Harraby

Lab 63.1 (-0.5)
Con 17.8 (-2.0)
UKIP 8.9 (+0.3)
Lib Dem 7.0 (+3.0)
Green 3.1 (-0.9)

West Devon, Tavistock North (changes in italics since March 2012 by-election for the other seat in the ward)

Con 37.2 (+4.3) (+14.9)
Ind 22.0 (-5.2) (-13.5)
Lab 20.9 (+3.8 ) (+10.0)
Lib Dem 19.9 (-2.9) (+0.3)

Elmbridge, Esher

Con 47.5 (-5.8 )
Residents 44.4 (+2.8 )
Lab 6.1 (+0.9)
UKIP 2.0 (+2.0)

Durham, Peterlee West

Lab 70.1 (+26.7)
Ind 16.5 (+16.5)
Lib Dem 9.0 (-47.6)
Con 4.3 (+4.3)

Dacorum, Woodhall Farm

Con 49.0 (-16.3)
Lab 35.1 (+10.3)
Lib Dem 6.1 (-3.8 )
Eng Dem 4.1 (+4.1)
UKIP 3.7 (+3.7)
Green 2.1 (+2.1)

Dudley, Norton

Con 51.2 (+3.1)
Lab 23.6 (-0.9)
Lib Dem 9.6 (+2.3)
UKIP 8.5 (-5.0)
Green 5.3 (-1.3)
NF 1.7 (+1.7)

Huntingdonshire, Earith

Con 43.6 (-18.1)
UKIP 36.3 (+26.8 )
Lab 8.0 (-6.7)
Lib Dem 7.6 (-6.5)
MRLP 4.5 (+4.5)

Hertfordshire, Hemel Hempstead Town

Con 47.8 (-3.0)
Lab 23.5 (+8.8 )
Lib Dem 15.4 (-5.8 )
Green 6.1 (-7.1)
UKIP 5.1 (+5.1)
Ind 2.1 (+2.1)
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« Reply #146 on: June 21, 2012, 09:17:04 PM »

Poor results in Herts and Hunts, but much better elsewhere.
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« Reply #147 on: June 22, 2012, 01:56:52 AM »

Poor results in Herts and Hunts, but much better elsewhere.

Odd difference in the Herts results, actually, with Labour doing well in the Dacorum district seat (13% swing since 2011) but badly in the county council seat (less than 6% swing since 2009).

As for Hunts, Earith is in the Fens, so I wouldn't expect it to vote like a normal place.
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« Reply #148 on: June 28, 2012, 01:56:54 PM »

Holy Word for tonight
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« Reply #149 on: June 28, 2012, 05:14:43 PM »
« Edited: June 28, 2012, 09:10:55 PM by ObserverIE »

Charnwood, Sileby

Con 55.1 (-9.0)
Lab 35.3 (-0.6)
BNP 7.3 (+7.3)
Lib Dem 2.3 (+2.3)

South Northamptonshire, Grange Park

Con 76.2 (+2.6)
Lib Dem 23.8 (+23.8 )

Kensington and Chelsea, Brompton (figures in italics represent change since June 2011 by-election)

Con 70.3 (+1.4) (-9.3)
Lab 11.2 (-0.9) (+0.2)
Lib Dem 10.9 (-8.3) (+1.5)
UKIP 7.7 (+7.7) (+7.7)

Blaby, Ravenhurst and Fosse

Lab 68.4 (+10.1)
Con 31.6 (-10.1)

Chelmsford, Patching Hall

Lib Dem 44.3 (+6.2)
Con 25.7 (-6.9)
Lab 16.2 (+0.1)
UKIP 13.8 (+13.8 )

Essex, Chelmsford North

Lib Dem 42.2 (-4.5)
Con 24.6 (-7.4)
Lab 18.6 (+10.8 )
UKIP 11.4 (+11.4)
Green 3.3 (-4.0)
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