Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 01, 2014, 04:51:36 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: PASOK Leader Hashemite)
| | |-+  UK local by-elections 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 Print
Author Topic: UK local by-elections 2012  (Read 19446 times)
MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8652
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #175 on: August 17, 2012, 02:44:34 pm »
Ignore

Tendring, St Bartholomews (changes since Mar 2012 by-election in italics)

Residents 87.8 (+14.5) (+15.1)
Con 12.2 (-14.5) (-7.1)
Fascinating. One wonders about the national ramifications of this result.

Improssive, since the election was to replace the Resident who won in March and resigned.
Logged
joevsimp
Full Member
***
Posts: 234


Political Matrix
E: -5.95, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #176 on: August 18, 2012, 04:14:17 am »
Ignore

Tendring, St Bartholomews (changes since Mar 2012 by-election in italics)

Residents 87.8 (+14.5) (+15.1)
Con 12.2 (-14.5) (-7.1)
Fascinating. One wonders about the national ramifications of this result.

Clacton's a weird place, not as weird as Stoke on Trent, but the whole Tendring coast is just slightly odd in lots of differentways
Improssive, since the election was to replace the Resident who won in March and resigned.
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #177 on: August 18, 2012, 04:28:17 am »
Ignore

I was being facetious. A Residents vs Conservatives by-election is about as irrelevant (unless control of the council is involved) as things can possibly get, and the result suggests a clear difference in candidate quality visible to all.
I didn't even read the Holy Word on it.
"The problem with irony is that not everybody gets it" [quote Ray Wylie Hubbard, as introduction to his wonderful song "Screw you, we're from Texas"]
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56234
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #178 on: August 18, 2012, 05:49:05 am »
Ignore

I was being facetious. A Residents vs Conservatives by-election is about as irrelevant (unless control of the council is involved)

...and even then...
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3181
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #179 on: August 18, 2012, 11:02:38 am »
Ignore

I've asked this before, but what's the deal with Residents/Ratepayers Associations? Did they fall under the anti-socialist or the Independent category in the post-war period? Presumably they vary too - I know the Solihull Ratepayers association are linked to the Taxpayers Alliance, but surely they aren't all as right-wing?
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56234
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #180 on: August 18, 2012, 12:48:01 pm »
Ignore

They started springing up in the 20s and 30s in order to oppose Wasteful Socialist Spending in municipal affairs. Which was ridiculous given Labour's weakness in local government outside the coalfields and extreme concentrations of heavy industry during the period, but privet hedges have a hallucinogenic effect on people or something. They were generally Ratepayers Associations back then; the switch to Residents Associations came about after the Thatchermajor government did what it did to local government finance. A related, though different and very much extinct, phenomenon were local Anti Socialist parties in county boroughs and larger urban districts where Labour were strong, or at least strong enough to cause concern about vote splitting. These were generally coalitions of Tories, Liberals and assorted local business interests and went by a wide variety of different names in different places; 'Progressives' (especially in Scottish burghs, but also on Tyneside), 'Anti-Socialists', 'Moderates', 'Citizens', etc. The older Conservative local machines in Birmingham ('Unionists') and London ('Municipal Reform') sort of became like that in practice, even if their roots were quite different.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Gary J
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 79
United Kingdom
View Profile
« Reply #181 on: August 18, 2012, 07:10:49 pm »
Ignore

An example of how party politics infiltrated the smaller urban areas in England, is what happened in Slough.

Slough Urban District Council had strong Labour results, in several elections before the First World War. It may be that traditional Independent candidates, contesting polls as individuals, had a problem dealing with even a comparatively weak party organisation. Labour did not have such success again until the post Second World War era, by when the town was much bigger and a Municipal Borough (given Borough status in 1938).

After the War, when local elections resumed, local politicians opposed to Labour reorganised themselves. There was a group, who still contested elections as Independents, but were actually a local political party combining national Conservatives and Liberals in an effective anti-Labour alliance. They had ties to a national federation. The occasional genuine Independent candidate tended to poll very few votes.

It was after the Second World War that first Conservative and then Liberal party candidates began to challenge the Independents, who rapidly declined and disappeared. The last Independent Councillor was elected in 1950, without Conservative opposition. The last Independent Alderman, in the early 1950s, was only reelected for his last term after promising to follow the Conservative party line in the Council chamber.
Logged
ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #182 on: August 30, 2012, 05:41:30 pm »
Ignore

Bridgend, Bettws

Lab 79.9 (+3.6)
Ind 15.5 (+15.5)
Green 2.6 (-21.1)
Con 1.9 (+1.9)

(via https://twitter.com/DRC1649/status/241292519747489792)
« Last Edit: August 31, 2012, 06:05:13 am by ObserverIE »Logged

joevsimp
Full Member
***
Posts: 234


Political Matrix
E: -5.95, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #183 on: September 01, 2012, 08:46:43 am »
Ignore

Bridgend, Bettws

Lab 79.9 (+3.6)
Ind 15.5 (+15.5)
Green 2.6 (-21.1)
Con 1.9 (+1.9)

(via https://twitter.com/DRC1649/status/241292519747489792)

that's a pretty steep drop but how did the greens manage to get 23.7% in Bridgend, was it just us, Labour and the Tories?
Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #184 on: September 01, 2012, 08:58:15 am »
Ignore

Bridgend, Bettws

Lab 79.9 (+3.6)
Ind 15.5 (+15.5)
Green 2.6 (-21.1)
Con 1.9 (+1.9)

(via https://twitter.com/DRC1649/status/241292519747489792)

that's a pretty steep drop but how did the greens manage to get 23.7% in Bridgend, was it just us, Labour and the Tories?
Yes, except without Tories.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #185 on: September 01, 2012, 04:30:53 pm »
Ignore

Bridgend, Bettws

Lab 79.9 (+3.6)
Ind 15.5 (+15.5)
Green 2.6 (-21.1)
Con 1.9 (+1.9)

(via https://twitter.com/DRC1649/status/241292519747489792)

that's a pretty steep drop but how did the greens manage to get 23.7% in Bridgend, was it just us, Labour and the Tories?
Yes, except without Tories.

The "anyone but Labour" vote has coalesced around the available candidate, and in May, the Greens were "it":

2004: Lab 70.7 Ind 17.2 Lib Dem 12.2
2008: Lab 82.3 Lib Dem 17.7
2012: Lab 76.3 Green 23.7
Logged

Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
andrewteale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 571
Belgium


View Profile WWW
« Reply #186 on: September 01, 2012, 06:38:32 pm »
Ignore

I did write a Holy Word for Bettws but it seems Britain-Votes never published it.
Logged

http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #187 on: September 06, 2012, 05:58:05 am »
Ignore

The Holy Word returns.
Logged

joevsimp
Full Member
***
Posts: 234


Political Matrix
E: -5.95, S: -4.00

View Profile
« Reply #188 on: September 06, 2012, 01:10:54 pm »
Ignore

Bridgend, Bettws

Lab 79.9 (+3.6)
Ind 15.5 (+15.5)
Green 2.6 (-21.1)
Con 1.9 (+1.9)

(via https://twitter.com/DRC1649/status/241292519747489792)

that's a pretty steep drop but how did the greens manage to get 23.7% in Bridgend, was it just us, Labour and the Tories?
Yes, except without Tories.

The "anyone but Labour" vote has coalesced around the available candidate, and in May, the Greens were "it":

2004: Lab 70.7 Ind 17.2 Lib Dem 12.2
2008: Lab 82.3 Lib Dem 17.7
2012: Lab 76.3 Green 23.7

i'm impressed that they managed more than the lib dems had 4 years before
Logged
Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3181
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #189 on: September 06, 2012, 03:32:14 pm »
Ignore

On a poor turnout though; the Liberals got 101 votes to the Greens' 85.
Logged

ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #190 on: September 06, 2012, 05:38:40 pm »
Ignore

South Gloucestershire, Dodington

Lib Dem 56.9 (-7.7)
Lab 17.6 (+3.6)
UKIP 15.4 (+15.4)
Con 10.1 (-11.3)

West Lindsey, Nettleham

Con 45.0 (+8.3)
Lib Dem 40.9 (-22.4)
UKIP 14.1 (+14.1)
« Last Edit: September 07, 2012, 10:19:08 am by ObserverIE »Logged

Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3181
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #191 on: September 06, 2012, 10:06:45 pm »
Ignore

Lincolnshire, Nettleham & Saxilby:

Con 43.4% (+9.5)
Lib 25.3% (-35.2)
UKI 11.2% (+11.2)
Lab 10.9% (+5.4)
Ind  8.3% (+8.3)
EDP  0.9% (+0.9)

changes since 2009.
Logged

YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1137
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #192 on: September 07, 2012, 02:00:02 am »
Ignore

The Lincolnshire Lib Dem performances suggest the collapse of a personal vote for the councillor who died, but reading the Holy Word suggests the Lib Dem strength in the area wasn't just down to him; maybe the local organisation has collapsed as well.
Logged

ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #193 on: September 07, 2012, 10:20:23 am »
Ignore

The Lincolnshire Lib Dem performances suggest the collapse of a personal vote for the councillor who died, but reading the Holy Word suggests the Lib Dem strength in the area wasn't just down to him; maybe the local organisation has collapsed as well.

The Tory candidates were local; the Lib Dem candidates weren't, which probably didn't help.
Logged

ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #194 on: September 13, 2012, 04:52:01 pm »
Ignore

Holy Word for this week here.

Breckland, Thetford-Abbey

Lab 49.3 (+27.5)
Con 18.9 (-1.6)
UKIP 17.3 (+17.3)
Lib Dem 14.6 (-3.9)

Burnley, Trinity

Lab 49.3 (-8.7)
Lib Dem 25.6 (-5.8 )
Con 9.6 (+9.6)
BNP 9.5 (-1.1)
UKIP 3.5 (+3.5)
NF 2.6 (+2.6)

Shropshire, Church Stretton and Craven Arms

Con 44.8 (+13.9)
Lib Dem 35.7 (+11.8 )
Lab 19.5 (+7.3)

Charnwood, Loughborough Southfields

Con 48.6 (+11.4)
Lab 46.6 (-3.4)
Lib Dem 4.9 (-7.9)
« Last Edit: September 14, 2012, 05:30:33 am by ObserverIE »Logged

Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3181
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #195 on: September 14, 2012, 09:09:25 am »
Ignore

A mixed picture for Labour, with a fair reason to be happy about the Burnley and Breckland results (the swing Right in the latter is easily accounted for their not contesting last year). The Shropshire and Charnwood results seem disappointing on the face of it, however. The Charnwood - evidently because of Liberal squeeze and small drop in Labour allowed the Tories to gain it for the first time in over a decade (without that small drop, you could write it off as something that couldn't be helped - the Right uniting successfully under the most competitive). The Shropshire, because a Green and Independent absence is usually an opportunity for Labour, but their 7% increase was only a quarter of that absence - with the Liberals and Tories gaining more (although without more results than 2009, it's difficult to judge how much opportunity there really was).
Logged

doktorb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 999
United Kingdom


View Profile WWW
« Reply #196 on: September 14, 2012, 09:45:21 am »
Ignore

Very happy to see the Burnley result.  Bye bye BNP and *snigger* NF
Logged

My blog - http://www.liampennington.blogspot.com

Twitter - @doktorb
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56234
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #197 on: September 14, 2012, 10:28:07 am »
Ignore

Regarding Church Stretton & Craven Arms, 20% probably isn't far off the Labour ceiling in most circumstances. Craven Arms is a town with a fair bit of Labour potential, but it's only about a third of the division (and generally the lowest turnout, unless I'm misremembering things), and the rest is a Labour dead zone where the Party struggled to poll much better than 10% in good years before the advent of tactical voting in South Shropshire. The Green vote in the division is basically all from Stretton and votes overwhelmingly LibDem in General Elections, while the Independent from last time around was an incumbent Tory district councillor from one of the Stretton wards.

As someone who grew up nearby, I'm just amazed that a Labour candidate managed to poll a fifth of the vote in a division with 'Church Stretton' in its name, especially in the context of a clear Con/Lib battle - shows how things have changed since the formation of the National Government.

Anyways, the LibDems would likely have picked the seat up (national woes are what they are, but Tory run Shropshire Council is not popular; see other by-elections in Shropshire over the past couple of years) had they chosen a better candidate.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
ObserverIE
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 804
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -1.04

View Profile
« Reply #198 on: September 14, 2012, 11:31:43 am »
Ignore

East Dunbartonshire, Campsie and Kirkintilloch North

Lab 30.8 (+9.0)
SNP 26.9 (+6.6)
Lib Dem 25.0 (+22.6)
Ind 9.9 (-40.9)
Con 5.1 (+0.5)
Green 2.3 (+2.3)

Labour won the seat but no details of subsequent counts available yet.
Logged

only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58783
India


View Profile
« Reply #199 on: September 14, 2012, 11:57:48 am »
Ignore

a Labour dead zone where the Party struggled to poll much better than 10% in good years before the advent of tactical voting in South Shropshire.
Lol.

"Craven Arms" is a town? Sounds like a pub to me.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines