The Southwest United States in November

[BushKenya]

We are a little over 3 weeks from the Nevada Caucuses on Saturday, February 4, 2012

The Caucuses will probably go for Romney considering the high Mormon influence in the state, and plus he should have plenty of momentum should he win South Carolina and Florida.

The question is how will Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico vote in November in a matchup of Romney vs. Obama?  Also, with the same matchup will Arizona be a safe Republican state, or will it be in play?  I believe, according to our friend jamespol who now lives in Utah most of the year and knows Arizona quite well, that Phoenix has a pretty high concentration of Mormons as well.

[TheGlobalizer]

As of today?

Probably:

NV = Romney
CO = tossup
NM = Obama
AZ = Romney

Most Mormons are already Republicans, so no significant swings.  The states will significant Mormon populations are just a touch less likely to have an issue with it; the Mormon thing is probably only relevant at all in non-Mormon religious swing states.

A Mormon Democrat would be a different discussion.

[ShadowOfTheWave]

NV is hard to understand, I would say Obama if forced though. NM is solid Obama, CO will probably go Obama unless he completely collapses. AZ is probably lean Romney, it depends on Obama's enthusiasm and turnout, he could pull out a NC style win there.

[anvi]

NV is hard to understand, I would say Obama if forced though. NM is solid Obama, CO will probably go Obama unless he completely collapses. AZ is probably lean Romney, it depends on Obama's enthusiasm and turnout, he could pull out a NC style win there.

^^^This, except that I don't think Obama has any chance at Arizona.

[ModerateCoward]

Obama's best chance to pick up a state is in AZ.

[Nagas]

New Mexico is a sure thing, with Colorado and Nevada right behind. The Democrats did well in the midterms in Colorado state-wide and we have a large voter registration advantage in Nevada.

Arizona is lean Romney, but it could be made competitive.

[Secretary Polnut]

NM: Obama
NV: toss-up, but organisation helps Obama
CO: toss-up, but increasingly Dem-friendly
AZ: lean Romney - if Mittens under-performs, it's certainly a plausible get. 

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The Democrats did well in the midterms in Colorado state-wide

In the two races the GOP fumbled the ball in candidate wise. The Republicans won the other three statewide races, two of which were pickups from Democrats. The Demographics are indeed a problem but at the same time, it will be interesting to see Mittens performance in the suburbs of Denver. He might just take Jefferson county back.

Nevada is a state where demographics are also squeezing the GOP out of existance. The GOP also performs worse then the polling tends to indicate with a few notable exceptions. One of them being Joe Heck who won by 1 point despite being down in the polls. Romney better be prepared to spend the green big time on organization and on not getting painted as another Angle.

Is not Arizona a most perfect state for Mittens, demographically speaking? Moderate Republicans in the Tucson area, Wealthy conservative pubbies in Maricopa, and a large number of mormons. All that really is of concern is turnout amongst those working class tea party types and how the conserva-dems vote in the few pockets where they exist. Also preserving the traditional comparative pubbieness of AZ Hispanics would be essential.

[TheGlobalizer]

FWIW, I'll say this - in Obama vs. Romney vs. Gary Johnson, Romney could easily end up 3rd in NM.

[pbrower2a]

NM: Strong Obama
CO: Solid Obama (probably as strong as states like MN, PA, and WI)
NV: Lean Obama (just see whether the Obama campaign floods the statewith campaign staff from California).
AZ: Toss-up
TX: Lean R
UT: Overwhelming R

[BushKenya]

So, pretty much it confirms the Southwestern United States are drifting more and more into the Democratic camp with New Mexico now a strong Democratic state, Colorado getting that way,  Arizona starting to move into toss up category, and Nevada in toss-up/lean D territory.  The only guaranteed Republican strongholds in the Southwest are Utah, Texas, and Oklahoma (if you consider the latter two in the Southwest).

[TheGlobalizer]

So, pretty much it confirms the Southwestern United States are drifting more and more into the Democratic camp with New Mexico now a strong Democratic state, Colorado getting that way,  Arizona starting to move into toss up category, and Nevada in toss-up/lean D territory.  The only guaranteed Republican strongholds in the Southwest are Utah, Texas, and Oklahoma (if you consider the latter two in the Southwest).

If Republicans keep attacking Hispanic immigrants, yes, they'll lose the entire effing southwest.  It is impossible to overstate the influence Hispanic culture and immigration have out here.  When you attack illegal immigrants out here, you're attacking your buddy's cousin - or his grandparents.

Longer term, I wouldn't even consider Texas to be a "guaranteed Republican stronghold".  The demographics are pointing in the opposite direction.

Republicans really need to get over the immigration thing and reach out to a rather natural conservative demographic.

[5280/East California]

I think the GOP will forget about the immigration issue for a while and focus on important stuff like the economy instead.