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Author Topic: UK local by-elections 2012  (Read 21705 times)
Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever
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« on: January 09, 2012, 02:35:34 pm »
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There were two by-elections scheduled for 12th January to start off the year.  However...

BRADWELL, Derbyshire Dales DC; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Janet Goodison.

Bradwell ward covers a very beautiful stretch of the White Peak, running up from the Hope Valley onto the high limestone plateau to the south.  Bradwell itself is at the north end, and the ward runs south along the B6049 to Tideswell to include the parishes of Hazlebadge, Little Hucklow, Great Hucklow (where I once stayed on a Cub Scout camp), Grindlow and Foolow.  Just outside Bradwell is the Bagshawe Cavern cave system, where potholers can cut their teeth.  Apart from tourism, the main local employer is probably the cement factory at Hope, just outside the ward, which dominates the Hope Valley.

This is one of those wards which is so rural and parochial it rarely gets a contested election: Janet Goodison was elected unopposed in 2003 and 2007 but did face a contest last year, defeating Independent candidate Christopher Furness by 430 votes to 364.  Furness has managed to get the Conservative nomination for the by-election, and with nobody else having submitted nomination papers he has won the by-election unopposed.

CINDERFORD WEST, Forest of Dean DC, Gloucestershire; caused by the death of Labour councillor Frank Beard.

One of England's largest surviving natural forests, the Forest of Dean has a unique industrial history, as an ancient royal hunting ground located on deposits of iron ore and coal measures.  Miners from the Forest helped Edward I to gain Berwick-upon-Tweed from the Scots by undermining the town's defences; the result was that Edward I granted free mining rights within the district to locals.  Even today, under the Dean Forest (Mines) Act 1838 men over 21 who were born within the Hundred of St Briavels and have worked a mine for a year and a day can register to be freeminers.  (In 2010 Elaine Horman became the first woman freeminer.)

The Dean Forest (Mines) Act also allowed freeminers to sell their rights; this allowed the necessary investment to build and operate deep mines.  The result was that the industry rapidly expanded, and to serve it the planned town of Cinderford was born.

Deep coal mining in the Forest ended in 1965, although the freeminers still work some private mines, and today light industry predominates as the main employer, with some tourism.

The mining legacy still has its effect on politics in the area (although not as much as on polling day in 1874 when rioters ransacked the Conservative HQ in Cinderford) with the town of Cinderford being safe for Labour even during their recent nadir.  The Forest was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2005; even in 2007 Cinderford's two wards returned a full slate of five Labour councillors with comfortable majorities; and Labour held the Cinderford county division in 2009 with a majority of almost 10%.  The late councillor Frank Beard had only been elected to the district council in 2011 (Lab 50.1 C 18.9 Ind 18.1 LD 13.0) but had previously served on the town council for many years including a term as Mayor of Cinderford.  Like his ZZ Top namesake, he didn't have a beard.

The by-election has attracted candidates from the three main parties plus UKIP, who are standing here for the first time.  The Lib Dem candidate is the same as last year.
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2012, 05:21:19 pm »
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Ow bist, old butt?
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« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2012, 05:39:43 pm »
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Anyway, Cinderford is the most Labour town in the Forest (and perhaps in the entire South West region?) and has been a stronghold for nearly a century now, and we'll see a comfortable hold unless something has gone catastrophically wrong locally. Labour did quite well in the Forest last year, helped (no doubt) by the controversy over its possible sale, so it might be interesting to see if that's faded at all.

There is, of course, some by-law or other than specifies that whenever the Forest is mentioned, there must also be a reference of some kind to its most famous son, even though Berry Hill is practically foreign to people in Cinderford, mind. So lets make it an unusually directly political one:

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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2012, 05:25:48 am »
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Forest of Dean, Cinderford West

Lab 52.8 (+2.7)
Con 25.1 (+6.2)
UKIP 12.7 (+12.7)
Lib Dem 9.5 (-3.5)
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2012, 09:33:51 am »
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Two urban Lib Dem seats are being defended in the by-elections on 19th January, one safe and one marginal.  Later, it's the big race at Redcar, but first it's off to St Albans.

BATCHWOOD, St Albans DC, Hertfordshire; caused by the resignation of Liberal Democrat councillor Amanda Archer, who has taken a politically restricted post in the Civil Service.

Twenty miles north of London can be found the city of St Albans.  Originally a Roman city and the first stop out of London on Watling Street, it is named after St Alban, the first British Christian martyr, who was beheaded here by the Romans.  The Benedictines built a major abbey dedicated to St Alban, and from Saxon times the town became a place of pilgrimage; the abbey church became the parish church after the dissolution of the monasteries, and was made a cathedral in 1887. 

Real development of the city didn't get going until the twentieth century, but particularly after the Second World War the city boomed with London overspill.  One of the areas that was developed in response was Batchwood ward, which lies on the north-western edge of the city between the Redbourn Road and the Harpenden Road.  St Albans' excellent rail link to London (six trains per hour to St Pancras station) has made the city very sought-after by commuters, but Batchwood ward has been rather left behind in this process and contains some of the most deprived parts of the city, particularly along the Redbourn Road.

Politically, Batchwood is an oddball as well.  St Albans council (which also covers Harpenden and villages to the north) is closely fought between the Lib Dems and Tories and can often produce wrong-winner results, in which the Conservatives poll most votes but the Lib Dems win most seats.  Batchwood, however, was a Labour stronghold during the Blair years mostly thanks to an evenly-split opposition, although strong Lib Dem campaigning slowly turned the ward into a marginal with Labour majorities of 34 in 2004 and 92 in 2007. 

The Lib Dems finally gained the ward in 2008, and on general election day in 2010 unseated the leader of the council's Labour group, Roma Mills, by just one vote with the Conservatives not far behind; not a good day for Mills who was also the unsuccessful Labour candidate for the St Albans constituency that year.  The formation of the Coalition appears to have hit the Lib Dem vote here hard, as last May they fell to third place for the first time since 2003, with Labour increasing their majority to the point where the ward looks safe again.

There is some pressure for the Lib Dems here in terms of control of the council; they lost several seats in 2011 and Amanda Archer's resignation gave the Conservatives a majority on the council.  While the Conservative candidate Tim Smith is unlikely to win the by-election to preserve that majority, the Lib Dems need a good performance in this by-election to have any hope of stopping the Tories from taking overall control at the next election in May. 

The Lib Dems will try and hold their seat with David Partridge, who lives in the New Greens area at the north end of the ward, while Labour have selected Roma Mills.  Mills' strong result in 2006 (when this was the district's only Labour ward) would appear to indicate that she has a personal vote, and this by-election provides her with a good chance to get back on the council.  Completing the ballot paper is Naomi Love from the Green Party, who stood here last year.

Naomi Love (Grn)
Roma Mills (Lab)
David Partridge (LD)
Tim Smith (C)

May 2011 result Lab 1128 C 743 LD 675 Ind 168 Grn 47
May 2010 result LD 1269 Lab 1268 C 1188 Grn 179
May 2008 result LD 864 Lab 702 C 454 Grn 174
May 2007 result Lab 695 LD 603 C 515 Grn 193
May 2006 result Lab 827 LD 587 C 524 Grn 204
June 2004 result Lab 732 LD 698 C 545
May 2003 result Lab 873 C 492 LD 488
May 2002 result (double vacancy) Lab 993/871 C 343/339 LD 323/267


NEWCOMEN, Redcar and Cleveland council; caused by the death of Liberal Democrat councillor Glynis Abbott.

Here's your form guide to the big race at Redcar on Thursday: the Newcomen Stakes.

Redcar is a town on the coast east of Middlesbrough with the unusual combination of seaside resort, flat racecourse and steelworks.  The beach lies at the north-eastern edge of the town, the racecourse is rather incongruously located in the middle of the town, built up on all sides, while the steelworks and chemical works to the west completely fill the gap between Redcar and Middlesbrough.

Newcomen ward is located in the middle of the town, running south from Redcar Central station (two trains an hour to Middlesbrough, Darlington and Saltburn) alongside the western edge of the racecourse.  The deprivation indices get worse the further south you go in the ward, with the south end of the ward merging into the very working-class area of Kirkleatham ward.

The steelworks has been unquestionably the major political issue in the town in recent years, with the closure of the works in February 2010 followed by a sensational Liberal Democrat gain at the general election three months later.  Following the announcement that the steelworks were to reopen under new ownership, the Lib Dems followed up in the 2011 council elections by topping the poll in five of the town's six wards, including Newcomen, and comfortably held a double by-election in the seafront Zetland ward in November last year following a row over whether the Lib Dem councillors had politically restricted posts.

This bodes well for the Lib Dems in this ward over the other side of the racecourse, where the yellow horse will start off as a short-priced favourite according to the formbooks.  Glynis Abbott, in tandem with her husband Chris, had won the previous four races for this ward, the last three by distances, and Chris has been a councillor even longer than that.

Of course, all the good horse races are handicaps, and the new Lib Dem candidate Dave Stones, a local Scout group leader, has certainly made a rod for his own back: the Labour campaign has dug up some (at best) very dubious Facebook remarks Stones made back in 2010 which you can read at http://politicalscrapbook.net/2012/01/lib-dem-anti-islam-candidate/, and Labour is playing the race card for all it's worth with a local Labour MP asking Nick Clegg to disown Stones.  The Lib Dems are standing by their runner, although it remains to be seen whether the resultant heavy going will cost him significant ground in the race.

Hoping to come up on the rails and be first past the winning post for Labour is ex-Lib Dem councillor John Hannon, whose previous election results appear on your racecard as "314" - third in 2007 (in Zetland ward), winner in 2008, fourth in 2011.  Hannon spectacularly gained Kirkleatham ward for the Lib Dems in an October 2008 by-election but appears to have fallen out with the party after that, running for re-election in Kirkleatham as an independent in May and being just edged out on the line by Labour; he finished fourth in the race for three seats, 39 votes short of third place.

Completing the list of runners and riders is the rank outsider in this race: Matthew Bennett of the Conservatives, a 19-year-old from a steelworking family, who is hoping to become Redcar's youngest-ever councillor.  The minor parties are non-runners this time.

Matthew Bennett (C)
John Hannon (Lab)
Dave Stones (LD)

May 2011 result LD 781/733 Lab 442/393 C 100
May 2007 result LD 725/637 Ind 346/249 Lab 204 C 111
May 2003 result LD 1423/1301 Lab 418 C 197/123
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2012, 10:16:03 am »
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Don't think that LibDem success in Redcar town last year had much to do with the steelworks; more people were employed at the other end of the constituency, where they bombed pretty badly for the most part.
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2012, 07:30:04 am »
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The SNP are putting up 43 candidates in Glasgow to contest 21 wards.
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2012, 01:36:55 pm »
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The SNP are putting up 43 candidates in Glasgow to contest 21 wards.

they undernominated last time didn't they? looks like their aiming for a big finish, have Labour finished their nominations yet/
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2012, 02:18:22 pm »
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I presume those last two posts were meant to go in the May elections thread?
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« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2012, 06:47:30 pm »
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St Albans, Batchwood

Lab 55.1 (+14.2)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-2.7)
Con 19.1 (-7.8  )
Green 4.2 (+2.5)

Redcar and Cleveland, Newcomen

Lab 49.0 (+15.6)
Lib Dem 44.0 (-15.0)
Con 6.9 (-0.7)
« Last Edit: January 20, 2012, 06:41:10 am by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2012, 02:28:40 am »
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St Albans, Batchwood

Lab 55.1 (+14.2)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-2.7)
Con 19.1 (-7.8  )
Green 4.2 (+2.5)

yowza! some interesting swings there
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« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2012, 06:44:31 am »
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St Albans, Batchwood

Lab 55.1 (+14.2)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-2.7)
Con 19.1 (-7.8  )
Green 4.2 (+2.5)

yowza! some interesting swings there

All three sets of comparisons are with 2011. Not looking good for the Lib Dems so far.
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« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2012, 06:47:29 am »
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Labour gain Newcomen? Didn't really expect that.
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« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2012, 07:30:14 am »
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Interesting; wonder what kind of a role the internets played in that.
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2012, 01:18:06 pm »
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I'm not that surprised by the Redcar gain: it appears that the ward wasn't particularly natural Lib Dem territory and that they had a strong personal vote.  The Lib Dems can suffer in those situations when they have a new candidate, and I suspect that the publicity about their candidate's Facebook and Twitter outbursts didn't help.  OK, I'm not typical of the electorate in that ward, but given that "Lib" Dem and a generic Labour candidate, I'd have chosen Labour even in the post-Iraq Blair years.
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« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2012, 02:33:31 pm »
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Just one by-election this week, in the smallest English shire.

UPPINGHAM, Rutland County Council; caused by the death of Independent councillor Colin Forsyth, a former dentist and Mayor of Uppingham who was awarded an OBE in 2001 for services to dental care for prisoners.

The market town of Uppingham is the second town of Rutland, by far England's smallest county.  Located on the Leicester-Peterborough road, the town is most famous for its public school, which is now in its fifth century and has educated four current MPs (Conservatives Robert Adley, Stephen Dorrell and Edward Timpson together with Jenny Willott of the Lib Dems) as well as many other members of the British great and good, including recent Strictly Come Dancing winner Harry Judd.  The town, together with the tiny parish of Beaumont Chase to the south-west, forms Rutland County Council's only three-member ward.

Uppingham's political representation has been stable since the current ward boundaries came in in 2003.  Marc Oxley of the Lib Dems is the town's longest-serving councillor, having been returned at all three elections since 2003 (when he topped the poll).  There has been one Conservative councillor, Kenneth Bool standing down last year and being replaced by Lucy Stephenson, who topped the poll.  Finally, there has been one independent councillor, Peter Ind serving until 2011 when he lost his seat to Colin Forsyth (who had won a previous by-election in 2002, gaining the seat from Labour, before losing to Mr Ind in 2003).

Previous election results have been marked by undernomination: May 2011 saw two candidates each from the Conservatives and Lib Dems and two independent candidates, and in 2003 and 2007 the main parties never stood more than one candidate.  Labour last fought the ward in 2003, although their candidate from that year stood as an independent in 2007 and came last in a field of five candidates.

The by-election will result in a change to Uppingham's political balance as there is no independent candidate in the by-election.  However, the previous undernomination and personal votes make the by-election tricky to call.  Leading the charge for the Tories is retired council planning officer Carolyn Cartwright, while the Lib Dem candidate Peter Golden is a veteran councillor who is hoping to get back on the county council after losing his seat last year in Normanton ward.  The ballot paper is completed by Labour candidate Julie Park.

Carolyn Cartwright (C)
Peter Golden (LD)
Julie Park (Lab)

May 2011 result C 645/562 LD 626/434 Ind 600/531
May 2007 result C 611 LD 552 Ind 536/314 UKIP 355
May 2003 result LD 486 C 419 Ind 402/391 Lab 367 UKIP 233
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2012, 06:48:16 pm »
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Rutland, Uppingham

Con 50.8 (+16.3)
Lab 25.3 (+25.3)
Lib Dem 24.0 (-9.5)
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2012, 08:15:15 pm »
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Forward!
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2012, 12:32:45 pm »
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How the hell did Labour hold something here, even if it was during the Blairite heyday? Factor in that 25% now, and presumably there is some sort of basis for a Labour vote here that I just haven't noticed any reason for?
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2012, 01:31:59 pm »
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How the hell did Labour hold something here, even if it was during the Blairite heyday? Factor in that 25% now, and presumably there is some sort of basis for a Labour vote here that I just haven't noticed any reason for?


?
Rutland has no seat on the county council and the Westminster seat (Rutland and Melton and its predecessors) are Conservative since 1867, when the last Liberal lost, according to Wikipedia.
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« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2012, 01:38:05 pm »
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How the hell did Labour hold something here, even if it was during the Blairite heyday? Factor in that 25% now, and presumably there is some sort of basis for a Labour vote here that I just haven't noticed any reason for?


?
Rutland has no seat on the county council and the Westminster seat (Rutland and Melton and its predecessors) are Conservative since 1867, when the last Liberal lost, according to Wikipedia.
Says in the writeup. This place elected a (ie one, out of three) Labour county councillor during the Blairite heyday. And they also came second yesterday. Somebody in this tiny town / market village / whatevsky is voting Labour... and Rutland is about the last place I'd expect anybody to do so.
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« Reply #21 on: January 27, 2012, 02:36:01 pm »
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The Labour candidate elected in the Blairite heyday seemed to be a personal vote, since his Labour counterpart came nowhere near matching his success.

Labour can actually attract a respectable vote in Tory areas, but it's been hidden by tactical voting, local democratic neglect, and enough shocking results for Labour over the last decade to make them credible.
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« Reply #22 on: January 27, 2012, 02:40:16 pm »
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The fourth out of four by-elections this month where the Lib Dem vote dropped from the already poor level of 2011.
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« Reply #23 on: January 27, 2012, 04:43:11 pm »
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Rutland doesn't have the sort of radical tradition that is usually the underpinning for good Labour votes in such places, which is what makes it a little odd. Even if we can put down the councillor in the 90s down to personal appeal and little else (such things do happen, of course). Maybe the Labour candidate this time round was also well known. If not though... I don't know. Especially as the town is home to a public school, something not normally associated with even relative Labour strength. Er... is there a food processing industry in the town that actually employs British voters, perhaps?
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« Reply #24 on: January 27, 2012, 05:48:47 pm »
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Heh. My aunt's ex-husband lives in Rutland.
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