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ObserverIE
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« Reply #100 on: March 22, 2012, 06:51:56 pm »
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Hertfordshire, Waltham Cross

Con 56.4 (+14.5)
Lab 34.0 (+6.9)
UKIP 6.5 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 3.1 (-10.5)

Tendring, St. Bartholomews

Residents 72.7 (+0.9)
Con 19.3 (-8.9)
Lab 8.0 (+8.0)

West Devon, Tavistock North

Ind Moody 35.5 (+8.3)
Con 22.3 (-10.6)
Lib Dem 19.6 (-3.2)
Lab 10.9 (-6.2)
UKIP 6.8 (+6.8 )
Ind Worth 5.0 (+5.0)

Brent, Dollis Hill

Lib Dem 46.5 (+6.6)
Lab 45.1 (+7.5)
Con 5.4 (-12.9)
Green 3.0 (-1.2)
« Last Edit: March 22, 2012, 07:04:23 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

ObserverIE
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« Reply #101 on: March 29, 2012, 06:58:41 pm »
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Holy Word unaccountably not posted here but available elsewhere

Wandsworth, Southfields

Con 49.1 (+0.1)
Lab 40.3 (+17.4)
Lib Dem 5.9 (-13.3)
Green 2.7 (-4.6)
UKIP 1.1 (+1.1)
Ind 1.0 (-0.6)

High Peak, Buxton Central

Lab 45.0 (+3.4)
Con 42.9 (+9.5)
Lib Dem 7.6 (-3.4)
Ind 4.5 (+4.5)

Sevenoaks, Cowden and Hever

Con 78.5
UKIP 21.5

Sevenoaks, Crockenhill and Well Hill

Lab 58.3
Con 34.0
UKIP 7.7

(Lab gain from Ind; Lab candidate widow of previous councillor)

North Kesteven, Heckington Rural

Con 53.1 (-2.6)
Lincs Ind 46.9 (+20.6)
« Last Edit: March 30, 2012, 05:55:54 am by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #102 on: March 30, 2012, 03:49:11 am »
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The Tory vote is resilient. Even in Southfields where Labour had a good increase, they are stable. High Peak showed a Lab to Con swing compared to 2011. How many by-elections have seen a Lab to Con/LD swing in the latest months? Can Labour do worse in 2012 locals than in 2011 (which wasn't a particularly great year)?
But as I was reminded on an another place, Labour's 2011 performance was actually pretty mixed and in some areas they did very well (and so there they can't improve much further)

Meanwhile, from the Council website:
Sally Tarry, the Conservative Party candidate, received 578 votes to 510 for the Lincolnshire Independent Party candidate Liz Peto. The turnout was 25.32%.


« Last Edit: March 30, 2012, 03:50:58 pm by Andrea »Logged
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« Reply #103 on: March 30, 2012, 01:30:38 pm »
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Yes, I forgot to post the Holy Word.  Apologies.  I've been very busy this week.

There is no Holy Word next week either because next Thursday is Maundy Thursday and no by-elections have been arranged for that day.
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #104 on: April 11, 2012, 05:03:18 pm »
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April is normally a lean time for local by-elections; with local elections due in much of the country in May many local parties prefer to postpone by-elections until then, and there is also a presumption against holding by-elections on Maundy Thursday.  There are three by-elections on tomorrow: one in rural Nottinghamshire caused by the death of a councillor, and two in Darlington caused by councillors being disqualified.  But before that, there was a rare Wednesday poll today:

EAST FINCHLEY, Barnet borough council, North London; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Andrew McNeil who is moving to Northern Ireland for family reasons.

Originally part of the Bishop of London's hunting ground, the London suburb of East Finchley (the N2 postal district) was first seriously developed in the nineteenth century, with the coming of a railway line connecting the area with Kings Cross.  Building was basically complete by 1910 and since then the area has been residential, with a little industry and a large cemetery: the St Pancras and Islington cemetery is described as London's oldest and largest municipal cemetery and is the last resting place of Ford Madox Brown.  The railway line to Kings Cross was replaced in the 1940s by an extension of the Northern Line of the Underground, with East Finchley station at the northern end of a 17-mile tunnel to Morden which was for many years the longest railway tunnel in the world.

The current East Finchley ward runs north and north-west from the underground station along the High Road and the East End Road, as far as the North Circular Road.  Socially it's a rather divided ward, with the area around the East End Road being in the top half of the deprivation indices, the northern end of the High Road being close to the bottom, and the rest of the ward somewhere in between.

Politically, Finchley will always be associated with Margaret Thatcher, having returned her to Parliament from 1959 until 1992.  However, it was never a super-safe seat for her and these days the old Finchley constituency she represented has a majority of Labour councillors (the current Finchley seat includes Golders Green which is a better area for the Tories). 

East Finchley is the core of those Labour wards, having voted for the party at every election since 1982.  The three elections on the current ward boundaries have all produced safe Labour holds, with the Green Party usually finishing third ahead of the Lib Dems (except at the most recent council election in 2010).  In 2008 this was the only ward in the Finchley and Golders Green constituency to vote for Ken Livingstone.

Given the generally middle-class makeup of the area the Labour strength is rather strange; one possible reason is that the ward borders the Hornsey and Wood Green constituency, which similarly leans to the left more than its social makeup might indicate thanks to a large left-liberal population and Guardian readership.  Of course, this may be completely wrong.

The by-election produced no minor party interest and the only candidates are from the three main parties.  Defending for Labour is 25-year-old Arjun Mittra, who is opposed by currency trader Anshul Gupta, standing for the Conservatives, and Jane Gibson for the Liberal Democrats.

Parliamentary constituency: Finchley and Golders Green
GLA constituency: Barnet and Camden
ONS Travel to Work Area: London

Jane Gibson (LD)
Anshul Gupta (C)
Arjun Mittra (Lab)

May 2010 result Lab 3315/2931/2868 C 1994/1855/1723 LD 1725/1397/1237 Grn 652/588/477
May 2006 result Lab 1852/1767/1767 C 1080/1078/1073 Grn 748/586 LD 745/640/555
May 2002 result Lab 2013/1933/1900 C 879/823/798 Grn 626 LD 547/489/365 UKIP 148

2008 GLA elections (excludes postal voters)
Mayoral: Ken 1921 Boris 1527 Paddick 487 Grn 243 BNP 40 Chr 33 Left 19 UKIP 18 EDP 10 Winston McKenzie 3
List: Lab 1534 C 1218 Grn 626 LD 485 BNP 86 Chr 73 Abolish Congestion Charge 70 Respect 57 UKIP 47 Left 41 EDP 33 Unity for Peace and Socialism 8 One London 5 Rathy Alagaratnam 0


Moving on to tomorrow's polls, we start with two by-elections in Darlington caused by councillors being disqualified.

HARROWGATE HILL, Darlington council, Co Durham, caused by the disqualification of former Labour councillor Mark Burton; and HURWORTH on the same council, caused by the disqualification of the Liberal Democrat group leader Martin Swainston.  Former councillor Burton is serving a 22-month prison sentence for sexually assaulting a schoolgirl and possession of child pornography, while former councillor Swainston did not attend any council meetings in six months.

240 miles north of East Finchley is another ward on the old Great North Road.  Harrowgate Hill ward is basically the northern end of the market town of Darlington, located on the A167 road towards Durham.  The built-up area merges seamlessly into Harrowgate Village, a relatively new development outside the old borough boundary and still part of Whessoe parish.  Harrowgate Village is a very well-off area but only accounts for about a quarter of the voters; Harrowgate Hill proper is in the middle of the deprivation indices.

While this is certainly one of the nicer areas of Darlington it returned a full slate of Labour councillors in 2003.  In 2007 the Labour vote collapsed and the Conservatives took two of the three seats in an effective photo-finish between the two parties.  Labour regained the Conservative seats last year, but while Mark Burton had a large personal vote at the time the other two seats were won much more narrowly, with majorities of 96 and 47 votes.

Hurworth is a very different ward, covering the rural area immediately to the south of Darlington.  It is based on the village of Hurworth-on-Tees, and also extends to the east to include the smaller villages of Neasham and Sockburn; located in a bend in the river Tees, Sockburn was once the southernmost point of the old county of Durham.  Just outside Hurworth is Rockliffe Hall, built in 1863 by Arthur Backhouse, a member of one of the Quaker families for which Darlington is famous, and now the training complex for Middlesbrough FC.

Hurworth ward was very safe Conservative in 2003 with only Labour opposition.  This changed in September 2005 when Martin Swainston won a by-election here for the Lib Dems, the Conservative vote collapsing.  The Liberal Democrats followed up in 2007 by gaining the second seat and making the ward safe for them; Labour polled just 2.4% that year, which must be some sort of record for a ward in County Durham.  In 2011 Swainston had a large personal vote but his running-mate fell to only 63 votes ahead of the Conservatives.

Both by-elections are being contested by the three main parties and UKIP.  In Harrowgate Hill, where Labour could be in some trouble given the circumstances of the by-election and the loss of Burton's personal vote, they have selected Helen Crumbie.  The Tories have gone for Gill Cartwright, who was top of the poll here in 2007 and lost her seat last year.  The Lib Dems, who didn't stand here in 2011, have selected Hilary Allen, Daniel Fairclough is standing for UKIP and Paul Thompson is standing for the far-right England First party.

In Hurworth the disqualified Lib Dem councillor Martin Swainston is standing for re-election.  There is a precedent for this in County Durham (an Independent councillor won a by-election in South Tyneside in 2009 caused by his being kicked off the council for non-attendance) but it's still an interesting redefinition of chutzpah.  Swainston is opposed by Christopher Brownbridge for the Conservatives, Steve Rose for Labour and David Davies for UKIP.

Harrowgate Hill
Parliamentary constituency: Darlington
ONS Travel to Work Area: Darlington

Hilary Allen (LD)
Gill Cartwright (C)
Helen Crumbie (Lab)
Daniel Fairclough (UKIP)
Paul Thompson (England First)

May 2011 result Lab 1261/959/910 C 863/590/554
May 2007 result C 713/689/544 Lab 706/663/614 LD 532/469/456 BNP 296 Grn 223
May 2003 result Lab 1016/907/833 C 647/513/494 LD 439/337/276 BNP 261 Ind 221

Hurworth
Parliamentary constituency: Darlington
ONS Travel to Work Area: Darlington

Christopher Brownbridge (C)
David Davies (UKIP)
Steve Rose (Lab)
Martin Swainston (LD)

May 2011 result LD 886/568 C 505/386 Lab 175/175
May 2007 result LD 987/846 C 505/354 Ind 164 Lab 40/37
Sept 2005 by-election LD 527 C 379 Ind 297 Lab 45
May 2003 result C 1175/1121 Lab 318/315


LOWDHAM, Newark and Sherwood district council, Nottinghamshire; caused by the death of the Chairman of the Council, Conservative councillor Keith Sheppard.

Seven miles north-east of Nottingham is the large village of Lowdham, located at the junction of the A612 Nottingham-Southwell and A6097 Bingham-Farnsfield roads.  It is served by a railway station on the Nottingham-Lincoln line, with roughly hourly trains to Nottingham.  This may not seem much to say about the place, but it's all I could get out of Wikipedia.  The Lowdham ward includes the nearby villages of Bulcote, Gunthorpe, Caythorpe, Hoveringham, Gonalston and Epperstone.

The politics of the ward are even less interesting than its Wikipedia entry: in 2003, 2007 and 2011 it elected two Conservative councillors unopposed.  The most recent contested local election in the area was the 2009 Nottinghamshire county council election, with the Conservatives winning the local county division (Farnsfield and Lowdham) by almost five to one against only Labour opposition.

Thursday's by-election will be the first contested election in Lowdham ward since it took on its current boundaries in 2003 (Newark and Sherwood was re-warded in 2007 but this ward wasn't changed).  Four candidates have been nominated: Tim Wendels for the Conservatives, Daniel Hibberd for Labour, Liberal Democrat William Davison and independent Tim Cutler.

Nottinghamshire county council division: Farnsfield and Lowdham
Parliamentary constituency: Newark
ONS Travel to Work Area: Nottingham

Tim Cutler (Ind)
William Davison (LD)
Daniel Hibberd (Lab)
Tim Wendels (C)

May 2011 result 2 C unop
May 2007 result 2 C unop
May 2003 result 2 C unop
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #105 on: April 11, 2012, 07:01:40 pm »
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Barnet, East Finchley

Lab 67.8 (+24.7)
Con 17.4 (-8.5)
Lib Dem 14.8 (-7.6)

Newark and Sherwood, Lowdham

Con 51.5
Lib Dem 34.9
Lab 7.7
Ind 6.0

Darlington, Hurworth

Lib Dem 43.7 (-12.9)
Con 40.2 (+8.0)
Lab 13.3 (+2.1)
UKIP 2.9 (+2.9)

Darlington, Harrowgate Hill

Con 43.8 (+3.2)
Lab 38.3 (-21.1)
Lib Dem 9.0 (+9.0)
UKIP 6.0 (+6.0)
Eng First 3.0 (+3.0)
« Last Edit: April 12, 2012, 05:33:09 pm by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #106 on: April 12, 2012, 06:16:47 pm »
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Never really understood why voters punish a party when one of their councillors gets charged for child pornography etc in the ensuing by-election - it's not as if they'd stand a candidate knowing such a thing, and there's no possible way of screening them out.
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« Reply #107 on: April 12, 2012, 07:21:30 pm »
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Agreed, but it almost always happens. Just one of those things.
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« Reply #108 on: April 19, 2012, 05:07:59 pm »
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With just two weeks to go before the May elections, people looking for some electoral straws in the wind have four by-elections to chew on in London and the South East, three of which are in wards which will seem strangely familiar to those who follow local by-elections closely.

GORESBROOK, Barking and Dagenham, North London; caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Louise Couling due to ill-health.  She had been on leave of absence from the council for over a year.

Barking and Dagenham is one of those places where ward names don't mean a lot to people not from the area.  The Goresbrook ward is named after the Gores Brook and specifically Goresbrook Park at its centre, an area of land which was left undeveloped due to its low-lying flood plain nature when the rest of the area was built on as part of the enormous Becontree Estate.  The ward, which straddles the old boundary between Barking and Dagenham, lies between the A13 Ripple Lane to the south and the District Line to the north; just outside the north-west corner is the Becontree underground station on the District Line.  The population of the ward is generally white working-class, and the area scores poorly on the deprivation indices.

The ward has a very unusual recent electoral history, although you wouldn't have been able to tell from the May 2002 result which resulted in a safe Labour win of all three seats against only two Liberal Democrat candidates.  The fun started in September 2004 when a by-election was held here which resulted in a gain for Dan Kelly, representing the British National Party.  It was the first BNP seat on Barking and Dagenham council, at the time the only BNP council seat in London, and an omen of things to come. 

Dan Kelly's time as a councillor was short-lived due to poor health and he resigned after a few months, forcing a further by-election in June 2005 at which Labour's candidate Warren Northover regained the seat.  However, the fun was not over; between the two by-elections was the 2005 general election at which the BNP candidate for Barking, Richard Barnbrook, finished a strong third just 27 votes behind the Conservatives, although well behind the re-elected Labour MP Margaret Hodge.

Hodge talked up the BNP threat before the 2006 borough elections.  Her fears were well founded; the BNP could only find thirteen candidates across the borough but twelve of them got elected with vote shares that suggested the BNP could have seriously challenged for control of the council had they nominated a full slate.  Two of the BNP councillors - Richard Barnbrook and Tracy Lansdown - were elected in first and second place in Goresbrook ward, with Warren Northover the only Labour councillor to be re-elected, coming in third place.

Barnbrook rose highly in the ranks of the London BNP, becoming the leader of the BNP's largest council group.  In 2008 he was the BNP candidate for Mayor of London and top of the BNP list for the London Assembly.  He came a strong third to Boris and Ken in his own ward (Boris topping the poll) and the BNP topped the poll here in the list section of the London Assembly ballot.  Across London the BNP list narrowly made it over the 5% threshold for representation in the Assembly and Barnbrook became the GLA's first BNP member.

In 2010 Labour got their act together as the main BNP opposition, prompted by the BNP leader Nick Griffin standing in Barking at the general election which was held simultaneously with the London borough elections.  Allowing for boundary changes, Griffin actually polled a lower share of the vote than Barnbrook had in 2005, while the increased turnout allowed Labour to defeat every BNP councillor - and every other opposition councillor, Labour finishing with all 51 seats on the council.  This despite Labour deselecting their only Goresbrook councillor Warren Northover, who stood in the ward as an independent and came last.

Labour didn't hold all 51 seats for long: it turned out that Louise Couling, one of their new Goresbrook councillors, was ineligible to be a councillor as she worked for the council as a lollipop lady.  This prompted an immediate by-election in July 2010, at which Couling, now no longer a lollipop lady, faced off against Richard Barnbrook for the second time and won again, though rather more narrowly.  Couling has now caused a second by-election in this ward through her resignation.

For the by-election Labour have selected Simon Bremner, a local school governor who has fought a council by-election before, although he won't want the voters to be reminded of his performance at the 2003 Longbridge ward by-election in which he lost the seat to the Conservatives on a massive swing.  Richard Barnbrook has left the BNP after unsuccessfully challenging Griffin for the party leadership in 2010, and their new standard-bearer in the ward is Bob Taylor.  The other candidates are Robert Hills who is standing for the Lib Dems, Mohammed Riaz for the Conservatives and John Dias-Broughton who has the UKIP nomination.

Parliamentary constituency: Barking
GLA constituency: City and East

Simon Bremner (Lab)
John Dias-Broughton (UKIP)
Robert Hills (LD)
Mohammed Riaz (C)
Bob Taylor (BNP)

July 2010 by-election Lab 881 BNP 642 LD 136 C 108 Ind 63 UKIP 50 Ind 11
May 2010 result Lab 2142/1963/1872 BNP 1340/1146/1128 C 644/533 LD 457/347 Ind 335
May 2006 result BNP 1434/1357 Lab 1204/1162/1135 C 373 UKIP 367
June 2005 by-election Lab 1227 BNP 791 UKIP 216 C 167
Sept 2004 by-election BNP 1072 Lab 602 UKIP 137 C 111 LD 85 Grn 59
May 2002 result Lab 847/842/778 LD 520/509
2008 GLA results (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Boris 753 Ken 681 BNP (Barnbrook) 429 Paddick 127 Chr 63 Grn 26 UKIP 23 EDP 13 Left 8 Winston McKenzie 5
List: BNP 740 Lab 632 C 369 Chr 102 LD 82 Grn 56 Abolish Congestion Charge 54 UKIP 53 EDP 26 Respect 26 Left 7 One London 4 Unity for Peace and Socialism 1 Rathy Alagaratnam 1
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #109 on: April 19, 2012, 05:09:12 pm »
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(Part II)

SPITALFIELDS AND BANGLATOWN, Tower Hamlets, North London; caused by the disqualification of ex-Labour councillor Shelina Akhtar who was sentenced to sixteen weeks in prison for benefit fraud; she had left the Labour party to join the independent group on the council supporting the elected mayor Lutfur Rahman.

From Becontree station, the underground station for Goresbrook ward, it's only twelve stops up the District Line to Aldgate East, the underground station for Spitalfields and Banglatown ward.  Both wards are part of the London Assembly's City and East constituency.  However, they could not be more different.

Directly north-east of the ancient City of London, Spitalfields and Banglatown ward is an entirely built-up area lying to the north of Whitechapel Road, to the west of Vallence Road and to the south of Quaker Street.  In contrast to Goresbrook's White British nature, Spitalfields has been a centre for immigration for centuries, starting in the late seventeenth century when Huguenot silk weavers set up here; they were followed by Irish weavers in the eighteenth century, Jewish refugees in the nineteenth century, and Bangladeshi immigrants in the twentieth century who made Brick Lane, which runs north to south through the centre of the ward, famous for its curry houses.  In the 2001 census this ward was 70% non-white and 58% of the population were recorded as Bangladeshi; the 2002 ward boundary review added the name Banglatown to the ward to reflect its demographic makeup.

The north-western end of the ward, including the Old Spitalfields Market and the Liberty of Norton Folgate (which until 1921 was a real place rather than a Madness album), is rapidly gentrifying thanks to its proximity to the City and association with famous artists; Gilbert and George and Tracey Emin all live in Spitalfields.  Another Spitalfields resident is the architectural historian Dan Cruickshank, who must take some responsibility for some of the gentrification thanks to a successful campaign to save Spitalfields' Georgian merchant terraces from demolition.  By contrast, the ward's four other census areas are all among the most deprived in the country.

The politics of the ward looked simple when it was created in 2002, Labour winning by a large margin from the Conservatives.  Two of the three Labour councillors elected were Helal Abbas and Lutfur Rahman, and the power struggle between them for the council leadership has been a leitmotif of Private Eye's Rotten Boroughs column for much of the period since.

In the years from 2002 to 2006 minor parties started to get in on the act in Tower Hamlets: Respect won their first council seat at a 2004 by-election in St Dunstans and Stepney Green ward, and a couple of months later the Conservatives won their first ever seat on Tower Hamlets council at a by-election in Millwall ward, the scene of that notorious 1993 by-election which elected the first ever BNP councillor (although the BNP have not had a presence here since).  Then in 2005 Respect, in the shape of George Galloway, gained the Bethnal Green and Bow parliamentary constituency, and followed up in 2006 with a strong assault on the council which Labour were lucky to withstand; Respect became the main opposition group and the Labour majority was cut to one.  One of Respect's twelve council seats came in Spitalfields and Banglatown ward, with Abbas and Rahman the two remaining Labour councillors.

The Respect breakthrough was short-lived and by 2008 the group had fallen apart, with some of its members defecting to Labour and some of the rest ending up in a Left List group reflecting the split in Respect more generally.  Respect and the Left List stood against each other at the 2008 GLA election; the Left List made no impact whatsoever but Respect came second in Spitalfields and Banglatown on the list ballot.  The ward voted overwhelmingly for Ken Livingstone as Mayor.

In May 2010 a referendum was held in Tower Hamlets following a controversial petition for an elected mayor; this resulted in a 60% Yes vote.  At the same time Labour greatly increased their majority at the Tower Hamlets council election, Respect being reduced to one seat.  Rahman and Abbas were re-elected as councillors for Spitalfields and Banglatown and were joined by their running-mate Shelina Akhtar who defeated the Respect councillor Fozol Miah.

The Yes vote in the referendum meant that there was a mayoral election in October 2010.  Following a very messy selection the then council leader Helal Abbas ended up as the Labour candidate with former council leader Lutfur Rahman standing against him as an independent with Respect support.  Rahman won in the first round.  This prompted a by-election in Spitalfields and Banglatown in December 2010 which Labour lost to the Respect candidate, former councillor Fozol Miah.

Since Rahman's election as Mayor several Labour councillors have left the party to form an Independent group on the council supporting Rahman.  One of them was his former ward colleague Shelina Akhtar, whose prosecution has resulted in a second by-election in this ward in seventeen months.

For this by-election Labour have selected former Tower Hamlets councillor Ala Uddin, seeking to return to the council after a ten-year break.  His main competition will probably come from Independent candidate Gulam Robbani, who was Rahman's election agent in the Mayoral election and then worked as an aide for Rahman; Rahman has signed Robbani's nomination papers.  There is no Respect candidate this time so the winner will probably come from those two.  Also standing in the by-election are Matthew Smith for the Conservatives, Kirsty Blake for the Green Party and Richard Macmillan for the Lib Dems.

Parliamentary constituency: Bethnal Green and Bow
GLA constituency: City and East

Kirsty Blake (Grn)
Richard Macmillan (LD)
Gulam Robbani (Ind)
Matthew Smith (C)
Ala Uddin (Lab)

Dec 2010 by-election Respect 666 Lab 553 C 135 Grn 52 LD 33 Ind 28
May 2010 result Lab 1660/1545/1500 Respect 1068/441/437 LD 839/673/532 C 571/561/492 Grn 483/265 Ind 141
May 2006 result Lab 912/860/775 Respect 866/682/471 Ind 716 LD 548/424/354 C 458/329/241 Grn 242/191
May 2002 result Lab 936/848/846 C 400/345/272 LD 255/198/186 Grn 198/146/130 Ind 157/137/124/53
2008 GLA results (excludes postal voters)
Mayor: Ken 1669 Boris 381 Paddick 163 Grn 119 BNP 39 Left 24 Chr 22 UKIP 11 Winston McKenzie 9 EDP 4
List: Lab 914 Respect 540 C 311 Grn 268 LD 184 Abolish Congestion Charge 63 Chr 52 Left 41 BNP 35 One London 30 UKIP 14 EDP 13 Unity for Peace and Socialism 10 Rathy Alagaratnam 4


PLAISTOW, Chichester district council, West Sussex; caused by the resignation of Conservative councillor Linda Westmore.

From Aldgate East station, the underground station for Spitalfields and Banglatown ward, it's only seven stops down the District Line to Plaistow, the underground station for...  Sorry, scrap that.  That's a different Plaistow; this Plaistow is a large and remote rural area on the northern edge of Sussex, including part of the South Downs National Park.  The four main villages in the ward are Lurgashall, Northchapel, Plaistow itself and Loxwood; the nearest towns of any size are Billingshurst and Haslemere.

That's not the interesting thing about this ward.  The really interesting thing is the sheer number of by-elections which this ward generates; this is the fifth by-election here since Plaistow ward was created in 2003, and the eighth election in all during that period.  In May 2003 the ward elected Brian Hooton and Anthony Walker; Walker died shortly afterwards and Paul Mackey won the by-election in August 2003; Hooton and Mackey were re-elected in May 2007; Mackey resigned and John Andrews won the by-election in February 2009; Hooton resigned and Philippa Hardwick won the by-election in February 2010; Andrews resigned and Linda Westmore won the by-election in November 2010; Hardwick and Westmore were re-elected in May 2011; Westmore has now resigned.

All of those councillors were Conservatives, and the defeated Liberal Democrat candidate on every occasion has been Lurgashall parish council chairman Ray Cooper, who is standing again.  Defending this safe ward for the Conservatives this time is Nick Thomas, a former district councillor for Midhurst ward.

West Sussex County Council division: Petworth
Parliamentary constituency: Chichester

Ray Cooper (LD)
Nick Thomas (C)

May 2011 result C 1090/1015 LD 477/462 UKIP 221
Nov 2010 by-election C 416 LD 289 UKIP 62
Feb 2010 by-election C 504 LD 301 BNP 69
Feb 2009 by-election C 455 LD 342
May 2007 result C 1026/977 LD 288/287
Aug 2003 by-election C 471 LD 363 UKIP 62
May 2003 result C 677/667 LD 397/383


WATLINGTON, Oxfordshire county council; caused by the death of Conservative councillor Roger Belson at the age of 62.  A former Irish Guards officer, he was paralysed in a road accident in 1989 but had served as councillor for Watlington since 2001 and was on the council's cabinet from 2005 to 2009.

Watlington is a tiny market town in the Chiltern hills, about fourteen miles south-east of Oxford.  It's at the centre of a large county division which stretches along the Chiltern Hills from Nettlebed in the south to the outskirts of Chinnor in the north-east.  The M40 crosses the north of the division giving good road links to Oxford and London.

On the face of it, this is probably the least interesting of this week's four by-elections, as the two previous results have seen very solid Conservative wins, and the two constituent district council wards (Aston Rowant and Watlington) are also very solid Conservative areas.

The defending Conservative candidate is Caroline Newton, about whom I have no information.  The Lib Dems and Labour have both selected unsuccessful candidates for the district council last year, Nicholas Hancock and James Merritt respectively; Hancock is a Watlington parish councillor.  The ballot paper is completed by UKIP candidate Jonathan Kent.

South Oxfordshire district council wards: Aston Rowant, Watlington
Parliamentary constituency: Henley

Nicholas Hancock (LD)
Jonathan Kent (UKIP)
James Merritt (Lab)
Caroline Newton (C)

June 2009 result C 1720 LD 374 Grn 292 Lab 114
May 2005 result C 2270 LD 1000 Lab 480 Grn 286
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #110 on: April 19, 2012, 07:04:01 pm »
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Oxfordshire, Watlington

Con 62.2 (-6.6)
Lib Dem 18.6 (+3.6)
Lab 11.3 (+6.7)
UKIP 7.9 (+7.9)

Barking and Dagenham, Goresbrook (figures in italics are change since July 2010 by-election)

Lab 57.8 (+14.2) (+11.2)
BNP 30.8 (+3.6) (-3.2)
UKIP 4.7 (+4.7) (+2.1)
Con 4.2 (-8.9) (-1.5)
Lib Dem 2.5 (-6.8 ) (-4.7)

Tower Hamlets, Spitalfields and Banglatown (figures in italics are change since December 2010 by-election)

Ind 44.9 (+41.9) (+43.0)
Lab 43.0 (+8.1) (+5.3)
Con 6.1 (-5.9) (-3.1)
Green 4.3 (-5.8 ) (+0.8 )
Lib Dem 1.7 (-15.9) (-0.5)

(Respect took 22.4 in May 2010 and 45.4 in the by-election)

Chichester, Plaistow

Con 52.7 (-8.3)
Lib Dem 47.3 (+20.6)
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« Reply #111 on: April 19, 2012, 09:05:19 pm »
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What is the party line-up in Parliament now compared to what it was after the last general election?
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« Reply #112 on: April 20, 2012, 08:42:47 am »
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I think you're confusing these with parliamentary by-elections (these are council elections); there's been seven parliamentary by-elections since 2010 and only one has resulted in a gain - George Galloway's Respect from Labour.
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« Reply #113 on: April 20, 2012, 12:02:27 pm »
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Tower Hamlets, Spitalfields and Banglatown (figures in italics are change since December 2010 by-election)

Ind 44.9 (+41.9) (+43.0)
Lab 43.0 (+8.1) (+5.3)
Con 6.1 (-5.9) (-3.1)
Green 4.3 (-5.8 ) (+0.8 )
Lib Dem 1.7 (-15.9) (-0.5)

How many raw votes is that for Robbani and Aladin?
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« Reply #114 on: April 20, 2012, 12:27:54 pm »
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Tower Hamlets, Spitalfields and Banglatown (figures in italics are change since December 2010 by-election)

Ind 44.9 (+41.9) (+43.0)
Lab 43.0 (+8.1) (+5.3)
Con 6.1 (-5.9) (-3.1)
Green 4.3 (-5.8 ) (+0.8 )
Lib Dem 1.7 (-15.9) (-0.5)

How many raw votes is that for Robbani and Aladin?

Ind 1030, Lab 987, Con 140, Green 99, Lib Dem 39
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« Reply #115 on: April 20, 2012, 02:39:39 pm »
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« Reply #116 on: April 20, 2012, 02:42:34 pm »
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It was a Respect-supported Independent hold though, not a gain (a hold after defection, but still.)
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« Reply #117 on: April 20, 2012, 04:55:58 pm »
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'Lose' isn't entirely accurate either; the incumbent was one of Rahman's cronies.
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« Reply #118 on: April 26, 2012, 06:30:42 pm »
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North Norfolk, Waterside (Holy Word here)

Lib Dem 32.2 (-2.7)
Con 27.4 (-8.5)
Lab 16.0 (+1.6)
UKIP 15.2 (+0.4)
Green 4.8 (+4.8 )
Ind 4.5 (+4.5)

Lib Dem hold
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« Reply #119 on: May 03, 2012, 06:10:43 pm »
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Blackpool, Bloomfield

Lab 60.3 (-1.2)
Con 17.8 (-5.1)
Ind 15.9 (+15.9)
Lib Dem 6.0 (+1.9)

Blackpool, Marton

Lab 52.7 (+5.2)
Con 37.0 (-8.0)
Green 5.9 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 4.4 (-3.1)

Brent, Barnhill

Lab 56.5 (+12.1)
Con 28.6 (-5.1)
Green 11.1 (+4.8 )
Ind 3.8 (+3.8 )

Bromley, Bromley Town

Con 45.4 (+3.5)
Lib Dem 20.8 (-1.0)
Lab 19.2 (-0.1)
Green 7.4 (-2.7)
UKIP 7.3 (+0.3)

Camden, Camden Town and Primrose Hill

Lab 46.6 (+10.8 )
Con 20.8 (-0.3)
Lib Dem 18.9 (-11.3)
Green 11.3 (+0.8 )
Ind 2.5 (-)

Cumbria, Kendal Strickland and Fell

Lib Dem 55.7 (-16.5)
Lab 26.1 (+18.9)
Con 12.9 (-4.5)
UKIP 5.3 (+5.3)

East Riding of Yorkshire, South East Holderness

Con 37.5 (-1.3)
Lab 31.9 (+9.6)
Ind 30.6 (+5.5)

Hackney, Hackney Central

Lab 68.2 (+13.6)
Green 15.3 (+1.6)
Lib Dem 11.0 (-12.0)
Con 5.5 (-3.2)

Hertfordshire, Meriden Tudor

Lib Dem 40.2 (-3.6)
Lab 25.8 (+13.0)
Con 17.4 (-10.3)
UKIP 11.5 (+11.5)
Green 5.0 (-2.5)

Islington, Holloway

Lab 57.0 (+11.0)
Con 16.3 (+2.5)
Green 14.9 (+3.4)
Lib Dem 11.9 (-16.7)

Kingston-upon-Thames, Coombe Hill

Con 53.8 (+1.2)
Lab 17.4 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 13.7 (-12.4)
Green 7.9 (-0.8 )
UKIP 5.0 (+5.0)
CPA 2.2 (+0.5)

Merton, Wimbledon Park

Con 47.6 (+4.8 )
Lab 24.1 (+5.7)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-5.8 )
Green 6.6 (-0.8 )

North Yorkshire, Central Richmondshire

Richmondshire Ind 43.7 (+18.5)
Con 41.1 (-3.4)
Lab 15.2 (+10.3)

Richmond-upon-Thames, North Richmond

Con 43.2 (-3.7)
Lib Dem 39.5 (-4.2)
Lab 9.1 (-0.3)
Green 5.1 (+5.1)
Ind 3.1 (+3.1)

Richmondshire, Hornby Castle

Con 51.5
Richmondshire Ind 37.1
Lab 11.4

Suffolk, Bixley

Con 43.8 (-11.3)
Lab 28.6 (+15.0)
UKIP 11.6 (+11.6)
Green 9.6 (-4.4)
Lib Dem 6.4 (-10.9)

Surrey, Worplesdon (changes in italics since July 2010 by-election)

Con 53.6 (+5.1) (-)
Lib Dem 32.7 (-2.4) (-4.7)
Lab 13.7 (+9.5) (+8.1)

Tower Hamlets, Weavers'

Lab 40.3 (+4.1)
Respect 32.8 (+15.5)
Con 10.8 (-0.9)
Green 9.7 (-1.1)
Lib Dem 5.4 (-18.6)
Ind 0.9 (+0.9)

Westminster, Hyde Park

Con 57.8 (+10.4)
Lab 22.5 (+22.5)
Green 7.3 (-17.7)
Lib Dem 7.1 (-20.5)
UKIP 3.8 (+3.8 )
Ind 1.6 (+1.6)
« Last Edit: May 04, 2012, 11:18:53 am by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #120 on: May 03, 2012, 07:55:56 pm »
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Just to be clear: there is no Holy Word this week.  Normal service will be resumed next week when there is a by-election and a postponed poll.
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #121 on: May 04, 2012, 10:23:17 pm »
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Blackpool, Bloomfield

Lab 60.3 (-1.2)
Con 17.8 (-5.1)
Ind 15.9 (+15.9)
Lib Dem 6.0 (+1.9)

Blackpool, Marton

Lab 52.7 (+5.2)
Con 37.0 (-8.0)
Green 5.9 (+5.9)
Lib Dem 4.4 (-3.1)

Brent, Barnhill

Lab 56.5 (+12.1)
Con 28.6 (-5.1)
Green 11.1 (+4.8 )
Ind 3.8 (+3.8 )

Bromley, Bromley Town

Con 45.4 (+3.5)
Lib Dem 20.8 (-1.0)
Lab 19.2 (-0.1)
Green 7.4 (-2.7)
UKIP 7.3 (+0.3)

Camden, Camden Town and Primrose Hill

Lab 46.6 (+10.8 )
Con 20.8 (-0.3)
Lib Dem 18.9 (-11.3)
Green 11.3 (+0.8 )
Ind 2.5 (-)

Cumbria, Kendal Strickland and Fell

Lib Dem 55.7 (-16.5)
Lab 26.1 (+18.9)
Con 12.9 (-4.5)
UKIP 5.3 (+5.3)

East Riding of Yorkshire, South East Holderness

Con 37.5 (-1.3)
Lab 31.9 (+9.6)
Ind 30.6 (+5.5)

Hackney, Hackney Central

Lab 68.2 (+13.6)
Green 15.3 (+1.6)
Lib Dem 11.0 (-12.0)
Con 5.5 (-3.2)

Hertfordshire, Meriden Tudor

Lib Dem 40.2 (-3.6)
Lab 25.8 (+13.0)
Con 17.4 (-10.3)
UKIP 11.5 (+11.5)
Green 5.0 (-2.5)

Islington, Holloway

Lab 57.0 (+11.0)
Con 16.3 (+2.5)
Green 14.9 (+3.4)
Lib Dem 11.9 (-16.7)

Kingston-upon-Thames, Coombe Hill

Con 53.8 (+1.2)
Lab 17.4 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 13.7 (-12.4)
Green 7.9 (-0.8 )
UKIP 5.0 (+5.0)
CPA 2.2 (+0.5)

Merton, Wimbledon Park

Con 47.6 (+4.8 )
Lab 24.1 (+5.7)
Lib Dem 21.7 (-5.8 )
Green 6.6 (-0.8 )

North Yorkshire, Central Richmondshire

Richmondshire Ind 43.7 (+18.5)
Con 41.1 (-3.4)
Lab 15.2 (+10.3)

Richmond-upon-Thames, North Richmond

Con 43.2 (-3.7)
Lib Dem 39.5 (-4.2)
Lab 9.1 (-0.3)
Green 5.1 (+5.1)
Ind 3.1 (+3.1)

Richmondshire, Hornby Castle

Con 51.5
Richmondshire Ind 37.1
Lab 11.4

Suffolk, Bixley

Con 43.8 (-11.3)
Lab 28.6 (+15.0)
UKIP 11.6 (+11.6)
Green 9.6 (-4.4)
Lib Dem 6.4 (-10.9)

Surrey, Worplesdon (changes in italics since July 2010 by-election)

Con 53.6 (+5.1) (-)
Lib Dem 32.7 (-2.4) (-4.7)
Lab 13.7 (+9.5) (+8.1)

Tower Hamlets, Weavers'

Lab 40.3 (+4.1)
Respect 32.8 (+15.5)
Con 10.8 (-0.9)
Green 9.7 (-1.1)
Lib Dem 5.4 (-18.6)
Ind 0.9 (+0.9)

Westminster, Hyde Park

Con 57.8 (+10.4)
Lab 22.5 (+22.5)
Green 7.3 (-17.7)
Lib Dem 7.1 (-20.5)
UKIP 3.8 (+3.8 )
Ind 1.6 (+1.6)

Worth quoting - forgot to check back on these, and found they were hidden away on the last page.
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« Reply #122 on: May 05, 2012, 08:43:09 am »
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There are a couple of results where my 2010/11 figures may have weaknesses (there were 5 independent candidates in Holderness for three seats and no turnout figure so I summed up and divided by 3, and in Westminster there were only 2 Lib Dem and 1 Green candidates in 2010 against three Tories and no Labour) but the figures as they stand are uniformly dire for the Lib Dems, particularly in places like Islington and Kingston. (They didn't stand in Brent, Holderness or the North Yorkshire seat all of which they had contested last time round.)
« Last Edit: May 05, 2012, 08:55:26 am by ObserverIE »Logged

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« Reply #123 on: May 05, 2012, 08:46:15 am »
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I sense a story behind that Hertfordshire result. Either a story about this election or about the place it was held in.
EDIT: Ah, I see it's part of Watford. That makes more sense.
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« Reply #124 on: May 10, 2012, 10:48:55 am »
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This week's Holy Word:

http://britainvotes.survation.com/2012/05/local-council-by-election-preview-10th-may/
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