UK local by-elections 2012
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Author Topic: UK local by-elections 2012  (Read 50363 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #250 on: November 29, 2012, 06:29:02 PM »
« edited: November 30, 2012, 09:22:28 AM by ObserverIE »

Stratford-on-Avon, Shipston

Lab 40.4 (+11.6)
Lib Dem 37.9 (-5.4)
Con 21.8 (-2.6)

Southwark, East Walworth

Lab 53.4 (+10.3)
Lib Dem 42.6 (+5.2)
Con 4.0 (-7.0)

Na h-Eileanan Siar, Sgir'Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch

Ind Morrison 73.5
SNP 19.2
Ind Mac an Ultaigh 7.2
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #251 on: November 29, 2012, 06:31:29 PM »

what the f[inks]
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #252 on: November 29, 2012, 06:41:40 PM »


Holy Word may provide some assistance.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #253 on: November 30, 2012, 05:08:55 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2012, 05:15:03 AM by Minion of Midas »

Yeah, East Walworth is very underwhelming.

Oh. You probably meant the other one. Given that there's no Labour presence on that council at current, effectively they elected an Independent.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #254 on: December 06, 2012, 07:47:54 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2012, 07:31:33 AM by ObserverIE »

Neath Port Talbot, Neath South

Lab 75.4 (+17.2)
Lib Dem 24.6 (+24.6)

South Staffordshire, Wombourne North and Lower Penn

Con 59.3 (-5.2)
UKIP 26.7 (-8.8 )
Lab 14.0 (+14.0)

Brentwood, Shenfield

Lib Dem 50.7 (-3.3)
Con 38.8 (+0.1)
UKIP 8.3 (+8.3)
Lab 2.2 (-5.1)

Sutton, Stonecot

Lib Dem 53.3 (+3.3)
Con 20.7 (-12.2)
Lab 14.9 (+5.3)
UKIP 9.4 (+9.4)
Green 1.6 (+1.7)

Vale of White Horse, Sunninghill and Wootton

Lib Dem 62.4 (+29.3) (577, 549)
Con 37.6 (-6.4) (346, 333)

Cornwall, Gwinear-Gwithian and St. Erth

Con 35.3 (-2.8 )
Ind Furneaux 17.7 (-16.4)
Ind Roberts 17.3
Lib Dem 12.9 (-9.3)
Lab 8.1 (+2.5)
MK 6.2 (+6.2)
Ind Elliott 2.6
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #255 on: December 06, 2012, 07:49:32 PM »

So... Neath is not like Wombourne or Brentwood? Grin
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #256 on: December 06, 2012, 07:56:25 PM »

So... Neath is not like Wombourne or Brentwood? Grin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueZ6tvqhk8U

(Viewers of a Mitt Romney-ish disposition are advised not to click the link.)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #257 on: December 07, 2012, 05:05:25 AM »

How many votes is that, three?
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doktorb
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« Reply #258 on: December 07, 2012, 07:03:40 AM »

Ooh, feel the UKIP surge.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #259 on: December 07, 2012, 07:32:26 AM »


31. I think the Tories managed to get lower in one of the Newcastle by-elections.
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Gary J
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« Reply #260 on: December 07, 2012, 10:19:30 AM »

A remarkably good day of by-elections for the Lib Dems. This supports the thesis I was putting forward on the "will UKIP beat the Lib Dems in 2015" thread. The local election results support the idea that in some places Lib Dem support has collapsed and in others that they are still competitive. Individual by-elections will turn on local factors but the overall impression is (in my view) compelling and will translate to similarly patchy general election results.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #261 on: December 07, 2012, 12:43:58 PM »

A remarkably good day of by-elections for the Lib Dems. This supports the thesis I was putting forward on the "will UKIP beat the Lib Dems in 2015" thread. The local election results support the idea that in some places Lib Dem support has collapsed and in others that they are still competitive. Individual by-elections will turn on local factors but the overall impression is (in my view) compelling and will translate to similarly patchy general election results.

Two of those results from last night are in Lib Dem-held seats (Stonecot: Carshalton/Wallington and Gwinear, etc.:St Ives). The Carshalton result is good enough but the Cornish result is nothing special in a seat where the Lib Dem majority fell back sharply last time and they need to keep suppressing the Labour vote. The result in Sunninghill is good in one of their few realistic targets next time (Oxford West/Abingdon) but the Lib Dem candidates were both local whereas the Tories weren't and it was a straight fight with no alternative receptacles for a non-Tory vote.

I expect the Lib Dem constituency vote to be camel-shaped: one very large hump in the mid single figures and a much smaller hump around 30%+ in the seats they hold or are credible in. I'm not sure if there will be much in between.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #262 on: December 13, 2012, 06:12:47 PM »

Harrogate, Bilton

Lib Dem 46.0 (+8.8 )
Con 29.2 (-16.1)
Lab 15.4 (-2.1)
UKIP 9.4 (+9.4)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #263 on: December 20, 2012, 06:41:51 AM »
« Edited: December 20, 2012, 07:02:30 AM by ObserverIE »

Spelthorne, Sunbury Common

Lib Dem 46.6 (-9.0)
UKIP 22.8 (+5.0)
Lab 16.2 (+16.2)
Con 14.4 (-12.2)

Norwich, Crome

Lab 59.3 (-2.5)
Con 17.4 (-1.5)
UKIP 15.6 (+15.6)
Green 4.9 (-8.4)
Lib Dem 2.8 (-3.3)

Norwich, Nelson

Green 56.0 (-3.5)
Lab 29.9 (+4.7)
Lib Dem 8.7 (+2.4)
Con 5.4 (-3.6)
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joevsimp
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« Reply #264 on: December 20, 2012, 08:31:41 AM »

Spelthorne, Sunbury Common

Lib Dem 46.6 (-9.0)
UKIP 22.8 (+5.0)
Lab 16.2 (+16.2)
Con 14.4 (-12.2)

Norwich, Crome

Lab 59.3 (-2.5)
Con 17.4 (-1.5)
UKIP 15.6 (+15.6)
Green 4.9 (-8.4)
Lib Dem 2.8 (-3.3)

Norwich, Nelson

Green 56.0 (-3.5)
Lab 29.9 (+4.7)
Lib Dem 8.7 (+2.4)
Con 5.4 (-3.6)

what was the reason for the two in Norwich?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #265 on: December 20, 2012, 08:39:33 AM »

Resignations (health in the case of the Labour seat, political disagreement in the case of the Green one).
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Gary J
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« Reply #266 on: December 20, 2012, 10:00:32 AM »

Not much sign of Labour revival in Spelthorne. At least they managed to stand in the by-election, as they only conested one ward (which they lost) in the last whole Council election.

However UKIP outpolling the Conservatives is surprising. There may be local factors, I am not aware of, but it seems strange that both major national parties are polling so weakly in the same ward.

When I was involved in Spelthorne politics, about thirty years ago, the area was predominantly Conservative, with Labour in a definite second place. It was only after I moved that the Liberals started winning things and now UKIP seems to be developing a stronger than average area.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #267 on: December 20, 2012, 10:18:33 AM »

When I was involved in Spelthorne politics, about thirty years ago
*checks Gary's profile* Oh heh, you're an old. Smiley

The Holy Word mentions that the Tory candidate is in his early 20s and not a local resident (though neither is the 'Kipper.) Tories probably wrote this off as a safe LD hold and may have putten less work in than UKIP.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #268 on: December 20, 2012, 01:26:42 PM »

The Holy Word doesn't mention the interesting views of the UKIP candidate in Kent...

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/gravesend_messenger/news/2012/december/20/geoffrey_clark.aspx

Compulsory advice on euthanasia for the over 80s might have a bit of an effect on the UKIP core vote...
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #269 on: December 21, 2012, 09:45:53 AM »

Gravesham, Meopham North (figures in italics represent changes since October 2011 by-election)

Con 54.6 (-17.3) (+7.3)
Cull the disabled and elderly UKIP 26.6 (+26.6) (-7.1)
Lab 14.1 (-14.0) (+5.9)
Lib Dem 4.7 (+4.7) (-6.1)

Kent, Gravesham Rural

Con 61.3 (+1.3)
Cull the disabled and elderly UKIP 21.8 (+21.8 )
Lab 13.7 (+4.2)
Lib Dem 3.1 (-6.0)
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YL
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« Reply #270 on: December 21, 2012, 01:35:09 PM »

AIUI the UKIP candidate had been suspended by the party before polls opened.  How many of the voters were actually aware of that I have no idea, though.

Anyway, remind me not to move there.  Con+UKIP over 80% in four-way races...ugh.
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