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Author Topic: Scottish Independence Referendum 2014  (Read 4391 times)
afleitch
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« on: January 11, 2012, 05:56:57 pm »
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Yes, it be years away but it's been a very big news item these past few days. Despite the Coalition and Labour (in a rare show of unity) want Salmond to put it to a referendum sooner rather than later, Salmond has announced that proposals will be published indicating a referendum in 2014. While this has been suggested by some as co-inciding with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn (which of course it does...) more likely it will take place in the autumn following the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow; a major patriotic showpiece.
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2012, 07:00:08 pm »
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Does Scotland compete separately in the Commonwealth Games?
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« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2012, 07:17:12 pm »
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Does Scotland compete separately in the Commonwealth Games?

Yes, as do England, Wales, Northern Ireland, Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man (who have a pretty good cyclist, name of Cavendish).
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2012, 07:55:20 am »
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Do we have a date?
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afleitch
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2012, 08:04:58 am »
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Do we have a date?

The Scottish Parliament passed a notion affirming an independence referendum in the Autumn of 2014

"Parliament recognises the mandate given to the Scottish government by the people of Scotland in the May 2011 Scottish election to hold a referendum offering people the choice to decide their future and agrees that it is the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament to decide the timing and arrangements for the referendum; welcomes the announcement of autumn 2014 as the date for Scotland's referendum; believes that 16 and 17-year-olds on the electoral roll should have the opportunity to vote, as it is their future along with everyone else's that will be determined by the result; encourages all Scots to take part in the Scottish government's consultation on the referendum to be launched in the week beginning 23 January 2012, and affirms that constitutional change is a process and that what ultimately matters is that the people who care most about Scotland, the people who live in Scotland, achieve a parliament with the powers and responsibilities of independence to grow the economy, create jobs, build a strong society and give all of Scotland's people the life chances that they deserve."

And that was Labour's motion that passed.
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2012, 08:13:05 am »
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"Autumn" is not a date. I wanted to be able to count down the days til Independence. Sad
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« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2012, 06:13:00 am »
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Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).
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There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2012, 06:17:22 am »
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Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?
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afleitch
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« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2012, 02:20:06 pm »
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Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

Cameron's hands are tied effectively. The current stramash relates to whether Westminster or Holyrood are in charge of holding it. The argument that the SNP have a mandate in Scotland and the Coalition do not is a very powerful one.

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.
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« Reply #9 on: January 15, 2012, 02:22:29 pm »
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Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.

Find that interesting considering you're a Tory, but I guess it's not my place. How come, if you don't me asking?
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afleitch
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« Reply #10 on: January 15, 2012, 02:30:13 pm »
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Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.

Find that interesting considering you're a Tory, but I guess it's not my place. How come, if you don't me asking?

Because I'm the sort of nerd who reads into the figures and everything I've read pretty much demonstrates that we would be in good economical shape to go it alone. Also, Nat posturing on the issue aside we were shafted when it came to oil and gas revenues.

The future for Scotland is in drinkable water and renewable energy. We also have a very good potential for being a base for 'clean coal' once the technology becomes available (the Scottish Government has identified and marketed viable sites)

The UK government is dragging it's heels on full fiscal autonomy which would give us a greater element of control over our affairs on these matters which has angered me a great deal.
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« Reply #11 on: January 15, 2012, 11:50:08 pm »
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Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).

Wouldn't an independent Scotland (if it actually comes to pass by 2014) hurt the Labour Party more than the Conservatives? 
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« Reply #12 on: January 16, 2012, 12:42:23 am »
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How much is Cameron willing to go to frustrate the vote? He can threaten to veto Scotland's entry into the EU and UN and ask the nitty-gritty details of independence. Also, what will happen to Northern Ireland, given that most Protestants there are connected to Scotland? Then will the remaining England and Wales be viewed as a successor of the UKGBNI, similar to the Russian Federation being viewed as the successor to the USSR, or will it be a totally new entity? Many countries will demand that the rump England and Wales be stripped of its status at the UN Security Council. And that's before thousands of bilateral agreements get negotiated.

To a layman it seems like a very British Yugoslavia.
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2012, 05:33:22 am »
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How much is Cameron willing to go to frustrate the vote? He can threaten to veto Scotland's entry into the EU and UN and ask the nitty-gritty details of independence.

Which would be a preposterous threat to make - and a very unlikely one.

Also, what will happen to Northern Ireland, given that most Protestants there are connected to Scotland?

I don't really see what that's got to do with anything.


Then will the remaining England and Wales be viewed as a successor of the UKGBNI, similar to the Russian Federation being viewed as the successor to the USSR, or will it be a totally new entity?

The remainder of the UK would quite clearly be the successor state by all reasonable determinations.

Many countries will demand that the rump England and Wales be stripped of its status at the UN Security Council. And that's before thousands of bilateral agreements get negotiated.

What countries? Any serious ones that could prevent anything? I doubt it.

And as a successor state, the bilateral agreements would remain in force.
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afleitch
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« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2012, 07:30:55 am »
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Absolutely. The rump of the UK would be seen as the successor state; to all intents and purposes the UK would still be the UK, it just wouldn't have Scotland. Scotland may legally be considered a successor to in terms of international agreements etc, but wouldn't be looking for a top spot at the table. Scotland would be given almost immediate membership of the UN. Any opposition to Scotland joining the EU would be more likely to come from countires such as Spain for obvious reasons.
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« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2012, 08:27:28 am »
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I'm curious what would happen to NI given that most Unionists are "ethnically" scottish.
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« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2012, 09:39:22 am »
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It would cause a significant degree of consternation in certain parts of Ulster, yes, but no more than that. Or, anyway, no more than it would have an impact on Wales.
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« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2012, 11:05:47 am »
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I strongly disagree. It's always been "England and Wales".
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« Reply #18 on: January 16, 2012, 11:19:24 am »
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Not quite sure what you mean. Devolution is a political reality in Wales as much as it is in Northern Ireland; serious administrative devolution started in the 1960s and we have had our own regional government since 1999. Obviously Scottish Independence would change the relationship between Whitehall and Cathays Park.
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« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2012, 11:23:55 am »
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I'm curious what would happen to NI given that most Unionists are "ethnically" scottish.

Nothing.
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« Reply #20 on: January 16, 2012, 11:35:54 am »
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Northern Ireland was created form Ireland; which was a dominion of sorts. Wales had no devo and rejected the idea in it's first referendum on the idea. They can not be compared. NI is unique, not just in the UK but in the world; it's one of a kind.
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« Reply #21 on: January 16, 2012, 11:37:31 am »
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http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/opinion-where-will-scottish-independence-leave-northern-ireland-unionists-16104176.html
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Some moderate Ulster Unionists have traditionally seen themselves as both Irish and British (and they cheer for the Irish rugby team). But if there is no such thing as "British" any more, where is the Ulster Unionist identity?

Read more: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/opinion-where-will-scottish-independence-leave-northern-ireland-unionists-16104176.html#ixzz1jdkCKkje
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« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2012, 11:44:05 am »
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In addition to my other question earlier in this thread, I also want to ask this:

The official name of what we know as the 'United Kingdom' is the 'United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland'.  In the aftermath of a vote for independence by Scotland, will there need to be a name change?  
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« Reply #23 on: January 16, 2012, 12:00:08 pm »
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In addition to my other question earlier in this thread, I also want to ask this:

The official name of what we know as the 'United Kingdom' is the 'United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland'.  In the aftermath of a vote for independence by Scotland, will there need to be a name change?  

Well the 'United Kingdoms' are England, Scotland and Ireland. Britain was used post 1603 so you had the United Kingdom of Great Britain until 1801. Ireland was added but this was re-named upon the creation of Eire.

Technically (and this is where it gets complicated) there would still be a 'United Kingdom' if Scotland kept it's monarch. Dynastically, the Kingdoms of England and Scotland would still be in a 'personal union' (there is no political desire to have a Republic in Scotland as of yet amongst the SNP hierarchy) and therefore still a United Kingdom, but not for political purposes. But I don't think that term would ever be used for that purpose. For continuity it would be possible to have the United Kingdom of England and Northern Ireland but that may irk the Welsh. The use of the term Britain too would probably have to revert to the geographical term for the island. So I actually think while 'Britain' will be dropped, the term United Kingdom will be retained with 'England' used in shorthand (which it tends to be for alot of people anyway)

Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).

Wouldn't an independent Scotland (if it actually comes to pass by 2014) hurt the Labour Party more than the Conservatives?  

Yes, but not as much as people assume. It wouldn't have made the slightest difference to the results from 1997-2005 for example in terms of seats; there would still have been a Labour majority. It would make 2015 more difficult for Labour yes with the new seats being factored in too.
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« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2012, 12:10:45 pm »
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Northern Ireland was created form Ireland; which was a dominion of sorts. Wales had no devo and rejected the idea in it's first referendum on the idea. They can not be compared. NI is unique, not just in the UK but in the world; it's one of a kind.

Again, I'm not quite sure if I understand your point. The origins of Northern Ireland won't have any bearing on how its relationship with Whitehall will alter if Scotland leaves the Union. And devolution is certainly no more of a reality in Northern Ireland than in Wales; if anything it is less of one, as it has been established that political devolution can be immediately withdrawn if Westminster deems such an act necessary, and as the government in Northern Ireland must be formed in a way that pleases Westminster.

Also, your history is a little dodgy, but I'll let that pass.
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