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Author Topic: UK local elections, May 2012  (Read 22272 times)
joevsimp
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« Reply #100 on: April 19, 2012, 02:39:00 pm »
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todays libdem ppb was fairly dire, tax cuts, is that the best you can manage?
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« Reply #101 on: April 20, 2012, 07:51:26 am »
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County Councils for us next year. Always fun.

Police and Crime what now?
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« Reply #102 on: April 20, 2012, 08:28:29 am »
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County Councils for us next year. Always fun. 

Those county councils up for election next year in full:

BuckinghamshireConservative
CambridgeshireConservative
CumbriaNo overall control 
DerbyshireConservative
DevonConservative
Dorset  Conservative
East Sussex  Conservative
Essex Conservative
Gloucestershire  Conservative 
Hampshire Conservative 
Hertfordshire  Conservative 
Kent  Conservative
Lancashire  Conservative
Leicestershire Conservative 
Lincolnshire Conservative 
NorfolkConservative 
North Yorkshire Conservative 
Northamptonshire  Conservative 
Nottinghamshire  Conservative
Oxfordshire  Conservative
Somerset  Conservative
Staffordshire  Conservative
Suffolk  Conservative 
SurreyConservative 
Warwickshire Conservative
West Sussex Conservative 
Worcestershire Conservative 

Guess it'll be a good night for Labour and Lib Dems; it can't be a bad night, really. The reverse for us - unless something bizarre happens and we pick up Cumbria. Smiley
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« Reply #103 on: April 26, 2012, 04:20:13 pm »
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Preview of the elections in the People's Republic of South Yorkshire.  To a large extent I've already posted this elsewhere, but it's updated a bit.

NB to anyone who isn't familiar with our local elections: all these councils elect by thirds, so these seats were last contested in 2008, and each ward has two councillors who aren't up this year.

Barnsley

Currently Lab 42, Barnsley Independent Group (hereafter BIG) 12, Con 6, no party 2.

(Of the two "no party" councillors, one is in Monk Bretton and was elected as a non-BIG independent, and the other is in Darton East and was originally elected as BIG in 2010.)

2008 was BIG 9 (plus an extra one in a double vacancy election in Old Town), Lab 8, Con 2, LD 1, Ind 1.  The LD was in Dearne South and has defected to Labour, so BIG and Labour are each defending 9 seats,  the Tories are defending the two Penistone wards, and there's the aforementioned independent in Monk Bretton (but he is not defending his seat).

As the numbers above show, BIG have struggled since 2008, with only three of their councillors elected since then.  Dodworth is their stronghold, which they won in both 2010 and 2011 and so they have all three councillors there, and they also won North East (home of Grimethorpe Colliery Band) in 2011.  So in 2012 they're defending in seven wards where they don't have any other councillors: Darfield, Hoyland Milton, Kingstone, Old Town, Rockingham, Stairfoot, Worsbrough.

The Boundary Commission's initial proposals move Penistone West ward into Nick Clegg's constituency, and presumably because of that the Lib Dems do have a candidate there for once; it might be interesting to see how they do.  It was held fairly comfortably by the Tories in 2011, though, as was neighbouring Penistone East.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, BIG 13, English Democrats 12, BNP 4, UKIP 3, Lib Dem 2, Socialist Labour 2, TUSC 1, Independent (non-BIG) 4.

Doncaster

Currently Lab 44, Con 9, LD 6, Ind 4.  Three of the Independents were elected as such and are listed on the Council website as "Alliance of Independent Members" the fourth was elected for the Community Group, who used to have several members on the Council; he is defending his seat under that label again, so I don't know why he's Independent on the website.  The Council of course also has an English Democrat Mayor (ugh); there will also be a referendum on abolishing the mayoral system.

2008 was Lab 8, Ind 5, LD 4, Con 3, Community Group 1.  The Independent in Great North Road has defected to Labour, and the Independent seat in Rossington went Labour in a by-election.  So Labour are defending 10 seats, the Lib Dems 4 and the Tories 3, and all four independent seats are up.

The Tories have all three seats in their three wards: Sprotborough, Finningley and Torne Valley.  Of these only Sprotborough looks at all marginal.

The Lib Dems are defending all their seats outside Bessacarr & Cantley this year (and even that ward was quite close last year).  The other wards they're defending are Mexborough, Town Moor and Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandal & Barnby Dun.  The results from last year are not promising for them: they came last in both EKSBD and Town Moor with embarrassing vote shares, and while they did come second in Mexborough it was a pretty distant second.

The Independents in Balby and Edlington & Warmsworth are defending their seats.  All three seats held by Independents (those two and Armthorpe) and also Thorne (Community Group) are in wards won reasonably comfortably by Labour last year.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, Lib Dem 12, English Democrats 7, Community Group 2, Democratic Nationalists 1, UKIP 1, Green 1, Independent 8.

Rotherham

Currently Lab 54, Con 7, BNP 1, Vacant 1.

2008 was a bad year for Labour in Rotherham as many places were, but in Rotherham that means they still won two thirds of the seats: Lab 14, Con 5, BNP 2.  The Tory elected in Anston & Woodsetts defected to Labour, and the BNP councillor elected in Brinsworth & Catcliffe had a somewhat bizarre career (he's the one who supposely joined the National Front without realising that they were a bunch of racists) which ended with him being kicked off the council for non-attendance.

So the Tories are defending four seats: Sitwell, which they held last year, and Hellaby, Wales and Wickersley which were won by Labour.  The BNP are defending Maltby, and Brinsworth & Catcliffe is vacant; both of those were won comfortably by Labour last year.  Everything else is Labour, Labour, Labour.

Is a redwash possible?  Last year Sitwell was Tory by 8%, so it doesn't seem implausible.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, UKIP 12, BNP 5, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, TUSC 1, Raving Loony 1, Independent 5.

Sheffield

Currently Lab 50, LD 32, Green 2.

2008 was LD 16, Lab 11, Green 1.  The LD elected in Gleadless Valley went Independent in 2009 and then Labour in 2011.

The Lib Dems are defending the following wards which Labour won in 2011: East Ecclesfield, West Ecclesfield, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, Hillsborough, Walkley, Broomhill, Crookes, Nether Edge, Mosborough.  Many of these were won by quite big margins last year; Hillsborough and Mosborough had margins over 20%.  West Ecclesfield was the narrowest Labour gain, the margin there being just over 3%.

Then the Lib Dems are defending six wards they did win last year.  Three of these, Stannington (won by just 5 votes), Graves Park and Beauchief & Greenhill, were fairly narrow holds (margins under 7% over Labour).  Ecclesall and Fulwood should be safe for them, while if Dore & Totley is vulnerable to anyone it'll be to the Tories.

The 12 wards Labour are defending all look pretty safe in the current climate.  The remaining ward is Central, which the Greens held narrowly (again over Labour) last year.

Candidates: Lab 28, Lib Dem 28, Con 28, Green 28, UKIP 28, TUSC 5, Eng Dem 1, Independent 3.


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« Reply #104 on: April 27, 2012, 01:49:21 pm »
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Now for West Yorkshire, which is perhaps a bit more interesting, with three hung councils, one of which is Bradford.  The system of elections by thirds is the same as in South Yorkshire.

Bradford

Currently Lab 43, Con 27, Lib Dem 11, Green 3, Ind 5 (2 ex-Tory, 2 ex-BNP, 1 ex-Labour), Vacant 1.  The Council is run by a minority Labour administration.  It's worth remembering that this district contains a lot of areas which aren't part of Bradford as most people understand it.

2008 was Con 14, Lab 9, LD 6, Green 1.  The Tory elected in Craven is now Independent and is defending his seat, the Tory elected in Keighley West has resigned from the Council, and the Tory elected in Toller defected to Labour.  So, including the vacancy, the Tories are defending 12 seats, Labour 10, the Lib Dems 6, the Greens 1, and an Independent is defending Craven.

Of the Tory defences, Bowling & Barkerend, Clayton & Fairweather Green, Heaton, Keighley East and Keighley West were won by Labour last year, only Keighley West having a margin under 10%.  (How the Tories ever managed to win some of these places may seem a bit of a mystery, but as we know Bradford politics can be seriously weird.)  Queensbury was won by the BNP (now Independent).  The other six were Tory holds, Thornton & Allerton having the closest margin at just under 10% over Labour.

Of the Lib Dem defences, Baildon was won by the Tories last year with the Lib Dems in a poor third, and Bradford Moor, Eccleshill and Windhill & Wrose were won by Labour, Bradford Moor by an huge margin.  Idle & Thackley looks fairly safe for the Lib Dems (whose candidate posts on Vote UK), Bolton & Undercliffe a bit less so.

Craven, being defended by an ex-Tory Independent, is generally a safe Tory ward, and Shipley looks fairly safe for the Greens.

All the wards Labour are defending this year, including Toller where the councillor was elected as a Tory, were won by them last year, some with huge majorites.  The wards with huge majorities, of course, include Toller.  However, Keighley Central was only narrowly gained from a defending Tory.

Of course, a certain recent byelection result may have an impact here.  Respect seem a bit disorganised, and although they had at least 15 candidates only 12 of them actually got their papers in on time.  One of the wards they missed was Toller, which otherwise would have been a likely gain for them.  They're likely to threaten what would otherwise have been easy Labour holds in wards like City, Manningham and Little Horton, and similarly what looked like a nailed on Labour gain in Heaton could well go to Respect instead.  Other wards with added uncertainty would include Clayton & Fairweather Green (where the Green candidate from the byelection is standing for Respect - isn't Bradford politics fun?) and maybe Bradford Moor.

Candidates: Lab 30, Lib Dem 30, Con 28, Green 13, Respect 12, UKIP 8, Democratic Nationalists 3, Socialist Labour 1, BNP 1, Independent 1.

Calderdale

Currently Con 21, Lab 13, LD 13, Ind 4. The council is run by a Lib Dem/Labour coalition.

2008 was Con 8, LD 6, Lab 2, BNP 1. The BNP candidate elected in Illingworth & Mixenden is now an Independent, as is the Lib Dem in Warley (Independent Lib Dem on the Council website). Also, the Lib Dem elected in Greetland & Stainland defected to the Tories, so the Tories are defending nine wards, the Lib Dems four and Labour two, with the remaining two now independent.

Of the nine wards they're defending, the Tories won six last year. Labour won Todmorden and Sowerby Bridge, and the Lib Dems won Greetland & Stainland (as mentioned above, this seat is only Tory by defection).  Of the six wards Tory in both 2008 and 2011, Brighouse and Rastrick were close enough that they look plausible Labour targets, while Skircoat is perhaps a rare example of a potential Lib Dem gain.

The Lib Dems had a bad year here too in 2011, only winning Greetland & Stainland and Warley. Of the wards they're defending, Labour won Calder (the ward which includes Hebden Bridge) and Park (in Halifax), both comfortably, while the Tories won Luddendenfoot (Labour close behind with the LDs well back in third) and Elland (close three way).

Illingworth & Mixenden, BNP in 2008, was Labour last year with the Tories second.  The councillor elected in 2008 is defending his seat as an Independent.

Candidates: Lab 17, Con 17, Lib Dem 16, Green 6, TUSC 1, British People's Party 1 (though the candidate has apparently been expelled from the party since the nominations were handed in), Independent 3.


Kirklees

Currently Lab 27, Con 21, LD 14, Green 4, Ind 3, with a Labour minority administration.

2008 was Con 8, Lab 7, LD 7, Green 1, with no changes since.

Of the wards the Tories are defending, they won six in 2011, while Holme Valley North was won by an Independent and Kirkburton by a Green.  (Kirkburton is interesting as a Green/Tory marginal.)  Denby Dale and Liversedge & Gomersal were close enough that they look plausible Labour targets.

The Lib Dems had a bad night in 2011 as in many Mets, only winning two wards.  Of the other five they're defending this year, Dewsbury West, Dalton and Golcar were won by Labour, while Colne Valley and Lindley were won by the Tories.  Colne Valley was a three-way marginal last year (Con 1656, Lab 1554, LD 1425).

All seven of the wards Labour are defending this year went for them last year, and none look close.

Newsome has three Green councillors and they won it comfortably last year.

Candidates: Lab 23, Con 23, Lib Dem 23, Green 19, TUSC 3, UKIP 3, English Democrat 1, Independent 5.

Leeds

Currently Lab 55, Con 21, Lib Dem 16, Morley Borough Independents (MBI) 5, Green 2.

2008 was Lab 13, Lib Dem 9, Con 8 (plus one in a double vacancy), MBI 2, Green 1, and there have been no changes.

Of the eight wards the Tories are defending, Roundhay and Temple Newsam were won fairly comfortably by Labour last year, and the Tories held the other six.  Four of them look safe, while in Guiseley & Rawdon and Calverley & Farsley Labour weren't that far behind.

Of the nine wards the Lib Dems are defending, they only won two last year (Weetwood and Otley & Yeadon); Labour won six, a couple by huge margins (you'd never believe that Gipton & Harehills had recently voted Lib Dem from the 2011 result), and Horsforth turned into a three-way marginal which the Tories won.

All the wards Labour are defending look pretty safe.  Then the two Morley wards are being defended by the MBIs, who last year held North easily but lost South narrowly to Labour -- and Farnley & Wortley by the Greens, who held it by a few hundred votes last year (but didn't win it in 2010).

Candidates: Lab 33, Con 33, Lib Dem 30, Green 19, UKIP 14, English Democrats 11, Alliance for Green Socialism 9, TUSC 4, BNP 1, Independent 4.


Wakefield

Currently Lab 40, Con 19, Ind 2, vacant 2.  One Independent was elected as such; the other one was elected as a Tory.

2008 was Con 11, Lab 8, Ind 3, with a double vacancy in Hemsworth, the runner-up there being Labour.  The Independent elected in Featherstone has joined Labour, and the Tory elected in Horbury & South Ossett is now an Independent.  There are vacancies in two wards, Hemsworth (Ind) and Pontefract North (Con).  So, including the two vacancies, the Tories are defending 10 seats, Labour 8 and independents 3.

The two Independents, Graham Jesty (Horbury & South Ossett; elected as Con) and Wilf Benson (South Elmsall & South Kirkby), are both defending their seats.  Both wards were won by Labour last year, the former rather narrowly (over Con) and the latter by a landslide.  Hemsworth was also comfortably Labour last year.

Last year the Tories only won four wards: Ossett, Wakefield Rural, Wakefield South and Wakefield West.  All of these were marginal over Labour (within 5%) except Wakefield South, which looks safe.  The other six wards the Tories are defending (Ackworth et al, Crofton et al, Pontefract N, Pontefract S, Stanley & Outwood E, Wrenthorpe & Outwood W) were won by Labour; only Pontefract S and Wrenthorpe & Outwood W were within 10%, and those not by much.

Everywhere Labour are defending was won comfortably by them last year.  Their best performance was 80% in Airedale & Ferry Fryston.

Candidates: Lab 21, Con 21, UKIP 10, Lib Dem 7, TUSC 2, Green 2, English Democrats 1, Independent 2, no description 4.
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Peter
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« Reply #105 on: April 29, 2012, 07:44:47 am »
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Oxford 2012 (half council up)

Incumbent map below.

Present seats (seats up)

Labour 26 (13)
Lib Dem 16 (7)
Green 5 (3)
IWCA 1 (1)



This is the first election in Oxford since the coalition government came into being. The IWCA seems to have disbanded and are not contesting their seat - expect a Labour gain there.

The Lib Dem student wards are potentially quite vulnerable: The Headington ward (the LD ward on its own) is the Oxford Brookes ward - its probably most vulnerable to Labour.

The two most southerly wards in the centre, Carfax & Holywell, will be vulnerable to the Greens.

Most of the Labour wards should be safe, though I haven't been following the fickle Cowley road politics which historically have involved key groups swinging basically wholesale between the LDs and Labour.
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« Reply #106 on: April 29, 2012, 11:37:23 am »
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Is a total yellow meltdown possible, or are some wards just too safe for even an outside chance of that?
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« Reply #107 on: April 29, 2012, 12:29:00 pm »
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Ward name map

Of the four remaining wards to the NW, Wolvercote (the most northerly) is the most vulnerable on paper. To the Tories. Which could actually happen if there is a mini-collapse in the LD vote and the Tory vote holds.

The two directly below that, Summertown and St Margarets, will never fall. If anything, the LD voters of those wards are the most likely in Oxford to support coalition policies.

The final ward, North, just above the Carfax-Holywell pairing, looks quite safe on paper, however, Sushilla Dhall is contesting it for the Greens. She's a pretty big hitter for the LDs locally: she was Councillor for Carfax ward; she polled very well in this ward back in 2004; and contested a general election in Oxford in 2010. She'll be coming from a low base of 14%, but there's a good number of students in that ward, so its possible.
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« Reply #108 on: April 29, 2012, 06:35:26 pm »
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I can give some details for the election of a third of Slough Borough Council (Slough is the area to the west of London Heathrow Airport to those unfamiliar with it).

There is one vacancy in each of the 14 wards. The Council has a total of 41 members (as one ward has 2 councillors). The current membership of the Council is Labour 27, Conservative 8 and Britwellian, Independent, Liberal and Liberal Democrat Group (BILLD) 5.

The 41st Councillor, not in any group, is the remarkable Councillor Pervez Choudhry. He was elected as a Labour Councillor from Central Ward in 2008. He was then blocked from becoming Labour group leader in 2008, as his factional opponents had better ties with the national party. Choudhry responded by defecting to the Conservatives and by 2010 had become their group leader. He was then charged with bigamy. As a result he was suspended from the Council group and resigned from the Conservative Party. Since then he has been sitting as an Independent. Recently Choudhry took the very unusual step, for a sitting Councillor for one ward, of contesting Baylis and Stoke ward as an Independent in a by-election. He polled quite well but was not close to winning the by-election. He is a candidate in the same ward in this year's ordinary election. After nominations closed, Choudhry's bigamy trial was heard at Reading Crown Court. At the last moment Chaudhry changed his plea to guilty. He will be sentenced next month, after the election. Surely he will not be re-elected, even though he does not have a Conservative opponent in the May election.

The seats up for election this year are held by 8 Labour, 3 Conservative, 4 BILLD (1 Lib Dem, 1 Independent Britwellian Residents, 1 Liberal and 1 Independent) and 1 Independent councillors.

The Labour Party should do well on national trends, but may be affected by some little, local difficulties. Another round of factional infighting saw the Labour leader of the Council and a cabinet commissioner (who is reputedly a very, very close friend of Fiona MacTaggart MP) de-selected in the wards they represented. They are now contesting opposition held seats. The local Labour Party itself is being investigated by the Labour Party nationally over what happened in candidate selection. Perhaps someone with influence on the national party was not amused by what happened. In any event the report on the investigation is being delayed until after the local election. Perhaps more seriously, the Heart of Slough project is over budget, over time and has caused traffic chaos. The new bus station is drafty and wet in bad weather and is not considered by bus users to be an improvement on the old bus station. The council seems to have a fixation on building prestige projects in the town centre and neglecting outlying areas. Some of these problems may enable some opposition candidates to survive.

The Conservative Party is weak in the town, but has gained ground as against the BILLD Group. In the 2004-2008 joint administration, the Conservatives were the smaller group but since then they have lost less than the other opposition group. The Tories seem reasonably safe in Langley St Mary's ward (where they hold all three seats) and Haymill ward (where they won from the Liberals in the last two cycles and the octogenarian Liberal incumbent is retiring this year). They may hold on to the one seat they have in Upton (Lab/Con marginal, where a well respected veteran Conservative veteran may hold on to the last Tory seat in the ward) and in Chalvey (energetic young Asian incumbent, whose election in 2008 was a surprise when he defeated a white Muslim in a hitherto Labour ward, facing the aforementioned friend of the MP who is of eastern European origin). The Tories surely have no hope of winning Central ward (where a former Conservative councillor and some of his associates went to jail for election fraud a few years ago) or any of the other seats in Slough.

Of the components of the BILLD group, the Liberals and Wexham Lea Independents are not contesting their seats. Labour had a large majority in Wexham Lea last year and the Conservatives have been winning Haymill from the Liberals in the last two cycles. The IBR incumbent in Britwell, facing the Labour Council leader in a ward which Labour has won in 2010 and 2011, may have an outside chance of retaining his seat and if he does it will cause an earthquake in Slough politics. The Lib Dem incumbent in Foxborough ward is seeking to retain his seat. Labour won the ward last year, but the Lib Dems retained the seat in 2010 (the only BILLD seat retained in that cycle) and the 2011 campaign was disrupted by the death of the then incumbent Councillor whose seat was up that year, so the contest may be close.

Labour and UKIP (re-launched in Slough this year) are contesting all 14 seats. The Conservatives have 11 candidates, as they are not splitting the anti-Labour vote for the three non Tory opposition councillors seeking re-election. There are four LibDem candidates as well as their BILLD ally in Britwell. There are three Independent nominees (including Pervez Choudhry). There are a total of 47 candidates for the 14 seats (an average of 3.36 candidates per seat).

The never dull caravan of Slough local politics rolls on.
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« Reply #109 on: April 29, 2012, 06:42:25 pm »
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Slight correction on the seats up this year. I totalled 15 in the long post because one of the Labour Councillors elected in 2008 was returned in a two seat election, in Central ward, with the extra seat being to fill the vacancy caused by a Conservative councillor disqualified for electoral corruption. The four year term, up this year, was won by Pervez Choudhry.
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« Reply #110 on: May 01, 2012, 02:11:16 am »
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Ward name map

Of the four remaining wards to the NW, Wolvercote (the most northerly) is the most vulnerable on paper. To the Tories. Which could actually happen if there is a mini-collapse in the LD vote and the Tory vote holds.

The two directly below that, Summertown and St Margarets, will never fall. If anything, the LD voters of those wards are the most likely in Oxford to support coalition policies.

The final ward, North, just above the Carfax-Holywell pairing, looks quite safe on paper, however, Sushilla Dhall is contesting it for the Greens. She's a pretty big hitter for the LDs locally: she was Councillor for Carfax ward; she polled very well in this ward back in 2004; and contested a general election in Oxford in 2010. She'll be coming from a low base of 14%, but there's a good number of students in that ward, so its possible.

you can spend 5 minutes in Summertown (on a bicycle of course) and know that its a Lib Dem area, but as you say, the kind of more centrist liberal lib dems

any chance of carfax and Holywell being regained by the Greens?
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« Reply #111 on: May 01, 2012, 06:20:56 am »
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Quick update on Glasgow

Glasgow First do not appear to be making much of an impact. Their sitting councillors are however hoping that their incumbency will help them over the line. David Meickle, the lone Tory (who should be re-elected) has pretty much confirmed that he will be looking at an alliance with the SNP. The Greens have indicated the same thing. The Tories are concentrating on trying to get Meickle and two others over the line. The Greens are confident that they will hold on to most of the seats they are defending.

The big battle is between Labour and the SNP with Salmond visiting the city at the weekend (and shaking hands with a certain bemused forum Tory) While Labour seem dejected as if in the last days of Rome, the SNP are suprisingly cautious. There is still talk of them forming a majority administration which I would like to dismiss, but it comes from the same sources that whispered 'landslide' last year.

It should be assumed though, that as long as Labour don't hold a majority of seats then they are out of office for the first time since 1980. The smaller parties seem set on forming a coalition to keep Labour out which given the shenanigans of the last council and the threats made within, makes sense. The same is true of Glasgow First, should they return any councillors.
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« Reply #112 on: May 01, 2012, 06:34:07 am »
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Thanks for the detailed report on various authorities.


The interesting thing if SNP win Glasgow is who will be the council leader. The current group leader is the weakest point of their campaign. She already mentioned that she may not even run when SNP will elect their new group leader after the election.
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« Reply #113 on: May 01, 2012, 07:48:22 am »
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For some reason YouGov have done a local elections poll of Wales:

Labour 48%, Tories 17%, Independents 15%, Plaid 14%, LibDems 17%
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« Reply #114 on: May 01, 2012, 12:20:49 pm »
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A UKIP candidate in Sheffield has been suspended by the party over a blog post he made about Norwegian mass murderer Anders Breivik's "manifesto".

The UKIP statement is at http://www.ukipsheffield.co.uk/2012/05/suspension-of-candidate/
and for more on the case and the candidate in question (who, shall we say, has a bit of form) including the text of the post in question, there's a thread on the Sheffield Forum:
http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?t=981944
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« Reply #115 on: May 01, 2012, 12:25:55 pm »
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There are a couple of posts about the local elections in Bradford on the Guardian's Northerner.  I'm not expecting a particularly positive reaction to them.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/may/01/respect-george-galloway-bradford-labour-local-elections
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http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/may/01/bradford-elections-george-galloway-respect-labour
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« Reply #116 on: May 01, 2012, 04:15:06 pm »
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What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 
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« Reply #117 on: May 01, 2012, 04:39:22 pm »
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What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 

They're down, yeah. They've been plagued by infighting since 2010 when Nick Griffin failed to get elected and they lost every council seat in Barking, their strongest council, and then they were trashed, across the country, last year as well. They lost their one London Assembly Member (he became an independent) after a pretty slimy leadership election and Griffin announced he's going in 2013. They're apparently drowning in debt as well.

Catalyse that with a lot of their working class voters going back to Labour as they realise that the Tories were everything everyone thought they'd be. The far-right never really has much success when the Tories are in government, look at the NF in the 80s.

The far-right's gone back into its box, for now, their councillor base is getting slaughtered and it's doubtful they'll even win their EU seats again in 2014.
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« Reply #118 on: May 01, 2012, 04:48:30 pm »
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What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 

They're down, yeah. They've been plagued by infighting since 2010 when Nick Griffin failed to get elected and they lost every council seat in Barking, their strongest council, and then they were trashed, across the country, last year as well. They lost their one London Assembly Member (he became an independent) after a pretty slimy leadership election and Griffin announced he's going in 2013. They're apparently drowning in debt as well.

Catalyse that with a lot of their working class voters going back to Labour as they realise that the Tories were everything everyone thought they'd be. The far-right never really has much success when the Tories are in government, look at the NF in the 80s.

The far-right's gone back into its box, for now, their councillor base is getting slaughtered and it's doubtful they'll even win their EU seats again in 2014.

Good to see.  It seems though throughout much of continental Europe the far right is on the rise, although true they often go in cycles.  Unfortunately, I think it only a matter of time before the BNP makes a comeback.  In every European country there is at least 10% who are outright racist and another 30-50% who are somewhat prejudiced towards people different than them so it is not as though they don't have a large pool of potential voters.  Off course immigration is not the only issue people care about and they also want competent leaders too.
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« Reply #119 on: May 01, 2012, 05:05:45 pm »
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What are the BNP polling numbers looking like?  I heard they are down which is surprising as usually extremist parties tend to do best during bad economic times rather than good ones.  Is this true?  And did they have any bad publicity to cause it as certainly every time they are in the news they look bad and may make some think twice about going for them. 

They're down, yeah. They've been plagued by infighting since 2010 when Nick Griffin failed to get elected and they lost every council seat in Barking, their strongest council, and then they were trashed, across the country, last year as well. They lost their one London Assembly Member (he became an independent) after a pretty slimy leadership election and Griffin announced he's going in 2013. They're apparently drowning in debt as well.

Catalyse that with a lot of their working class voters going back to Labour as they realise that the Tories were everything everyone thought they'd be. The far-right never really has much success when the Tories are in government, look at the NF in the 80s.

The far-right's gone back into its box, for now, their councillor base is getting slaughtered and it's doubtful they'll even win their EU seats again in 2014.

Good to see.  It seems though throughout much of continental Europe the far right is on the rise, although true they often go in cycles.  Unfortunately, I think it only a matter of time before the BNP makes a comeback.  In every European country there is at least 10% who are outright racist and another 30-50% who are somewhat prejudiced towards people different than them so it is not as though they don't have a large pool of potential voters.  Off course immigration is not the only issue people care about and they also want competent leaders too.

We have, of course, had some good polling for UKIP if you want to count them as far-right (which is extremely tenuous, of course).
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« Reply #120 on: May 01, 2012, 06:08:00 pm »
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They're not far-right, but they're right-wing populists/an anti-immigration vote similar to many - not all, mind - of what are being voted in across Europe at the moment.
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« Reply #121 on: May 02, 2012, 07:13:48 am »
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A suprisingly bold statement from Labour's leader in Glasgow, Gordon Matheson who has publically annouced that he expects Labour to retain outright control.
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« Reply #122 on: May 02, 2012, 07:44:10 am »
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YouGov Welsh poll:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-17906118

Topline voting intention figures are as follows:

Westminster (change since 2010 GE): CON 23% (-3), LAB 50% (+14), LD 7% (-13), PC 12%(+1)
Welsh Assembly constituency (change since 2011): CON 19% (-6), LAB 48% (+6), LD 7% (-4), PC 18% (-1)
Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13% (-10), LAB 33% (-4), LD 9% (+1), PC 22% (+4)
Local elections (change since 2008): CON 17% (+1), LAB 48% (+21); LD 7% (-6); PC 14% (-3); Independents and Others 15% (-12)
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« Reply #123 on: May 02, 2012, 08:08:39 am »
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Welsh Assembly regional (change since 2011): CON 13% (-10), LAB 33% (-4), LD 9% (+1), PC 22% (+4)

UKIP 10% (+5), GRN 9% (+6), OTH 3% (-4).
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« Reply #124 on: May 03, 2012, 02:32:32 am »
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Just voted.
Abdul Khayum (Lab)
Against elected mayor
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Not a fan of UKIP, to put it mildly
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