Scottish Independence Referendum 2014

[afleitch]

Yes, it be years away but it's been a very big news item these past few days. Despite the Coalition and Labour (in a rare show of unity) want Salmond to put it to a referendum sooner rather than later, Salmond has announced that proposals will be published indicating a referendum in 2014. While this has been suggested by some as co-inciding with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn (which of course it does...) more likely it will take place in the autumn following the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow; a major patriotic showpiece.

[afleitch]

Do we have a date?

The Scottish Parliament passed a notion affirming an independence referendum in the Autumn of 2014

"Parliament recognises the mandate given to the Scottish government by the people of Scotland in the May 2011 Scottish election to hold a referendum offering people the choice to decide their future and agrees that it is the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament to decide the timing and arrangements for the referendum; welcomes the announcement of autumn 2014 as the date for Scotland's referendum; believes that 16 and 17-year-olds on the electoral roll should have the opportunity to vote, as it is their future along with everyone else's that will be determined by the result; encourages all Scots to take part in the Scottish government's consultation on the referendum to be launched in the week beginning 23 January 2012, and affirms that constitutional change is a process and that what ultimately matters is that the people who care most about Scotland, the people who live in Scotland, achieve a parliament with the powers and responsibilities of independence to grow the economy, create jobs, build a strong society and give all of Scotland's people the life chances that they deserve."

And that was Labour's motion that passed.

[afleitch]

Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

Cameron's hands are tied effectively. The current stramash relates to whether Westminster or Holyrood are in charge of holding it. The argument that the SNP have a mandate in Scotland and the Coalition do not is a very powerful one.

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.

[afleitch]

Will Cameron take a page from Chretien and introduce a "Clarity Act" to move the goalposts or is that too risky?

For the record, at this moment in time I'm leaning towards a 'Yes' vote.

Find that interesting considering you're a Tory, but I guess it's not my place. How come, if you don't me asking?

Because I'm the sort of nerd who reads into the figures and everything I've read pretty much demonstrates that we would be in good economical shape to go it alone. Also, Nat posturing on the issue aside we were shafted when it came to oil and gas revenues.

The future for Scotland is in drinkable water and renewable energy. We also have a very good potential for being a base for 'clean coal' once the technology becomes available (the Scottish Government has identified and marketed viable sites)

The UK government is dragging it's heels on full fiscal autonomy which would give us a greater element of control over our affairs on these matters which has angered me a great deal.

[afleitch]

Absolutely. The rump of the UK would be seen as the successor state; to all intents and purposes the UK would still be the UK, it just wouldn't have Scotland. Scotland may legally be considered a successor to in terms of international agreements etc, but wouldn't be looking for a top spot at the table. Scotland would be given almost immediate membership of the UN. Any opposition to Scotland joining the EU would be more likely to come from countires such as Spain for obvious reasons.

[afleitch]

I'm curious what would happen to NI given that most Unionists are "ethnically" scottish.

Nothing.

[afleitch]

In addition to my other question earlier in this thread, I also want to ask this:

The official name of what we know as the 'United Kingdom' is the 'United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland'.  In the aftermath of a vote for independence by Scotland, will there need to be a name change?  

Well the 'United Kingdoms' are England, Scotland and Ireland. Britain was used post 1603 so you had the United Kingdom of Great Britain until 1801. Ireland was added but this was re-named upon the creation of Eire.

Technically (and this is where it gets complicated) there would still be a 'United Kingdom' if Scotland kept it's monarch. Dynastically, the Kingdoms of England and Scotland would still be in a 'personal union' (there is no political desire to have a Republic in Scotland as of yet amongst the SNP hierarchy) and therefore still a United Kingdom, but not for political purposes. But I don't think that term would ever be used for that purpose. For continuity it would be possible to have the United Kingdom of England and Northern Ireland but that may irk the Welsh. The use of the term Britain too would probably have to revert to the geographical term for the island. So I actually think while 'Britain' will be dropped, the term United Kingdom will be retained with 'England' used in shorthand (which it tends to be for alot of people anyway)

Don't underestimate the mess that would ensue in the rest of Great Britain in the event of a vote for independence.  It would certainly be the end of the Cameron premiership, and probably the end of the Coalition as well (by 2014 I can't see the coalition going on with somebody else at the helm).

Wouldn't an independent Scotland (if it actually comes to pass by 2014) hurt the Labour Party more than the Conservatives?  

Yes, but not as much as people assume. It wouldn't have made the slightest difference to the results from 1997-2005 for example in terms of seats; there would still have been a Labour majority. It would make 2015 more difficult for Labour yes with the new seats being factored in too.

[afleitch]

This idea from Quebec; I'm wondering, if the south of Scotland votes heavily in favour of staying with the UK, but Scotland as a whole votes to go, if there mightn't be a movement to partition the country

I can't imagine that happening, since there's simply no logical place to divide Scotland except maybe the Highland Line, which unless I'm mistaken about recent population dynamics not enough people live north of for that idea to be viable.

No. There won't be a movement to partition the country. There will be a reaonably sized objection to it as there are a lot of English settled in the south (and in the Highlands for that matter; map coming soon) and we saw similar patterns in the Devolution votes of 1979 and 1997, but if Scotland goes it alone then the whole nation will. Even if there was a plea to 'stay' by some areas the UK could not and would not pay them any attention.

[afleitch]

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill/2010-2012/0079/amend/am079-o.htm

The Lord's admendments to the Scotland Bill are fun. The Earl of Caithness wants the UK to vote to approve an independence vote in Scotland, not have the result of the Scottish vote apply to Orkney and Shetland and give Rockall to the UK.

[afleitch]

Read something (well, scan read) that said that the LibDems were going to proposed 'Home Rule' (whatever that means) for Scotland, maybe. Insert one of Dennis Potter's favourite jokes here.

It's alright the LibDems coming up with stupid ideas in opposition, but in government? Stupid's just stupid.

As I understand it, the proposal is a 'counter' to independence; full fiscal autonomy. It's actually a very sensible suggestion (though calling it Home Rule is a bit of an anachronism on their part) Indeed it is pissing me off somewhat that no Westminster party has committed itself to that cause. The Scottish Tories could have and should have embraced that form of radicalism several years ago but failed to do so.

That is part of the reason why I'm inclined to vote in favour of independence, because I don't want the status quo and no party is offering me anything better.

On that note, the Scottish Government is due to publish it's consultation paper on independence today.

[afleitch]

Functionally there wouldn't be that much of a difference between full fiscal autonomy (with all that that implies) and independence. Which is probably why hardly anyone has been advocating it up until now.

The SNP would settle for it though; that is perhaps their long game.

Salmond is currently speaking. The proposed referendum question will be;

"Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?"

A very basic statement. On the face of it, neutral but deep down not so. 'Independent' is a more positive statement than 'Seperation' (ie, Do you believe Scotland should seperate from the UK and become an independent nation)

[afleitch]

Full consultation here;

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0038/00386122.pdf

[afleitch]

So here we go:

A simple YES/NO question.
No turnout rules or thresholds; simple majority YES vote required in line with 1997 referendum.
16 and 17 year olds granted the right to vote.
Spending limits for political parties/pressure groups and individual donors.
Right to vote determined by residency in Scotland – British and Commonwealth citizens, citizens of other EU nations resident in Scotland, members of the House for Lords and resident stationed members of the armed forces.

[afleitch]

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/01/poll-scotland-voters-support

A poll in The Staggers (Never heard of the outfit)

Should Scotland become independent?

YES 44%
NO 45%

[afleitch]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/01/29/alex-salmond-says-uk-maintained-independence-queen_n_1239859.html?ref=uk

What?

Well he's right. Scotland and the rest of Britain would still be in a 'personal union'; for the purposes of Her Majesty, her Kingdom would be united, as it was from 1603-1707

[afleitch]

Yeah, so they'd have a Governor-General and everything basically?

No. As Scotland is a Kingdom not a Dominion.

[afleitch]

So no desire for a republic, then?

Can't scare the waverers given what polls are. Tartan Tories might like Independence and the Queen. And there's always the contentious issue of how you select the President and what powers you give him - remember Australia.

Yes. It would be easy to scare people with 'President Salmond', as some already have done. I have enjoyed the 'campaign' so far; SNP taking it seriously, the other parties not so. Which is annoying but reminds me of the 2011 campaign.

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

[afleitch]

Worth noting as well that should independence be successful, the SNP will probably be finished. It's job will be done.

So how do you think post-independence politics would play out in Scotland?  Assuming Labour become the "natural party of government", who would be their main rivals?

I doubt that assumption could be made. Remember that the SNP are not wishing to be Labour's opposition; they want to replace it

[afleitch]

I think it's more likely that a post-independence SNP would very quickly slide into being a Party of Business with all that that tends to imply.

It sort of has already, though it's political suicide to openly boast about it (Labour too keep quiet)

The Conservatives might linger on for a while, either as a party of United Empire Loyalists or just as a more bourgeois alternative to the SNP - but not both. The LDs' time in Scottish history will probably be over within a term of a successful independence referendum. I'd expect a stable Labour-SNP two-party system.

Independence is in my view the only way for a Conservative Party revival. Of course, the party that organised wouldn't be the Tories; they would need to dissolve and form a right of centre party with the remnant Liberals and some SNP defections. I can't see the need for a Lib Dem party but I would consider that the Greens would remain and probably strengthen.

[afleitch]

Good point about the Greens, I suppose.

The Greens are well placed to appeal to the 'bourgeois left' should the Lib Dems vacate the scene



I had forgot to post this. This is of course the council results for 2007 for the Greens where they stood. Strong results in the well to do areas of Glasgow and Edinburgh (and not just students) likwise in Fife, places like Dunblane, North Berwick, Strathaven, Lanark etc

[afleitch]

Would I be off-base in thinking that a large number of Tories and Nationalists might gather themselves into one right-wing organization?

I would hope so, but I can hardly get them in one room without a fight never mind a party.

[afleitch]

This one is cute.

The PNV in Eusakdi have apparently proposed a draft law that would replace Madrid with Edinburgh as their capital.