UK local elections, May 2012

[afleitch]

1. Conservative
2. SNP
3. SNP
4. Liberal Democrat

Not marked; 3 Labour candidates, 2 Independents and a Christian.

It's the first time I've ever voted for a Liberal Democrat.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Just voted (first time).

TUSC
Green
Labour (I put the cross next to the long-serving 'establishment' man, ftr)

Turnout seems to be (quite predictably) pathetic. No one else entered the polling station for the entire five minutes or so I was in and around it. When the workers saw that I was 18, they acted as if Her Majesty had visited - "You're 18?".

[afleitch]

If the Tory gets in in Hamilton North and East this year I may have to find a corner to cry in.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just got back from voting, my first time. One of the loudspeaker vans flew past me before for Labour, we haven't had them round here in literally years.

The polling station was dead, saw one other voter just leaving as I went in and the poll workers looked beyond miserable.

Quite a few people are going out to vote in my sixth form though - buzz of the 'first time' I suppose.

[You kip if you want to...]

What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

[afleitch]

What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

I can't predict anything at this stage. 2011 was a surprise because not only did Labour underperform, but the Tories ended up making gains. This time round I have a feeling that the Lib Dems will not fall as hard as people would think. I think the Tories will have a rough night but I can take comfort that this far into Blair's premiership Labour lost nearly 600 councillors and won the GE by a landslide a year later.

Scotland is even more difficult to predict.

[You kip if you want to...]

What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

I can't predict anything at this stage. 2011 was a surprise because not only did Labour underperform, but the Tories ended up making gains. This time round I have a feeling that the Lib Dems will not fall as hard as people would think. I think the Tories will have a rough night but I can take comfort that this far into Blair's premiership Labour lost nearly 600 councillors and won the GE by a landslide a year later.

Scotland is even more difficult to predict.

Conventional wisdom for Scotland tells me that Labour and the Tories will stay round and about the same level (a handful of loses) and most LibDem councillors will become SNP councillors. Not willing to give any figures, don't know Scottish politics well enough.

Wales, will of course, give Llafur an incredible night.

[Sibboleth]

No election in Felin and not much sign of one in Caernarfon. But more election activity in Bangor than I've ever seen before. There are some very interesting contests in that little city today, not that it makes any sense to make predictions because local politics in this little corner of the world is what it is.

Parochial folly aside, most local authorities in Wales could see a change in administration tonight/tomorrow, and that's including the two big cities.  Unless something very odd happens Labour will win a majority in Swansea and probably quite a large one. Cardiff is less predictable, but it might produce another of its trademark hilarious results (we shall see).

Elsewhere, the big prize up tonight is Brum.

[joevsimp]

Just voted (first time).

TUSC
Green
Labour (I put the cross next to the long-serving 'establishment' man, ftr)

Turnout seems to be (quite predictably) pathetic. No one else entered the polling station for the entire five minutes or so I was in and around it. When the workers saw that I was 18, they acted as if Her Majesty had visited - "You're 18?".

yeah, they do that, I didn't have the heart to tell them I was spoiling my paper when I voted the first time

[Sibboleth]

Rugby is an odd town. Any predictions for there?

[YL]

What are we predicting? I'm assuming Labour'll underperform, so i'm not willing to say any more than 400-500 gains. My gut tells me the Tories will lose more than the LibDems simply because they have further to fall on 2008, but the LibDems will have another dire night considering there's load've northern councils up again, so plenty of places they'll lose almost by default.

A hopeless cause, I know, but I do wish people used a better way of measuring the results than councillors gained/lost.  The variation in ward size in the UK is large enough that that can be misleading.  (The fact I live in one of the bigger ones might have something to do with my views on this...)

Also worth saying that Labour's performance in last year's English locals wasn't that bad, really.  (Scotland, of course, was a different matter and affected the perception of things a lot.)  They did well in some areas (most of the Mets, for example) and not so well in others; overall I think it was about in line with their poll rating at the time.

[Die-hard Clockworkfan]

Back from work and voting.  My long week in work is over, now time to relax.

Again, the polling station was pretty dead (only one other voter while I was there), and this is one of Bolton's biggest polling districts.

[Sibboleth]

One issue is that the media have a bit of a deluded idea as to what swing areas are actually like and which areas are actually swing areas...

[You kip if you want to...]

Polls have closed.


Just crushing some numbers for my own council (Wirral), it should be a Labour gain tonight.

[Leftbehind]

Crunching is the term, I believe.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

A report from Bradford by Al's favorite journalist:

Things are getting testy in Bradford, where George Galloway's Respect party is challenging the political establishment in 12 out of the 30 wards up for grabs. Salma Yaqoob, leader of Respect, has just tweeted that her brother's car was attacked by "Labour supporters" in the city this afternoon.

I have just spoken to her brother, Farrukh Haroon, who has been helping the Respect campaign. The 36-year-old says he was outside the Iqra school polling station in the Manningham area of the city – a ward Respect is confident of winning from Labour – when the alleged attack happened.

Haroon says he and his cousin had been driving up and down the Drummond Road with a megaphone, shouting Respect slogans "and saying stuff about Labour's support for the war" when they attracted the attention of some Labour supporters outside the primary school. He claims that they "attacked" the car, yanking off a wing mirror and pulling the keys from the ignition, snapping them into three pieces. Two children in the back of Haroon's car were "terrified", he says, and one was so frightened he jumped out of the car and tried to run away.

[You kip if you want to...]

Crunching is the term, I believe.

Typo.

[YL]

Early rumours suggest No to mayor in Birmingham; hopefully others will follow.

[London Man]

Voted in Havering today - not a huge amount of activity at my polling station at what should have been a busy time.

Poor weather today has probably hit turnout.

[You kip if you want to...]

Early rumours suggest No to mayor in Birmingham; hopefully others will follow.

The thought of Liam Byrne or Salma Yaqoob or whoever as my mayor would encourage me to vote no as well.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://news.sky.com/home/interactive-graphics/elections-2012
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/vote2012/council/gb.stm

All the usual stuff, we know the routine, i'm sure. Check council websites for wards, etc, etc.

BBC's programme starts at 23:35 after Question Time, I think Sky's already got their Decision 2012 programme on.

Do we get London Assembly results tonight by the way or is that tomorrow as well?

[You kip if you want to...]

Sunderland are declaring atm according to Twitter. Fast, even for them.

[YL]

This guy is tweeting from the Bradford count:
http://twitter.com/#!/UmarOnline

He seems to think Respect are doing well in Great Horton and Bradford Moor (both outside the West constituency).

[YL]

Sunderland are declaring atm according to Twitter. Fast, even for them.

Labour have apparently gained Barnes ward in Sunderland, which the Tories won narrowly last year.

Edit: and here are the figures: Barnes: Rebecca Atkinson (Lab) 2041; Gouilnara Dixon (Lib) 150; Tony Morrissey (Sitting Con councillor) 1486.  Not even close.

[You kip if you want to...]

Slightly OT: Discussing Francois Hollande on Question Time. All of them except the Welsh guy (assuming he's Plaid) and Harriet Harman seem to despise him. Idiots. Even Ming Campbell's slamming him. IDS and some guy from Dragon's Den calling him a big spending socialist.

Why not just call him a red under the bed and get it over with?