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farewell
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #50 on: February 10, 2012, 02:21:10 pm »
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Pretty good UKIP results in Leek.

UKIP were actually defending both seats, so no.
I know. I read the Holy Word. I didn't think personal votes were inheritable to such an extent; I would have guessed he'd get 10-15%.

Well, the personal vote was being literally inherited in a manner that would do deepest Kerry proud.
Yeah... but this ain't Kerry. Kiss Though the place name implies a Welsh connection. -_-
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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« Reply #51 on: February 10, 2012, 07:27:33 pm »

Leek is a Local Town For Local People (and the Povey's are absolutely Local People), so it might as well be in Kerry.

Random: Charlotte Atkins is the daughter of Ron Atkins (MP for Preston North 1966-1970, 1974-1979). Ron Atkins was later a councillor in Preston. Family traditions and all that.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #52 on: February 11, 2012, 07:52:39 pm »
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To continue the family affair, Steve Povey was a cousin of one of Leek's Tory councillors.
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #53 on: February 12, 2012, 04:19:34 pm »
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Wonder why the Greens didn't bother contesting Kesgrave East, after picking up a respectable 17.6% from - as far as I can see - nowhere in last year's locals?  
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« Reply #54 on: February 12, 2012, 04:34:59 pm »

Presumably the candidate from then didn't want to run.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #55 on: February 12, 2012, 04:43:46 pm »
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Well...how dare they!
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« Reply #56 on: February 16, 2012, 04:11:11 am »
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There's no by-elections next week. Everyone panic!!!
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« Reply #57 on: February 16, 2012, 02:06:51 pm »
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But...what will we do? Tongue
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« Reply #58 on: February 16, 2012, 02:09:58 pm »

But...what will we do? Tongue

Natter about elections in the 1960s?
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« Reply #59 on: February 16, 2012, 02:12:52 pm »
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Genuinely excited. Wink
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« Reply #60 on: February 16, 2012, 02:33:39 pm »
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Holy Word on tonight's by-elections from elsewhere.
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« Reply #61 on: February 16, 2012, 02:34:29 pm »
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The Holy Word was coming, honest.

This week sees four by-elections all caused by resignations.  There is a safe Conservative ward in West Sussex, a fascinating C/Lab ward on the Leicestershire coalfield, and two LD/C contests in councils with long-standing Lib Dem control.

IBSTOCK AND HEATHER, North West Leicestershire DC; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Stacey Harris, a second-year Loughborough University student who had apparently fallen out with her council group.

The large village of Ibstock can be found about 13 miles west-north-west of Leicester, on the A447 Coalville-Hinckley road.  It is on the Leicestershire coalfield and, with a coal seam about 200 feet below the surface, a colliery was established here in the 1820s.  Coal is no longer mined here, but the colliery had a sideline in brick-making which has thrived and developed over the years into Ibstock plc, which is now the UK's largest brick manufacturer and is still based in the village.  The ward of Ibstock and Heather also includes the smaller village of Heather to the west.  Socially the ward is rather mixed but not too badly off overall.

North West Leicestershire council itself is a rather mixed area, including almost the whole of the coalfield (whose major town is unsurprisingly named Coalville) but also some Tory rural areas around Castle Donington and the socially mixed town of Ashby-de-la-Zouch.  This added up to a district that up until 2007 was Labour-controlled more often than not, but in 2007 the Labour vote collapsed here and Labour went from control of the council to holding just five seats.  One of those five seats was held in the formerly-safe-Labour Ibstock and Heather ward, the Tories gaining the other two seats.  A large part of the Labour vote ebbed away to minor parties; two seats were won by the BNP, who topped the poll in neighbouring Hugglescote ward, and in Ibstock in 2007 UKIP polled almost 20%.

There then followed a series of two fascinating by-elections in this ward.  The remaining Labour councillor died in 2007 and a by-election was held in January 2008 which Labour held by 62 votes over the BNP, who finished second with the Conservatives third.  One of the Conservative councillors then died and a second by-election was held in December 2008 which was even closer; this time the Conservatives held by 15 votes over the BNP with Labour in third just 28 votes further behind.  The BNP followed up in 2009 by taking a clear second place in the local county division of Ibstock and Appleby, which includes more favourable Conservative territory and was an easy Conservative gain from Labour, and easily saved their deposit in the 2010 general election for the North West Leicestershire constituency, which has the same boundaries as the district council and was a Conservative gain from Labour, the previous Labour MP having died a few months before the election.

Then at the last district council election in 2011 the local BNP basically threw in the towel, standing just one candidate in what had been one of their best districts.  Ivan Hammonds, the previous BNP standard-bearer in Ibstock, stood as an independent.  The Conservatives held overall control of the district with a reduced majority, while Labour gained one seat off the Conservatives in Ibstock and Heather to leave the ward split 1C/2Lab.

With such close results in the last few years this by-election - the third in this ward in just over four years - looks very unpredictable.  I haven't been able to find much biographical information on the candidates, but all of them did stand last year for wards in the coalfield.  The defending Labour candidate is Dave de Lacy, who narrowly lost year in Greenhill ward (east of Coalville), while the Tory candidate is Russell Boam, who narrowly lost last year in the Coalville suburb of Whitwick.  Ivan Hammonds is standing again as an Independent.  The Lib Dems have re-selected Kim Wyatt, who had by far the best performance of the three Lib Dem candidates in this ward last year; Sue Morrell (who fought Barden, south-east of Coalville, last year) is the Green Party candidate, and UKIP's candidate is Ashby-de-la-Zouch based Jakob Whiten, who last year fought the safe-Labour Coalville suburb of Thringstone for the Conservatives.

May 2011 result C 970/648/612 Lab 748/693/685 Ind 420 LD 355/161/156
Dec 2008 by-election C 660 BNP 645 Lab 614 LD 174
Jan 2008 by-election Lab 699 BNP 637 C 515 LD 411
May 2007 result C 737/731/599 Lab 707/620/559 UKIP 411 LD 225/222
May 2003 result Lab 672/659/648 C 433/424

ITCHINGFIELD, SLINFOLD AND WARNHAM, Horsham DC, West Sussex; caused by the resignation of the Leader of the Council, Conservative councillor Robert Nye, due to financial difficulties with his business.

This is one of those long wards made up of lots of little villages.  It is named after its three constituent parishes, Itchingfield (south-west of Horsham), Slinfold (west of Horsham) and Warnham (north-west of Horsham).  On the boundary of Itchingfield parish is Christ's Hospital station on the Arun Valley railway line, whose hourly service to Victoria station attracts London commuters; the other two parishes have worse transport links and are further down the social scale (although not deprived by any stretch of the imagination).

The ward is part of the safe Conservative Horsham parliamentary constituency, which returns Francis Maude to Parliament, and this is now a safe Conservative ward.  The two seats split C/LD in 2003 with the Tories topping the poll by just 6 votes, but the Lib Dems lost their seat here in 2007 and fell further behind last May.

The three losing candidates from last May, Ian Shepherd (LD, from Warnham), Justin Pickard (Grn, from Barns Green, a village in Itchingfield parish) and George Tribe (UKIP, from Itchingfield) have all been re-selected to fight the by-election.  The Conservatives have selected Stuart Ritchie, a chartered accountant from Warnham, while Labour are fighting the ward for the first time; Horsham-based nursery manager (in the sense of growing plants) David Hide is hoping to sow the seeds for a good Labour performance. 

May 2011 result C 1303/898 LD 569 Grn 366 UKIP 276
May 2007 result C 1088/1082 LD 772/673 UKIP 220
May 2003 result C 908/869 LD 902/810

OADBY WOODLANDS, Oadby and Wigston BC, Leicestershire; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Malcolm Brown.

One of England's smallest district councils with a population of less than 60,000, Oadby and Wigston borough covers two middle-class suburbs of Leicester which for some reason have never become part of the city proper. 

Oadby Woodlands ward, one of five wards covering Oadby, is the south-eastern end of the Leicester built-up area, located on the northern side of the A6 London Road.  It is one of the most well-off areas of a well-off town (the ward's three census areas are all within the 20% least deprived in England, and two of them are within the 4% least deprived) but hasn't escaped the demographic change which Leicester has seen: at the 2001 census nearly 26% of the population were ethnically Indian, mostly Hindu.

Rather like Sutton below, Oadby and Wigston combines prosperity with many years of Liberal Democrat control, in this case going back to 1991 with often huge majorities (in 1995 the Lib Dems almost had a clean sweep with 25 seats out of 26).  The district is the most Lib Dem part of the Conservative parliamentary seat of Harborough, which the Lib Dems have been targeting unsuccessfully for years.  The three elections in this ward since 2003 have all seen very similar results, the Lib Dems winning a straight fight with the Conservatives with between 55% and 59% of the vote.

The Lib Dems have selected Naveed Alam, who fought Oadby Grange ward last year and was one of only three Lib Dem candidates in the district not to be elected.  The Conservatives have re-selected Bhupendra Dave who fought the ward last year, and this time the LD/C duopoly of candidates is broken as UKIP have nominated Dan Price, who fought Oadby St Peter's ward for the Conservatives last year.

May 2011 result LD 865/785 C 628/557
May 2007 result LD 754/745 C 531/522
May 2003 result LD 546/507 C 443/412

WORCESTER PARK, Sutton, South London; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Jennifer Campbell-Klomps, who is moving abroad.

Worcester Park was originally a deer park adjacent to Henry VIII's Nonsuch Palace, and is named after the 4th Earl of Worcester who became Keeper of the park in 1606.  Today it's another tract of the seemingly endless middle-class inter-war suburbia in outer London, located west of the A24 London Road, north of the A2043 Malden Road and east of the Waterloo-Epsom railway line.  That line includes Worcester Park station from where trains reach Waterloo in around 25 minutes.

The area is the north-western corner of the London Borough of Sutton, which has been Liberal Democrat-controlled since 1990.  When this ward was created in 2002 it was one of the Lib Dem wards with a safe majority.  The Lib Dems performed relatively poorly in 2006 and Worcester Park was gained by the Conservatives, but the Lib Dems bounced back at the last council elections to split the ward's representation, gaining two of the three seats.

The Lib Dems have a large majority in Sutton, but this by-election is in a split ward and the Tories will fancy their chances of victory.  They have selected Simon Densley, a local school governor and IT worker, while the Lib Dem candidate is Roger Roberts, a veteran councillor who lost his seat in the neighbouring Nonsuch ward two years ago.  Labour's perennial Worcester Park candidate Hilary Hosking, who works in the rail industory, is standing again; she is the only candidate who lives in the ward.  Also on the ballot paper are George Dow of the Green Party, who is based at the other end of the borough in Wallington and fought Carshalton and Wallington at the last general election, and UKIP's David Pickles who was their parliamentary candidate for the local seat of Sutton and Cheam two years ago.

The campaign has seen an interesting own goal by the Lib Dem side: the area has recently lost a police sergeant, so to highlight this Lib Dems put out a leaflet promoting the website saveoursergeants.org.uk but failed to buy the domain name first, allowing the Tories to snap it up and use it to say nasty things about the Lib Dem candidate.

May 2010 result LD 2739/2291/2269 C 2309/2287/2229 Lab 585/542/507 UKIP 534
May 2006 result C 1398/1311/1306 LD 1167/1155/1136 Ind 656/567/544 Lab 188/187/176
May 2002 result LD 1327/1274/1212 C 725/699/678 Lab 249/229/226 Grn 167

As doktorb says, there are no by-elections on 23rd February.
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #62 on: February 16, 2012, 02:42:04 pm »
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The Holy Word was coming, honest

Just ensuring that there would need to be no post-hoc time-travel or legal quibbles Cheesy
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« Reply #63 on: February 16, 2012, 02:48:38 pm »
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You're just looking to be sigged. Wink

It's pretty remarkable how little impact the coalition has had on Ibstock & Heather's politics - last year's results with swings from '07.

Con 35.4% (+0.1%)
Lab 33.8% (+1.6%)
Lib 11.4% (-0.7%)
Right* 20.0% (-1.0%)

*UKIP in 2007, BNP-turn-Independent last year.
 
It'll also be interesting to see how big a share a Lab+Green can muster in Horsham. Cheesy
« Last Edit: February 16, 2012, 03:07:33 pm by Leftbehind »Logged

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« Reply #64 on: February 16, 2012, 06:30:52 pm »
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North West Leicestershire, Ibstock and Heather

Lab 34.5 (+4.5)
Lib Dem 26.7 (+12.5)
Con 25.6 (-13.3)
Ind 9.0 (-7.8 )
Green 2.3 (+2.3)
UKIP 1.9 (+1.9)

Oadby and Wigston, Oadby Woodlands

Con 47.0 (+4.9)
Lib Dem 37.3 (-20.6)
UKIP 15.6 (+15.6)

Sutton, Worcester Park

Lib Dem 47.2 (+2.8 )
Con 33.7 (-3.7)
Lab 10.9 (+1.4)
UKIP 6.6 (-2.1)
Green 1.6 (+1.6)

Horsham, Itchingfield, Slinford and Warnham

Con 47.4 (-5.1)
Lib Dem 27.2 (+4.3)
UKIP 14.7 (+3.6)
Green 5.5 (-8.0)
Lab 5.1 (+5.1)
« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 05:38:26 am by ObserverIE »Logged
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« Reply #65 on: February 16, 2012, 07:27:34 pm »
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Wow, erratic movement considering what I was saying earlier and the fact Oadby's a Lib Dem fortress.  Turnout at play, or...?

First time Labour's managed double figures in Worcester Park in over a decade (but they were only a fraction away from it in 2002, with a far more competitive 7% Green vote).
« Last Edit: February 16, 2012, 07:30:24 pm by Leftbehind »Logged

farewell
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« Reply #66 on: February 17, 2012, 06:13:38 am »
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There's no by-elections next week. Everyone panic!!!
Oh my god! Where's my pro-anti-no-by-election shelter?
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« Reply #67 on: February 17, 2012, 06:28:39 am »
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Just 16% for the sole white candidate, standing for a "respectable" party, in a 70% white ward? Must have hoped for a better result than that.
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« Reply #68 on: February 17, 2012, 06:34:38 am »
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There's no by-elections next week. Everyone panic!!!
Oh my god! Where's my pro-anti-no-by-election shelter?

In "another place" I'm told there is a parish council by-election.

So there will be ballot boxes used in anger next week after all.
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« Reply #69 on: March 01, 2012, 11:34:28 am »
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Thursday 1st March is my birthday.  It's also the date set for two county council by-elections in two of England's smaller county towns.

ABBEY, Shropshire Council; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Josephine Jones.

Abbey - not an exceptionally helpful name for a county division.  In fact at the last county council elections in 2009 there were five separate Abbey divisions contested in England.

This Abbey division is named after Shrewsbury Abbey, a former Benedictine foundation dating from 1083, and located east of the town centre along the road to London.  If the name sounds familiar, it's probably from the Brother Cadfael detective stories by Ellis Peters, which were set in and around the Abbey during the Anarchy period.  Much of the Abbey buildings are long gone now, but some of the church remains, so the Abbey has done better than the Gay Meadow, Shrewsbury Town's hilariously-named former football ground at the western end of the ward, now demolished.  Other buildings of note in the ward include the county council headquarters in the Shirehall, and the railway signalbox at Severn Bridge Junction; the world's largest remaining mechanical signalbox with 180 levers, it controls the junction at the south-east end of Shrewsbury station.

The division was created in 2009 for the first unitary Shropshire Council election, and runs along the southern edge of the Shrewsbury-Wolverhampton railway line.  The only previous result is from 2009 in which it was a safe Conservative area.  Previously on Shrewsbury and Atcham district council the western end of the division (including the Abbey) had been in the Lib Dem stronghold of Underdale ward, while the eastern end had been in the safe-Conservative Column ward of Shrewsbury and Atcham district council, and in the safe-Labour (at least in 2005) Monkmoor ward of the old Shropshire County Council.  The ward is entirely in the top half of the deprivation indices.

The list of candidates has a significant omission: there is no Labour candidate for the by-election.  Defending the seat for the Conservatives is Peter Wright, former Assistant Chief Constable of West Mercia Police.  The Lib Dems have nominated environmental scientist Hannah Fraser, and the other candidate for the by-election is retired college lecturer John Brown, standing for the Green Party.

John Brown (Grn)
Hannah Fraser (LD)
Peter Wright (C)

June 2009 result C 637 LD 383 Lab 269


CASTLE, Cumbria County Council; caused by the death of Liberal Democrat councillor Jim Tootle at the age of 59.  During his council career Tootle had blamed the "Cursing Stone", erected in Carlisle 2001 and inscribed with an ancient Border curse, for the 2005 Carlisle floods and 2001 foot-and-mouth outbreak.

Castle - not an exceptionally helpful name for a county division.  In fact at the last county council elections in 2009 there were five separate Castle divisions contested in England.

This Castle division is named after Carlisle Castle, which was built in the 11th century under King William II, and rebuilt in stone by his successor Henry I, to guard the English/Scottish border.  The castle saw action many times up until the unification of England and Scotland in 1603, and last saw action in 1745 when it was the last English garrison left by Bonnie Prince Charlie during the Jacobite rebellion.  Today the castle is open to the public, but the Army still has a presence here, the castle being the headquarters of the Duke of Lancaster's Regiment.  In 2009 I went to Carlisle Castle under their auspices as part of the centenary celebrations for the TA.

The county division named after Carlisle Castle falls into two separate parts.  To the west side of the castle and the River Caldew is the Willow Holme and Newtown areas around the Cumberland Infirmary.  To the east side of the castle is Carlisle's historic city centre, all of which is in this ward except for Citadel railway station.  The northern boundary of the ward is the River Eden and much of the north of the ward is flood plain.  Some Cumbria University buildings are within the ward, which is generally low-down in the deprivation indices.

The county divisions and city wards in urban Carlisle all have the same boundaries, so it's possible to look at the results here on an annual basis.  One thing that immediately sticks out is that Castle has a very high councillor attrition rate: this is the fifth by-election here since 2000, making fifteen polls here in eleven years (eight ordinary city council elections, three ordinary county council elections, three city council by-elections in April 2001, November 2005 and March 2009, and a county council by-election in February 2007).  From June 2001 to May 2010 all of these were won by the Liberal Democrats with Labour second, making Castle the only reliable Lib Dem ward in Carlisle.  Labour reduced the Lib Dem majority to 14 votes in 2010 and gained the ward from the Lib Dems last year, the first time they had won Castle since the April 2001 by-election when a Liberal Party candidate stood and split the Lib Dem vote.  The BNP polled well in the March 2009 by-election (19.7%) but have faded into the background since then.

Jim Tootle was also one of the city councillors for Carlisle, but as he was due for re-election in May there won't be a city council by-election before then.  This by-election is thus just for his county council seat.  Both of the remaining city councillors for the ward are contesting the by-election: Olwyn Luckley (re-elected to the city council in 2010 and winner of the 2007 county by-election) is looking to hold the county seat for the Lib Dems a second time and Willie Whalen (elected to the city council in 2011), a Ucatt union official, is hoping to gain the ward for Labour a second time.  At the time of writing the Wikipedia page for Carlisle says Luckley is already the county councillor - the election hasn't happened yet, people.  The Conservatives don't always stand here (there was no Tory candidate last year) but have found a candidate this time, Irthington-based businessman Keith Meller.  The Green party candidate Neil Boothman is a care worker, while UKIP are standing here for the first time in the shape of their 2010 parliamentary candidate for Carlisle, retired businessman Michael Owen.

Neil Boothman (Grn)
Olwyn Luckley (LD)
Keith Meller (C)
Michael Owen (UKIP)
Willie Whalen (Lab)

May 2011 City Council result Lab 549 LD 438 Grn 135 TUSC 90 BNP 84
May 2010 City Council result LD 816 Lab 802 C 553 Grn 161
June 2009 result LD 424 Lab 297 C 241 Grn 144 BNP 129
March 2009 City Council by-election LD 465 Lab 304 BNP 255 C 143 Grn 125
May 2008 City Council result LD 562 Lab 299 C 206 Ind 202
May 2007 City Council result LD 607 Lab 331 C 185
Feb 2007 by-election LD 653 Lab 222 C 117 Grn 29
May 2006 City Council result LD 632 Lab 321 C 149 Ind 69
Nov 2005 City Council by-election LD 538 Lab 370
May 2005 result LD 937 Lab 853 C 349
June 2004 City Council result LD 917 Lab 541
May 2003 City Council result LD 603 Lab 443
May 2002 City Council result LD 549 Lab 373 C 195
June 2001 result LD 994 Lab 786 C 448
Apr 2001 City Council by-election Lab 329 LD 294 C 258 Lib 67
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #70 on: March 01, 2012, 11:36:26 am »
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Michael Owen (UKIP)

He's finally given up on his football career, presumably.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2012, 01:25:26 pm by Joseph Gordon Levitt »Logged

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« Reply #71 on: March 01, 2012, 12:22:04 pm »

Thomas Telford is directly responsible for the disappearance of much of the Abbey.

Anyway, Abbey ought to be a rock-solid Tory ward. Most of it was in the old Column ward (staid conservative and Conservative suburbia) and the rest came over from Underdale (a LibDem fortress since the 1990s and heavily gentrified). So very middle class, but in different ways. There was an Abbey ward back in the 1970s, I think, and it was Liberal at least once. Unless I'm misremembering a piece of paper I looked at nearly a decade ago. Which is possible.

Anyway, Shrewsbury CLP is actually quite large so I'm not sure what the reason for not running a candidate is*, but that fact does open up the possibility of an upset, given proximity to Underdale and the unpopularity of the (very) right-wing Tory administration on Shropshire Council. Maybe.

*I've been out of the area for like six years now and do not know the gossip, if there is any.
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« Reply #72 on: March 01, 2012, 07:13:56 pm »
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Cumbria, Castle (figures in italics represent change since 2011 city council elections)

Lab 43.1 (+0.7) (+19.6)
Lib Dem 39.0 (+6.2) (+3.0)
Con 9.8 (+9.8 ) (-9.9)
Green 5.7 (-4.7) (-5.4)
UKIP 2.3 (+2.3) (+2.3)

Shropshire, Abbey

Lib Dem 45.3 (+15.6)
Con 44.6 (-4.8 )
Green 10.1 (+10.1)

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« Reply #73 on: March 01, 2012, 07:38:10 pm »

Called it (sort of).
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« Reply #74 on: March 07, 2012, 05:09:12 am »
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I feel completely lost. Is there a by-election or two happening tomorrow?
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