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| | |-+  UK local elections, May 2012
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Author Topic: UK local elections, May 2012  (Read 17066 times)
YL
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« on: January 12, 2012, 01:43:54 pm »
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I thought I'd start this now as a place to put the latest development in the Liverpool Lib Dems/Warren Bradley soap opera:
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/liverpool-news/local-news/2012/01/10/warren-bradley-to-stand-as-indepedent-candidate-in-liverpool-council-elections-100252-30090472/

Anyway, there are elections in all Scottish and Welsh unitaries, all English metropolitan councils, most English unitaries, and some English second tier districts.  (Full list here.)  There's also, of course, the London mayor and Assembly election, and certain cities are being forced to have referendums on introducing elected mayors of our own.
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« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2012, 03:46:16 pm »
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Just for interest's sake, if you apply a repeat of last year's seat gains/losses in the individual councils in England you get:

Labour gain;
Birmingham (from No Overall Control)
Bradford (from NOC)
Derby (from NOC)
North East Lincolnshire (from NOC)
Plymouth (from Conservatives)
Chorley (from NOC)
Rochdale (from NOC)
Sefton (from NOC)
Walsall (from NOC)
Wirral (from NOC)
Reading (from NOC)
Southampton (from Conservatives)
Thurrock (from NOC)
Exeter (from NOC)
Harlow (from Conservatives)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (from NOC)
Norwich (from NOC)
Rossendale (from NOC)

Conservative gain;
St Albans (from NOC)
« Last Edit: January 12, 2012, 04:03:39 pm by Leftbehind »Logged

afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2012, 04:37:48 pm »
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Up in Scotland the big question is whether the SNP can make further advances. The effects of a Lib Dem decline on an STV voting system is also intriguing. A stright Labour v SNP fight can squeeze out the smaller parties.

A dirty selection battle and threats of long standing Labour councillors running on an Independent Labour ticket coupled with the SNP's recent success means the key race will be the control for Glasgow. The SNP suffered from under nomination last time round, so the hope is that Glasgow will fall to NOC with the SNP hoping to equal or beat Labour this time round.
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« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2012, 04:44:13 pm »

Cardiff could well produce one of its trademark hilarious results.
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« Reply #4 on: January 12, 2012, 07:32:56 pm »
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I'm glad to see a reference to Wales as this year will see what the local electorate make of the 2010 General Election and the 2011 Assembly Elections. I, myself, am hoping to be able to stand for Ceredigion again (this time in a different ward).

And in case, people are wondering about Cardiff, here is the result in 2008 (with the change on 2004)
Conservatives 70,238 votes (28% +7%) winning 17 seats (+5 seats)
Labour 68,024 votes (27% -3%) winning 13 seats (-14 seats)
Liberal Democrats 66,940 votes (26% -7%) winning 35 seats (+2 seats)
Plaid Cymru 32,120 votes (13% +3%) winning 7 seats (+4 seats)
Independents 11,685 votes (5% +3%) winning 3 seats (+3 seats)
Others 5,215 votes (2% -1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Conservative lead of 2,214 (1%) on a swing of 5% from Lab to Con
No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 3
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« Reply #5 on: January 12, 2012, 07:47:00 pm »
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And in case, people are wondering about Cardiff, here is the result in 2008 (with the change on 2004)
Conservatives 70,238 votes (28% +7%) winning 17 seats (+5 seats)
Labour 68,024 votes (27% -3%) winning 13 seats (-14 seats)
Liberal Democrats 66,940 votes (26% -7%) winning 35 seats (+2 seats)
Plaid Cymru 32,120 votes (13% +3%) winning 7 seats (+4 seats)
Independents 11,685 votes (5% +3%) winning 3 seats (+3 seats)
Others 5,215 votes (2% -1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Conservative lead of 2,214 (1%) on a swing of 5% from Lab to Con
No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 3

Bizarre numbers. Their fall in May will be steep there, in terms of seats, with majorities like what they must have in Cardiff wards...
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2012, 07:51:30 pm »

Results from 2008 are on the site of Our Man in Bolton. As you can see, the exact method of calculating results in multi-member wards makes quite a difference in Cardiff.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2012, 05:57:27 am »
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And in case, people are wondering about Cardiff, here is the result in 2008 (with the change on 2004)
Conservatives 70,238 votes (28% +7%) winning 17 seats (+5 seats)
Labour 68,024 votes (27% -3%) winning 13 seats (-14 seats)
Liberal Democrats 66,940 votes (26% -7%) winning 35 seats (+2 seats)
Plaid Cymru 32,120 votes (13% +3%) winning 7 seats (+4 seats)
Independents 11,685 votes (5% +3%) winning 3 seats (+3 seats)
Others 5,215 votes (2% -1%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Conservative lead of 2,214 (1%) on a swing of 5% from Lab to Con
No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 3

Bizarre numbers. Their fall in May will be steep there, in terms of seats, with majorities like what they must have in Cardiff wards...

The weird thing is that there are a quite a lot of safe Lib Dem seats in Cardiff (at least in the 2004/2008 context).  If the Lib Dems were to lose every seat they held with a majority of less than 10% in 2008 they would still be left with 20 seats (a loss of 15).  (Incidentally, one of the councillors who would lose out in that scenario is a very good friend of mine.)
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2012, 06:25:48 am »
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Full list of what's up?
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2012, 06:39:32 am »
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http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/uklocalgov/elec2012.htm
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #10 on: January 19, 2012, 11:28:15 am »
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Do we have a London mayor thread? Because, erm... Cheesy.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2012, 11:56:13 am »
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Do we have a London mayor thread? Because, erm... Cheesy.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=117807.60

needs bumping definitely

fingers crossed for Ken (and Jenny Jones of course) but I can't vote in that since I've moved out to the sticks,
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YL
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« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2012, 01:43:15 pm »
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There will be a referendum on whether Doncaster should abandon the elected mayor system.
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2012, 06:29:56 pm »
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Smiley Two pieces of good news in a particularly awful month.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2012, 05:05:54 am »
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I would prefer a referendum on Donny independence. Cheesy
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« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2012, 01:54:04 pm »
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Just to let everyone know that my book and spreadsheet of the 2008 UK local election results are now finished.
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #16 on: January 25, 2012, 03:53:58 pm »
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F'ing fantastic. Smiley
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YL
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« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2012, 12:32:21 pm »
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The Liverpool Post says that Liverpool is going to bypass the Government's referendum and go straight to having an elected mayor.

I don't like the sound of this:
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The Liverpool Post can exclusively reveal the move is linked to a deal to get 130m of extra cash for schools, housing, regeneration and job creation.

Council leader Joe Anderson said the money is only available if the city chooses to have a mayor.

I presume that Liverpool can be trusted not to elect another Peter Davies, but he isn't exactly the only walking argument against elected mayors in the UK.
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« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2012, 12:48:22 pm »
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The Liverpool Post says that Liverpool is going to bypass the Government's referendum and go straight to having an elected mayor.

I don't like the sound of this:
Quote
The Liverpool Post can exclusively reveal the move is linked to a deal to get 130m of extra cash for schools, housing, regeneration and job creation.

Council leader Joe Anderson said the money is only available if the city chooses to have a mayor.

I presume that Liverpool can be trusted not to elect another Peter Davies, but he isn't exactly the only walking argument against elected mayors in the UK.


The whole elected mayors thing, across the country, has just turned out to be populism at the expense of anything solid. Typical Liverpool.
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2012, 07:04:33 pm »
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Map of Welsh 2008 local election results:
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.



There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #20 on: January 31, 2012, 07:38:21 pm »
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Map of Welsh 2008 local election results:



Lovely. Am I correct in assuming that white is Ind, pink are local Independents (Llais, Swansea Ind, Merthyr Ind) and that grey is Independent Independent?
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« Reply #21 on: January 31, 2012, 08:01:06 pm »
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From researches on the wonderful website of the poster, pink is Llais Gwynedd, Independants @ Swansea, Merthyr Independants, People's Voice and Llantwit First Independants.

Gray is a postponed election (a candidate died, I suppose.).

Again, I wish to state than all that precious information was found on the marvelous website of Andrew Teale.
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Comrade Sibboleth
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« Reply #22 on: January 31, 2012, 08:05:46 pm »

I'm so stealing that outline for when I do the 2012 version of my all Wales 2008 map.

Gray is a postponed election (a candidate died, I suppose.).

Yeah, that's the rule.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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« Reply #23 on: January 31, 2012, 08:59:50 pm »
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I think British people call them countermandered by-elections, no?

And, yes, I know the rule is that. We have the same here, in Canada.

It was applied in Quebec general elections of 1998 (a PQ incumbent running for reelection died. In 1998, eight days before the election in Masson).

We also had a postponed election in Quebec general elections of 1994 and 2003, due to a tie (in St. Jean in 1994 and in Champlain in 2003), which isn't the rule in UK and in most canadian provinces. It is a "drawing of lots" in UK, no?
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« Reply #24 on: January 31, 2012, 09:03:38 pm »

Officially, yeah. There have been two recent parliamentary ones; the first for decades. South Staffs and Thirsk & Malton, but you know that.

Yeah, that's right as well. Not something that happens in parliamentary elections, but there's usually a case or two every year at local government level.
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Richard Hoggart 1918-2014
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