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| | |-+  Most likely state for Obama to hold in 2012 vs Romney
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Question: What Obama state from 2008 is he most likely to win again?
Florida   -2 (3.4%)
Ohio   -44 (74.6%)
North Carolina   -13 (22%)
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Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Most likely state for Obama to hold in 2012 vs Romney  (Read 729 times)
Devils30
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« on: January 11, 2012, 06:57:09 pm »
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This is a tough one, Obama is probably more likely to win Virginia than either of these options but which one of this group he is most likely to win is a fair question.
Ohio- best in 2008, a lot of the blue collar whites he has struggled with and low population growth
Florida- Good numbers with hispanics keep Obama in the game here, a lot of retirees he struggles with though
North Carolina- barely won in 08, but numbers here have dropped notably less than they have nationally.
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redcommander
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2012, 06:58:33 pm »
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I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.
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stegosaurus
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« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2012, 07:03:18 pm »
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Ohio, probably. I can't imagine Romney striking a chord with blue collar types.
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« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2012, 07:11:19 pm »
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Yeah, Romney's going to be a gigantic flop in the Midwest. Ohio should be as solid as a state like Ohio possibly can be for Obama.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2012, 07:22:08 pm »
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I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.

There's nothing to suggest he's in DEEP trouble in any of these states.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2012, 07:25:35 pm »
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Ohio.
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Nagas
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2012, 07:30:13 pm »
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Ohio. The blue collar workers don't like robots taking away their jobs and they surely won't enjoy seeing one take the Presidency.
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TheGlobalizer
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« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2012, 07:31:23 pm »
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Ohio.  SB5 was a bad unforced error there.  Will carry to the presidential race.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2012, 07:43:55 pm »
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Ohio.
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2012, 09:13:33 pm »
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Ohio. I think Romney will win the other two easily.
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HST1948
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« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2012, 09:36:21 pm »
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Ohio. Florida had been a bad state for Obama ever since the 2008 Democratic Primary.  North Carolina is starting to look better for Democrats, but is still a conservative state that Obama would need a relatively large national margin to win.  In my opinion, North Carolina is a state that Obama can win, but it won't be a state that brings him to 270 on election day. 
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"I believe we can keep the promise of our founders, the idea that if you’re willing to work hard, it doesn’t matter who you are or where you come from or what you look like or where you love. It doesn’t matter whether you’re black or white or Hispanic or Asian or Native American or young or old or rich or poor, able, disabled, gay or straight, you can make it here in America if you’re willing to try.
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redcommander
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« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2012, 01:26:24 am »
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I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.

There's nothing to suggest he's in DEEP trouble in any of these states.

We haven't started the general election campaign yet. It's not going to be close once the conventions are done.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: January 12, 2012, 03:48:34 am »
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1. Ohio
2. North Carolina
3. Florida
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #13 on: January 12, 2012, 05:27:20 am »
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Leaning towards Ohio, but I think the numbers for Ohio and Florida are gonna be very close. Both look more likely than North Carolina to me.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2012, 06:42:05 am »
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I would say North Carolina because of heavy African American turnout, but he is in deep trouble in all three.

There's nothing to suggest he's in DEEP trouble in any of these states.

We haven't started the general election campaign yet. It's not going to be close once the conventions are done.

I think it's a bit early to make proclamations like that
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Marokai Besieged
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« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2012, 09:23:11 am »
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I get the feeling my state will hang in there with Obama. I hope, anyway.
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