Not bad. But, IMHO, Tisei must run for this seat in 2010 - he would have great chances. With Obama being relatively popular in Massachusetts and Warren presenting a very strong challenge to Brown it will be more difficult in 2012. I easily see Tisei getting 45%, but remaining 5% may be a serious problem.
Well, the good news for Tisei is that he'll have Romney on the ballot, who is still quite popular amongst Massachusetts Republicans and Independents (the erosion in his numbers came disproportionately from Democrats). And Scott Brown should carry this district, even if he loses overall.
I agree, Tisei's chances may have been better in 2010, but Tierney still has severe ethics issues and redistricting made things slightly more favorable for Tisei. It's somewhat comparable to the seats MA Republicans picked up in 1992 from the Democrats under investigation for abusing their banking privleges.