Scottish Independence Referendum 2014

[Vasall des Midas]

So no desire for a republic, then?

Can't scare the waverers given what polls are. Tartan Tories might like Independence and the Queen. And there's always the contentious issue of how you select the President and what powers you give him - remember Australia.

[afleitch]

So no desire for a republic, then?

Can't scare the waverers given what polls are. Tartan Tories might like Independence and the Queen. And there's always the contentious issue of how you select the President and what powers you give him - remember Australia.

Yes. It would be easy to scare people with 'President Salmond', as some already have done. I have enjoyed the 'campaign' so far; SNP taking it seriously, the other parties not so. Which is annoying but reminds me of the 2011 campaign.

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

[JonBidinger]

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

Smart politicians will find a way. Re-elect us to safeguard our new independence!

[Insula Dei]

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

Smart politicians will find a way. Re-elect us to safeguard our new independence!

It doesn't tend to work that way. Once the mission is accomplished broad-tent  parties with a clear-defined goal like the SNP fall apart. Their only hope to continue to exist is if there is some collective other goal to be worked towards/ collective ideological background, or if they somehow manage to throw themselves up as the 'natural party of government' of the new political entity they have created (think: ANC). I don't think the SNP is Scotland's natural party of government and they don't seem to have a very clear-defined ideological profile beyond their nationalist aspirations.

[YL]

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

So how do you think post-independence politics would play out in Scotland?  Assuming Labour become the "natural party of government", who would be their main rivals?

[afleitch]

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

So how do you think post-independence politics would play out in Scotland?  Assuming Labour become the "natural party of government", who would be their main rivals?

I doubt that assumption could be made. Remember that the SNP are not wishing to be Labour's opposition; they want to replace it

[Sibboleth]

I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

[Vasall des Midas]

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

[afleitch]

I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

Independence is in my view the only way for a Conservative Party revival. Of course, the party that organised wouldn't be the Tories; they would need to dissolve and form a right of centre party with the remnant Liberals and some SNP defections. I can't see the need for a Lib Dem party but I would consider that the Greens would remain and probably strengthen.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

Independence is in my view the only way for a Conservative Party revival. Of course, the party that organised wouldn't be the Tories; they would need to dissolve and form a right of centre party with the remnant Liberals and some SNP defections. I can't see the need for a Lib Dem party but I would consider that the Greens would remain and probably strengthen.

If they keep AMS (or even move to a list system) the parties would massively fracture - Europe style.

[Vasall des Midas]

I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

Independence is in my view the only way for a Conservative Party revival. Of course, the party that organised wouldn't be the Tories; they would need to dissolve and form a right of centre party with the remnant Liberals and some SNP defections.

Yeah, that's the "more bourgeois alternative" path. It obviously has more longterm potential than the other one. Though things'd have to go fairly badly for the SNP for this to be much more than the Portuguese PP (or, you know, the current Tories in Scotland).

Good point about the Greens, I suppose.

[afleitch]

Good point about the Greens, I suppose.

The Greens are well placed to appeal to the 'bourgeois left' should the Lib Dems vacate the scene



I had forgot to post this. This is of course the council results for 2007 for the Greens where they stood. Strong results in the well to do areas of Glasgow and Edinburgh (and not just students) likwise in Fife, places like Dunblane, North Berwick, Strathaven, Lanark etc

[You kip if you want to...]

Good point about the Greens, I suppose.

The Greens are well placed to appeal to the 'bourgeois left' should the Lib Dems vacate the scene



I had forgot to post this. This is of course the council results for 2007 for the Greens where they stood. Strong results in the well to do areas of Glasgow and Edinburgh (and not just students) likwise in Fife, places like Dunblane, North Berwick, Strathaven, Lanark etc

The Libs still appeal to the bourgeois left?

[Sibboleth]

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

Yeah, but it would become much more apparent in the event of independence (and possibly even further devolution, though I'm less sure about that). Which would have some impact on the structure of the party system, though Lord knows what.

[Χahar]

Would I be off-base in thinking that a large number of Tories and Nationalists might gather themselves into one right-wing organization?

[afleitch]

Would I be off-base in thinking that a large number of Tories and Nationalists might gather themselves into one right-wing organization?

I would hope so, but I can hardly get them in one room without a fight never mind a party.

[Sibboleth]

Random:



(actually it's not random at all, but, whateversky)

[asexual trans victimologist]

I think it's cute that Rupe's using the language of 'competition' and, by implication, 'markets' to describe the phenomenon of being a nation-state.

[afleitch]

This one is cute.

The PNV in Eusakdi have apparently proposed a draft law that would replace Madrid with Edinburgh as their capital.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/03/31/peter-cruddas-scottish-independence_n_1393744.html?ref=uk

Just lovely.