Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 27, 2016, 02:05:15 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections
| | |-+  Most likely state for Obama to hold in 2012 vs Romney
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: What Obama state from 2008 is he most likely to win again?
Florida   -2 (3.4%)
Ohio   -44 (74.6%)
North Carolina   -13 (22%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Most likely state for Obama to hold in 2012 vs Romney  (Read 1041 times)
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1583
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

View Profile
« on: January 11, 2012, 06:57:09 pm »
Ignore

This is a tough one, Obama is probably more likely to win Virginia than either of these options but which one of this group he is most likely to win is a fair question.
Ohio- best in 2008, a lot of the blue collar whites he has struggled with and low population growth
Florida- Good numbers with hispanics keep Obama in the game here, a lot of retirees he struggles with though
North Carolina- barely won in 08, but numbers here have dropped notably less than they have nationally.
Logged
redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3820
View Profile
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2012, 06:58:33 pm »
Ignore

I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.
Logged
stegosaurus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 632
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.26, S: 1.83

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2012, 07:03:18 pm »
Ignore

Ohio, probably. I can't imagine Romney striking a chord with blue collar types.
Logged

Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40034
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2012, 07:11:19 pm »
Ignore

Yeah, Romney's going to be a gigantic flop in the Midwest. Ohio should be as solid as a state like Ohio possibly can be for Obama.
Logged

Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18831
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2012, 07:22:08 pm »
Ignore

I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.

There's nothing to suggest he's in DEEP trouble in any of these states.
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
RogueBeaver
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17884
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2012, 07:25:35 pm »
Ignore

Ohio.
Logged

7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - H.L. Mencken
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2790
United States



View Profile
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2012, 07:30:13 pm »
Ignore

Ohio. The blue collar workers don't like robots taking away their jobs and they surely won't enjoy seeing one take the Presidency.
Logged

TheGlobalizer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3287
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2012, 07:31:23 pm »
Ignore

Ohio.  SB5 was a bad unforced error there.  Will carry to the presidential race.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11118
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2012, 07:43:55 pm »
Ignore

Ohio.
Logged
Ljube
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3666
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2012, 09:13:33 pm »
Ignore

Ohio. I think Romney will win the other two easily.
Logged
HST1948
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 550


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2012, 09:36:21 pm »
Ignore

Ohio. Florida had been a bad state for Obama ever since the 2008 Democratic Primary.  North Carolina is starting to look better for Democrats, but is still a conservative state that Obama would need a relatively large national margin to win.  In my opinion, North Carolina is a state that Obama can win, but it won't be a state that brings him to 270 on election day. 
Logged

redcommander
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3820
View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2012, 01:26:24 am »
Ignore

I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.

There's nothing to suggest he's in DEEP trouble in any of these states.

We haven't started the general election campaign yet. It's not going to be close once the conventions are done.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 41925
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2012, 03:48:34 am »
Ignore

1. Ohio
2. North Carolina
3. Florida
Logged

Update lives again on Atlas After Dark. PM me for info.
BlueSwan
blueswan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1113
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2012, 05:27:20 am »
Ignore

Leaning towards Ohio, but I think the numbers for Ohio and Florida are gonna be very close. Both look more likely than North Carolina to me.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18831
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2012, 06:42:05 am »
Ignore

I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.

There's nothing to suggest he's in DEEP trouble in any of these states.

We haven't started the general election campaign yet. It's not going to be close once the conventions are done.

I think it's a bit early to make proclamations like that
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
Marokai Backbeat
Marokai Blue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17570
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -7.39

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2012, 09:23:11 am »
Ignore

I get the feeling my state will hang in there with Obama. I hope, anyway.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines